H1N1 Flu Pandemic is here but Moderate in Severity

Drug Stocks rally on Flu News On Thursday June 11,the WHO raised its alert on swine flu (H1N1) to the Phase 6 pandemic level calling further spread of the virus inevitable. The Director- General of WHO Dr. Margaret Chan said, “Globally we have good reason to believe that this pandemic, at least in its early […]

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Ten Year Treasury Auction drives Yield to 3.99%

The reflation trade got a big boost from Treasuries today as the latest auction brought yields of close to 4%, much higher than the pricing of the May 9th delayed auction when yields were about 3.19%. The ongoing run on oil didn’t help matters as crude futures rose to $71.83 a rise of 1.84% a […]

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Reflation trade picks up after Auction

Auction Goes Well The Treasury sold $35 B of 5 Year Bonds at 2.32% higher than the last auction of 2.19% so analysts felt this was a good sign because it was the second strong auction in a row after yesterday’s 2 Year auction. Foreign investors now own more than half of the $6.35T Treasuries […]

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Perfect Storm of Financial Distress from BIO

BIOblog for GEN BIO Super Session Weathering the Perfect Storm of Financial Distress Rod Raynovich 5/20/09 At the end of this session someone in the audience asked, ”You described the Perfect Storm but didn’t tell us how to weather it?” Vaughn Kailian answered, ”Wrap yourself in cash.” But 135 public companies have less than one […]

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Update on Biomarkers From BIO Conf

BIOblog for GEN Update on Biomarkers Rod Raynovich 5/19/09 In the October 1 issue of GEN I wrote a review of the impact of genomics in diagnostics and the potential of “companion diagnostics” or the synergy of diagnostics with therapeutics. Biomarkers will continue to be a hot topic. [pg] Recent scientific developments in genomics and […]

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Reflation trade kicks up

The reflation trade picked up the MO today with big winners among commodity and precious metal stocks. Dollar weakness,10 year treasuries hitting 3.2%, and China’s appetite for raw materials and energy are drawing investors to copper,silver,titanium and energy raw materials. Coal has been on a tear. Risk appetite has boosted the Euro and other currencies; […]

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Swine Flu fear boost Biotechs

The U.S. Government declared an emergency Sunday and released 25% of Relenza and Tamiflu antiviral treatment courses for use by healthcare providers should cases escalate. Tamiflu was developed by Gilead and manufactured and sold by Roche; Relenza is made by GlaxoSmithKline. A travel advisory to Mexico may be issued today where there are 2000 cases […]

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Macro Reflation trade: Deflation risk persists

An April 14 story on Bloomberg said that the ECB may have to lower interest rates below 1.25% next month to counter the worse recession in six decades. And the FED continued its quantitative easing Monday purchasing $7.37B in Treasuries and $5.15 B in Agency debt. Treasuries ended strong with the Ten Year Tsy Bond […]

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Q1 Biotechnology Update

The March rally improved the performance of the Life Science sector in Q1 but trailed gains in the technology sector. The S&P Healthcare Index lost 8.5% in Q1 compared to the S&P 500 loss of 11.7%. The S&P Technology Sector gained about 2% in 2009. The Rayno Life Science Portfolio was down only 2% including […]

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Reflation trade: print print print to fight deflation

Another $1.1 Trillion to be thrown out by the FED with $300M to buy treasury securities and more purchases of mortgage backed securities and agency debt. Big rally in Treasury bonds.FED is market maker of last resort. All markets rally.S&P up 2.4%. The dollar is down 2-3% against Yen and Euro. Movers today: Bonds,consumer cyclical,chips,financials,gold,gold […]

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