Update-3 JY 1:20 PM EDT    Market Rallies on Jobs Report Despite Virus Surge -NAZ up 1%, XBI up 1%.

  • Recent long trades: trending positive-AXDX CRSP HOLX PACB; nibbling back into VIR; VCYT- coming back.
  • Vaccine Update: MRNA down 7% on timelines delay? BNTX up another 3% on positive mRNA vaccine prelim results. INO and NVAX up.
  • Core holdings in Coronavirus stocks: GILD up 0.87% to $76.75, GNMK up 0.74% to $15, HOLX up 2.8% to $58.60, TDOC up 5% to $207.

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Update-2 June 30 12:15p EDT, NASDAQ up 1.38%; biotechs mixed.

  • Recent long trades up: AXDX, HOLX, MYOV; lagging VCYT.

Update-1 June 29 Rally day good for small caps IWM up 3.45%, biotechs flat.

  • COVID Diagnostics stocks weak: QDEL down 4.78% to $210 handle ; GNMK down 3.62% to $13.58. Genmark later announced news of Respiratory Panel (RP2) including SARS-CoV-2.
  • COVID Vaccine stocks continue to run:  BNTX up 5.9%, INO up 5.7%, MRNA up 1.3%, NVAX up 8%.
  • Fauci on coronavirus : may not get to herd immunity even if vaccine is 70-75% effective. But will need to educate people on vaccines because of anti-vaccination movement.
  • With all the focus on COVID testing why don’t we know how all the various antibody and PCR tests perform? And here are still many issues on test availability and costs especially from primary care physicians.

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Wild Week for COVID Vaccine Stocks with rising Infection rates

Cases are Surging just as many States are Re-Opening

Asymptomatic transmission becoming a factor?

Friday was a risk -off day for biotech stocks as the XBI took a 3.28% hit on profit taking and concerns that the pandemic could drag on through the summer. Regional spikes in virus cases in AZ, FLA an TX raised concerns about the “V shaped economic recovery” model.  All the major indices were down about about 2.4% for the day. Peak prices were hit on Tuesday for the major indices and ETFs like the IWM and QQQ.

Volatility is normal for the coronavirus sector with shifts in strength weekly. But over this past week the commentary focused on the need for a coronavirus vaccine. Vaccine availability even by the end of 2020 seems to be a risky assumption but investors swarmed into Inovio Pharmacueticals (INO) up 97% for the week after the Company announced government DOD funding of $71M for a device that delivers its vaccine. Inovio is in a Phase 1 trial for its vaccine and the Company has a market cap of $5B (similar to Novavax). Inovio should be releasing Phase 1 data in July.

  • Other major major vaccine players were mixed: BNTX was up 4.05% to $62.13, Novavax (NVAX) down 7.36% to $77.39, and Moderna (MRNA) down 1.16% to $61.28 .The leadership among these smaller players has changed many times but MRNA stock has fallen behind this month.
  • Quidel (QDEL) regained momentum up over 9% for the week hitting $221 Friday after testing levels under $200 earlier in the week. Covid testing is more important than ever but performance of various tests (antibody and PCR) is not well documented, and market leaders have not emerged.
  • Vir Biotechnology (VIR) may be the most volatile of all biotech stocks down $13.88% on Friday to $38.33 after hitting highs of $48.56 on Thursday. Its previous high was $60.20 spiking on 2/27/20! We sold our small positions last week but will get back in as news develops on their antibody therapies for HBV, FLU and COVID.

A risk-off situation is developing as COVID infection gains correlates with market losses and the NASDAQ is up 8.74% YTD.

Coronavirus Pure Plays Week Ending June 27, 2020

  • Large cap companies are not included in this grid: JNJ, NVS, GSK, PFE, RHHBY etc.
Company Stock 3/6 P %Perf 3/16 P MCap 4/30 6/27/P %Perf
week $B 3/16 YTD
Co-Diagnostics CODX 12.89 -8.83 9.09 0.226 11.34 18.08 19.2
Gilead Sci GILD 80.23 8.5 68.9 87.06 84 74.57 14.76
Genmark Dx GNMK 4.54 0.275 12.51 14.09 192.93
Inovio INO 14.09 166.31 6.13 1.12 12.03 29.98 808
Moderna MRNA 29.61 8.6 26.49 9.77 46 61.28 213.3
Regeneron REGN 494.43 8.3 440.83 48.5 525.9 611.36 62.8
Teledoc TDOC 135.9 9.6 116,74 8.49 164.6 193.26 130.8
VIr BIO VIR 45.7 15.1 45.76 4.61 30.51 38.83 208.8
BioNTec BNTX 40 47.48 62.13 50
ChemBio Dx CEMI 2.36 12.7 3.27 129.2
Hologic HOLX 32.25 50.1 53.52 4.52
NovaVax NVAX 6.91 18.13 77.39 1844
Quidel QDEL 74.2 139 221 194.55
IBB 135.16 12.16
XBI 110.42 16.1
QQQ 240.22 13

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