ASCO Update #4- No Boost For Oncology Stocks… Update-6/4 MDVN, PCYC, SGEN

Update 6/4 here Snap- back rally and big green screen!

http://alma-de-cuba.com/galleries/friday-21st-and-saturday-22nd-august/ Update 6/3….. Daily Performance-from list below 9 winners, 12 losers

Rayno Biopharmaceutical Picks in go bold

Winners: AGIO, INCY, SGEN, EPZM, MDVN, IMGN, GILD. CELG, PCYC.

Losers: CLVS, ARIA, NLNK,CLDX, BLUE, LBIO, PBYI, KPTI, BMY, AZN, ICPT, XLRN.

30 Day winners: MDVN, PCYC, SGEN

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Rayno Large Cap Biopharma: ABBV, ALXN, AMGN, BIIB, GILD, REGN with ETF FBT: Up 3.24% over 30 days, YTD Up 7.65%, Compared to IBB up 6.1% YTD.

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Update 6/2 Oncology Stocks

We will summarize significant presentations on our biopharmaceutical picks tomorrow but trading today on the list was split with 12 stocks up and 12 down. Biggest losers were : AGIO, CLDX, CLVS, EPZM, IMGN, NLNK and PBYI. Biggest winners were: ARIA, AZN, CELG, PCYC , RHHBY and SGEN. See Rayno Biopharmaceutical focus stocks.

Clearly valuations on many of the mid-cap stocks could not be supported by the product pipelines.

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No Change in Allocation-Stick With Large Cap Biopharmaceuticals

Many Mid-Cap Oncology Stocks Are Down Over Past 30 Days

A life science portfolio should have core holdings in large cap biopharmaceuticals and we have been recommending these six: ABBV, ALXN, AMGN, BIIB, GILD, REGN. See my May 1 Large Cap review with metrics. We also recently reiterated the ETF FBT ($77.12) up 11.62% YTD as a trade for balancing the core portfolio. Another core position is the Roche Holding Ltd. ADR) (RHHBY $37.07) up 5.58% YTD which is a large cap positioned broadly in both biopharma and diagnostics and pays a 3% dividend.

  • Biogen Idec  (BIIB) is up 3.4% today and 14.2% YTD with an upgrade by J.P.Morgan (JPM) and a deal with  Array (ARRY) for autoimmune disorders.
  • Alexion (ALXN) is up 25.6% YTD and is growing revenues over 5 years at 40% focused in ultra-rare diseases.
  • Regeneron (REGN) is up 11% despite a sell-off from the $340 top in February.
  • Gilead (GILD) is up 9.2% and is still good value with a forward PE of 9.6.
  • Abbvie (ABBV) and Amgen (AMGN) are laggards but still up YTD and pay dividends.

So after the recent Q1 speculative bubble there is no need to chase volatile small and mid-caps unless you are an experienced trader and understand product pipelines. MoMo stocks like Aegerion Pharmaceuticals (AEGR), Celldex Therapeutics (CLDX) and Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) were caught in the downdraft and are way off Q1 2014 highs, trading on technicals not fundamentals.

ASCO Focus Stocks-Updated List As of 6/2

 

Stock Company Price 30 day Price  Daily
5/30/14 Perf % 6/2/14 Perf %
XLRN Acceleron 29.4 -14.56 30 1
AGIO Agios 35.77 -14.62 33.85 -3.71
ARIA Ariad 6.43 -11.4 6.94 7.43
AZN AstraZeneca 72.16 -8.8 73.37 1.62
BLUE bluebird 22.81 15.5 22.91 -0.91
BMY BristolMyers 49.94 -0.4 49.09 -1.31
CELG Celgene 152.92 3.9 154.9 1.2
CLDX Celdex 14.66 -2.6 13.69 -6.3
CLVS Clovis 51.22 -5.4 47.75 -6.76
EPZM Epizyme 23.35 -7.47 22.03 -8.13
GILD GileadSci 80.81 2.9 81.55 0.42
ICPT Intercept 236.62 -10.9 234.1 1.08
IMGN ImmunoGen 11.68 -9.7 11 -6.94
INCY Incyte 49.45 1.87 48.89 -1.33
KPTI KaryoPharm 26.07 -2.76 26.48 0.88
LBIO LionBio 7.5 -12.8 7 -6.67
MDVN Medivation 72.93 21 73.07 -0.33
NLNK NewLink 20.3 -8.14 19.54 -4.73
PBYI PumaBio 75.37 -0.68 57.06 -25.34
PCYC Pharmacyclics 88.82 -6.27 91.21 2.68
SGEN SeattleGene 33.27 -13.8 34.37 3

Notables with widely held stocks as of 5/30:

Agios (AGIO) down 14.6%.

Ariad (ARIA) is down 11.4%.

Celgene (CELG) up 4%.

Clovis Oncology (CLVS) down 5.4%.

Immunogen (IMGN) down 9.7%.

Incyte (INCY) up 1.9%.

Medivation (MDVN) up 21%.

Pharmacyclics (PCYC) down 6.27%.

Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) flat.

Seattle Genetics (SGEN ) down 13.8%

The more speculative small and mid cap allocated ETF XBI has been boosted by ASCO up 4.11% over the past month but is still up only 2.55% YTD. But FBT is also up 4.19%.

In summary it is very hard to trade individual stocks based on anticipated ASCO news. The one big winner on the above list is Medivation (MDVN) with positive data expected from enzalutamide for prostate and breast cancer. Most stocks on the above list are losers.The overall biopharmaceutical sector is up about 4% over 30 days but the gains are not attributed solely to any breakthrough oncology therapies from ASCO. Nonetheless we need to look at specific drug data from the meeting and summarize stock performance after ASCO next week.

 

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