Swine Flu fear boost Biotechs

The U.S. Government declared an emergency Sunday and released 25% of Relenza and Tamiflu antiviral treatment courses for use by healthcare providers should cases escalate. Tamiflu was developed by Gilead and manufactured and sold by Roche; Relenza is made by GlaxoSmithKline. A travel advisory to Mexico may be issued today where there are 2000 cases […]

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Macro Reflation trade: Deflation risk persists

An April 14 story on Bloomberg said that the ECB may have to lower interest rates below 1.25% next month to counter the worse recession in six decades. And the FED continued its quantitative easing Monday purchasing $7.37B in Treasuries and $5.15 B in Agency debt. Treasuries ended strong with the Ten Year Tsy Bond […]

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Q1 Biotechnology Update

The March rally improved the performance of the Life Science sector in Q1 but trailed gains in the technology sector. The S&P Healthcare Index lost 8.5% in Q1 compared to the S&P 500 loss of 11.7%. The S&P Technology Sector gained about 2% in 2009. The Rayno Life Science Portfolio was down only 2% including […]

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Reflation trade: print print print to fight deflation

Another $1.1 Trillion to be thrown out by the FED with $300M to buy treasury securities and more purchases of mortgage backed securities and agency debt. Big rally in Treasury bonds.FED is market maker of last resort. All markets rally.S&P up 2.4%. The dollar is down 2-3% against Yen and Euro. Movers today: Bonds,consumer cyclical,chips,financials,gold,gold […]

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Big Rally in Biopharm coming off technical bottoms

Biotech and large cap pharmaceutical stocks rallied today overcoming fears of the Obama administration healthcare initiatives that created a bearish pall on the industry. The mood is reminiscent of Hilary care in the early nineties (see my article in Genetic Engineering News 1/1/09 on the Waxman agenda). The selloff since mid-February has been brutal with […]

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Blockbuster mergers fail to lift Biotech stocks

Roche boosted its price to $95 to buy Genentech as expected and Merck will buy Schering Plough for a cash and stock deal valued at $41B including $10.50 in cash. M&A was one of the themes expected to support biotech stocks in 2009 and smaller deals have been executed or are in the works. The […]

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Risk appetite fades-reflation ebbing–Feb.25,2009

The treasury sold $32 Billion in Five Year Notes today to yield 1.985%.On Thursday the FED will sell 7 year notes for the first time since 1993. There is plenty of demand out there for “safe” treasuries so inflation appears to be under control. A slight uptick in Tsy yields is expected after Thursday. The […]

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Macro Reflation Trade-Update from Dec. 16, 2008

In December 2008 after the FED action to open money spigots we offered trading ideas primarily the following:precious metals, short treasury bonds,long industrial metals and long high yield corporate bonds. Here is what has moved since then: Gold and silver stocks up 12-20% FCX up 21% PCN Corp Bond Fund up 50% Gold up 8%,Silver […]

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Macro Reflation/Deflation update Feb 11,2009

Precious metals and mining stocks were strong today.Gold is up $26 to $928 and Silver up 42 cents to $13.4. Money flowed back into treasuries with a successful 10 year auction yielding 2.75%. As a result TSY short(TBT) is down again 2% at $45.25.Watch corporate bonds for stability, doing well since mid-Dec. Reviewing again meltdown […]

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JPMorgan Healthcare Conference#2

JPMorgan Healthcare Conference Notes from January 13-14, 2009 Rod Raynovich Healthcare –“The Big Idea” for 2009? As the Conference winds down today the buzz has remained positive despite being buffeted this week by a nasty stock market, negative economic indicators and the ongoing dreary credit meltdown. Biotech has seen tough times before but the life […]

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