SnowBlog: El Nino on the Way in Sep?

End of LaNina?

The weather is certainly in the  news as drought approaches levels not seen since the 30’s. But several reports recently indicate a shift coming in the fall toward an El Nino pattern.I will check in with noted weather forecasters to see if the 2012-13 ski season will be better for the West.

From WSJ August 13.

“El Niño, a Spanish reference to the Christ child because it is often observed around Christmas, refers to a rapid and prolonged warming of the Pacific Ocean, which disrupts normal weather patterns and would exacerbate the dryness in West Africa, meteorologists say. Weather models point to El Niño forming in September.”

imageChocolate Makers Watch the Weather – WSJ.com

NOAA Climate Forecast: Dry in NW, wet in SW but Persistent Drought in MidCentral and the West Near Term

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif

” Nearly all of the dynamical models favor the onset of El Niño beginning in July- September 2012 (Fig. 6). As in previous months, several statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions through the remainder of the year, but the average statistical forecast of Niño-3.4 increased compared to last month. Supported by model forecasts and the continued warmth across the Pacific Ocean, there is increased confidence for a weak-to-moderate El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2012-13. El Niño conditions are likely to develop during August or September 2012 .”

 

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