(See Full Article in Seeking Alpha 3/26)
Biopharmaceutical Downdraft 15% From February Highs (IBB$239)
Large Cap Biopharmaceutical Stocks Are Core Holdings: ABBV, AMGN, GILD
The biotech frenzy of MoMo investing is over so it is time to invest longer term with quality companies. If the sector can hold at February lows, even treading water could prevent further damage. We are still up 5-10% YTD depending on index or ETF so even with another 7% sell-off the bull is intact as investors are up at least 60% from 2013 gains. You are up more than 70% over one year depending on which Rayno Life Science stocks you are holding.
This week we will review all five Key Trends of our life science models to see what has changed since the big move in January.
First let’s look at Large Cap Biopharma which has been hit hard from the news from congressmen led by Henry Waxman scrutinizing biological drug pricing with Gilead (GILD) HCV drug as an example.
Here is an analysis done on February 11 with large cap price updates as of 3/25. Many of these stocks are lower now. Five are on our focus list: ALXN, AMGN,BIIB, GILD, REGN.
Widely Held Large Cap Biopharma Stocks
Company | Ticker | Price | Market | 2014 Rev | P/S | F P/E | PEG | B/Sh | Stock | 1 yr. | 52 wk | Price |
Cap | est $B | est | %YTD | %Up | High | 3/25 | ||||||
Abbvie | ABBV | 49.5 | 78.6 | 19 | 4.14 | 13.73 | 1.42 | 2.22 | -6 | 36.7 | 54.8 | 51.75 |
Bristol Myers | BMY | 52 | 82.9 | 15.75 | 5.26 | 29.8 | 2.42 | 8.95 | -2.1 | 40.7 | 56.8 | 51 |
Alexion | ALXN | 170 | 33.4 | 2 | 16.5 | 33 | 4.73 | 12.13 | 28 | 81.6 | 185 | 153 |
Amgen | AMGN | 120 | 90.8 | 19.6 | 4.6 | 14.6 | 2.52 | 29.3 | 5.45 | 38.6 | 124.5 | 120.65 |
Biogen Idec | BIIB | 318 | 75.1 | 8.55 | 8.78 | 22.9 | 2.23 | 36.5 | 13.7 | 93.4 | 321.2 | 312 |
Celgene | CELG | 157 | 64.5 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 16.3 | 1.92 | 14.3 | -7.3 | 56.4 | 174.7 | 144.75 |
Gilead | GILD | 81 | 124.2 | 16 | 7.75 | 14.5 | 1.27 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 98 | 84.4 | 74 |
Regeneron | REGN | 304 | 29.9 | 2.6 | 11.5 | 57.1 | 1.37 | 17.2 | 10.4 | 83.3 | 319.8 | 309 |
We will update Rayno portfolio changes at the end of the week. FBIOX is our core holding. If underweight large caps are in your portfolio add ABBV, AMGN,GILD. Small cap additions are Ariad (ARIA $3.50) and Achillion (ACHN $7.67).
Here is the Rayno Biopharmaceutical Portfolio (ETFs only for comparison) as of 1/31/14 with current prices added. We are deleting Exelixis (EXEL) and adding Abbvie (ABBV $52) in the portfolio as of today.
Rayno Biopharmaceutical Picks
2014 | Original | P | Price | Price | Price | % Ret | Price | %Ret | Price | |
Summary | Recomm | Apr’11 | Dec’12 | 1-Nov | 11/1/13 | 1/31/14 | YTD | 3/26 | ||
2014 | ||||||||||
Achillion | ACHN | 3/4/13 | 8.6 | 2.53 | -68 | 3.31 | 0 | 3.78 | ||
Alexion | ALXN | 2/2/09 | 35 | 100.8 | 95.4 | 123.4 | 2.26 | 158.73 | 19.5 | 156.25 |
Alkermes | ALKS | 3/22/13 | 23 | 18.5 | 35.6 | 59.29 | 48.68 | 0.3 | 44.82 | |
Albany Mol | AMRI | 2/10/11 | 4.7 | 4.32 | 5.3 | 13.2 | 140.7 | 10.7 | 6.15 | 18.54 |
Astex | ASTX* | 12/27/11 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 8.5 | 49.48 | acq | |||
Amgen | AMGN | 2/2/09 | 55 | 54 | 87.4 | 118.7 | 13.1 | 118.95 | 4.3 | 122.53 |
Biogen | BIIB | 2/2/09 | 49 | 73.25 | 149 | 243 | 48.85 | 312.64 | 11.8 | 313.47 |
Cephalon | CEPH* | 2/2/09 | 77 | 76.92 | 80.18 | 30 | acq | |||
Cubist | CBST | 2/2/09 | 22 | 28.35 | 42.4 | 61.9 | 19.2 | 73.9 | 6.1 | 73.35 |
Exelixis | EXEL | 9/2/10 | 3.3 | 11.12 | 4.58 | 4.97 | 1.97 | 6.88 | 12.2 | 4.24 |
First Trust | FBT | 4/15/10 | 38 | 41.3 | 46 | 64.6 | 29.6 | 75.26 | 8.8 | 78.55 |
Gilead | GILD | 2/2/09 | 51 | 42.81 | 72.7(s) | 71 | 40.67 | 80.65 | 7.4 | 74.81 |
iShares ETF | IBB | 2/2/09 | 71 | 101.1 | 137.8 | 206 | 29.9 | 245.91 | 8.3 | 243.23 |
SPDR Bio | XBI | 86.38 | 119.6 | 23.7 | 150.21 | 15.4 | 147.74 | |||
Fido Biotech | FBIOX | 205.5 | 13.1 | 198.94 | ||||||
ImmunoGen | IMGN | 12/22/11 | 12 | 12.5 | 16.3 | 34.8 | 15 | 2.2 | 15.42 | |
Optimer | OPTR* | 2/18/11 | 12 | 13.8 | 9.2 | 12.8 | 60 | acq | ||
Pharmacycl | PCYC | 6/8/12 | 38 | 58 | 122 | 47.8 | 133.07 | 25.8 | 111.79 | |
Regeneron | REGN | 2/2/09 | 18 | 45.43 | 173 | 286 | 34.5 | 288.6 | 4.85 | 315.97 |
Roche ADR | RHHBY | 1/30/14 | 67 | 68 | 0 | 37.51 | ||||
Seattle Gen. | SGEN | 2/2/09 | 9.5 | 15.72 | 23.3 | 39 | 41 | 44.86 | 12.5 | 47.76 |
Vertex | VRTX | 11/15/13 | 63 | 79 | 6.4 | 72.57 | ||||
ViroPharma | VPHM* | 2/2/09 | 12 | 20.05 | 22.9 | 39 | 29.4 | 50(acq) | ||
*acquired |