Biotech Stocks Holding At February Lows- Still Up 9% YTD

(See Full Article in Seeking Alpha 3/26)

Biopharmaceutical Downdraft 15% From February Highs (IBB$239)

Large Cap Biopharmaceutical Stocks Are Core Holdings: ABBV, AMGN, GILD

The biotech frenzy of MoMo investing is over so it is time to invest longer term with quality companies. If the sector can hold at February lows, even treading water could prevent further damage. We are still up 5-10% YTD depending on index or ETF so even with another 7% sell-off the bull is intact as investors are up at least 60% from 2013 gains. You are up more than 70% over one year depending on which Rayno Life Science stocks you are holding.

This week we will review all five Key Trends of our life science models to see what has changed since the big move in January.

First let’s look at Large Cap Biopharma which has been hit hard from the news from congressmen led by Henry Waxman scrutinizing biological drug pricing with Gilead (GILD) HCV drug as an example.

Here is an analysis done on February 11 with large cap price updates as of 3/25. Many of these stocks are lower now. Five are on our focus list: ALXN, AMGN,BIIB, GILD, REGN.

Widely Held Large Cap Biopharma Stocks

Company Ticker Price Market 2014 Rev P/S F P/E PEG B/Sh Stock 1 yr. 52 wk  Price
Cap est $B est %YTD %Up High  3/25
Abbvie ABBV 49.5 78.6 19 4.14 13.73 1.42 2.22 -6 36.7 54.8  51.75
Bristol Myers BMY 52 82.9 15.75 5.26 29.8 2.42 8.95 -2.1 40.7 56.8  51
Alexion ALXN 170 33.4 2 16.5 33 4.73 12.13 28 81.6 185  153
Amgen AMGN 120 90.8 19.6 4.6 14.6 2.52 29.3 5.45 38.6 124.5  120.65
Biogen Idec BIIB 318 75.1 8.55 8.78 22.9 2.23 36.5 13.7 93.4 321.2  312
Celgene CELG 157 64.5 7.6 8.5 16.3 1.92 14.3 -7.3 56.4 174.7  144.75
Gilead GILD 81 124.2 16 7.75 14.5 1.27 7.1 7.8 98 84.4  74
Regeneron REGN 304 29.9 2.6 11.5 57.1 1.37 17.2 10.4 83.3 319.8  309

We will update Rayno portfolio changes at the end of the week. FBIOX is our core holding. If underweight large caps are in your portfolio add ABBV, AMGN,GILD. Small cap additions are Ariad (ARIA $3.50) and Achillion (ACHN $7.67).

Here is the Rayno Biopharmaceutical Portfolio (ETFs only for comparison) as of 1/31/14 with current prices added. We are deleting Exelixis (EXEL) and adding Abbvie (ABBV $52) in the portfolio as of today.

Rayno Biopharmaceutical Picks

2014 Original P Price Price Price % Ret Price %Ret  Price
Summary Recomm Apr’11 Dec’12 1-Nov 11/1/13 1/31/14 YTD  3/26
2014
Achillion ACHN 3/4/13 8.6 2.53 -68 3.31 0  3.78
Alexion ALXN 2/2/09 35 100.8 95.4 123.4 2.26 158.73 19.5  156.25
Alkermes ALKS 3/22/13 23 18.5 35.6 59.29 48.68 0.3  44.82
Albany Mol AMRI 2/10/11 4.7 4.32 5.3 13.2 140.7 10.7 6.15  18.54
Astex ASTX* 12/27/11 1.6 2.7 8.5 49.48 acq
Amgen AMGN 2/2/09 55 54 87.4 118.7 13.1 118.95 4.3  122.53
Biogen BIIB 2/2/09 49 73.25 149 243 48.85 312.64 11.8  313.47
Cephalon CEPH* 2/2/09 77 76.92 80.18 30 acq
Cubist CBST 2/2/09 22 28.35 42.4 61.9 19.2 73.9 6.1  73.35
Exelixis EXEL 9/2/10 3.3 11.12 4.58 4.97 1.97 6.88 12.2  4.24
First Trust FBT 4/15/10 38 41.3 46 64.6 29.6 75.26 8.8  78.55
Gilead GILD 2/2/09 51 42.81 72.7(s) 71 40.67 80.65 7.4  74.81
iShares ETF IBB 2/2/09 71 101.1 137.8 206 29.9 245.91 8.3  243.23
SPDR Bio XBI 86.38 119.6 23.7 150.21 15.4  147.74
Fido Biotech FBIOX 205.5 13.1  198.94
ImmunoGen IMGN 12/22/11 12 12.5 16.3 34.8 15 2.2  15.42
Optimer OPTR* 2/18/11 12 13.8 9.2 12.8 60 acq
Pharmacycl PCYC 6/8/12 38 58 122 47.8 133.07 25.8  111.79
Regeneron REGN 2/2/09 18 45.43 173 286 34.5 288.6 4.85  315.97
Roche ADR RHHBY 1/30/14 67 68 0  37.51
Seattle Gen. SGEN 2/2/09 9.5 15.72 23.3 39 41 44.86 12.5  47.76
Vertex VRTX 11/15/13 63 79 6.4  72.57
ViroPharma VPHM* 2/2/09 12 20.05 22.9 39 29.4 50(acq)
*acquired

 

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