Archive | Macro

Reflation trade turns cautious: 3% Market Sell-Off

The market had a broadbase sell-off today with weakness in all sectors especially commodity stocks such as energy and materials. The 30% rally since March 9th has come to a screeching halt. A global growth warning from the World bank gave a bleak report cutting estimates for 2009 from a 1.7% contraction to 2.9% contraction. […]

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Ten Year Treasury Auction drives Yield to 3.99%

The reflation trade got a big boost from Treasuries today as the latest auction brought yields of close to 4%, much higher than the pricing of the May 9th delayed auction when yields were about 3.19%. The ongoing run on oil didn’t help matters as crude futures rose to $71.83 a rise of 1.84% a […]

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Reflation trade picks up after Auction

Auction Goes Well The Treasury sold $35 B of 5 Year Bonds at 2.32% higher than the last auction of 2.19% so analysts felt this was a good sign because it was the second strong auction in a row after yesterday’s 2 Year auction. Foreign investors now own more than half of the $6.35T Treasuries […]

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Reflation trade kicks up

The reflation trade picked up the MO today with big winners among commodity and precious metal stocks. Dollar weakness,10 year treasuries hitting 3.2%, and China’s appetite for raw materials and energy are drawing investors to copper,silver,titanium and energy raw materials. Coal has been on a tear. Risk appetite has boosted the Euro and other currencies; […]

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Macro Reflation trade: Deflation risk persists

An April 14 story on Bloomberg said that the ECB may have to lower interest rates below 1.25% next month to counter the worse recession in six decades. And the FED continued its quantitative easing Monday purchasing $7.37B in Treasuries and $5.15 B in Agency debt. Treasuries ended strong with the Ten Year Tsy Bond […]

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Macro Reflation Trade-Update from Dec. 16, 2008

In December 2008 after the FED action to open money spigots we offered trading ideas primarily the following:precious metals, short treasury bonds,long industrial metals and long high yield corporate bonds. Here is what has moved since then: Gold and silver stocks up 12-20% FCX up 21% PCN Corp Bond Fund up 50% Gold up 8%,Silver […]

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Macro Reflation/Deflation update Feb 11,2009

Precious metals and mining stocks were strong today.Gold is up $26 to $928 and Silver up 42 cents to $13.4. Money flowed back into treasuries with a successful 10 year auction yielding 2.75%. As a result TSY short(TBT) is down again 2% at $45.25.Watch corporate bonds for stability, doing well since mid-Dec. Reviewing again meltdown […]

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