Clinical Diagnostic Stocks Were Hit By Bio-Bubble or Revenue Miss

Potential upside in EXAS, NSTG and NEOG all are Rayno Dx and Tools picks.

  • With “momentum trading” days over for now, revenue growth is the focus.
  • Companies with disappointing Q1 revenues: Abaxis (ABAX), Alere (ALR), Response Genetics (RGDX) and Quidel (QDEL). Q2 recovery will be key.
  • Many of these stocks are losers YTD after a great year in 2013; stocks peaked in Feb/March.
  • Rayno Dx and Tools winners YTD: Illumina (ILMN), Sequenom (SQNM), Hologic (HOLX), Exact Sciences (EXAS) and  ThermoFisher (TMO).
  • GenProbe acquisition by Hologic (HOLX) is gold standard for valuation at P/S of 5.
  • Look for traction with ExactSci (EXAS), NanoString Tech (NSTG) and Neogen (NEOG ) with upgrade support from bankers.
  • Illumina (ILMN) and Pacific Bio (PACB) are sequencing plays but are not in analysis below.

 Clinical Diagnostics and Tools Stocks

Company Ticker Price Rev RevQ4 Rev Price 2014 P/S PE PEG P/B Market
My’11 2012 2013 2013 31-May RevEst Cap
GenProbe* GPRO 80 642 143 $-000- sold 66 576 5 64 1.9 700 $B
Abaxis ABAX 28 179 40.8 176.4 41 198 4.7 67 2.3 4.8 0.937
Alere ALR 36 2,710 772 3,030 35.8 3,040 1.2 n/a n/a 2 3.58
Cepheid CPHD 31 331 113.3 401.3 45 459.7 6.8 n/a n/a 8.8 3.14
ExactSci EXAS 4.15 1 4.1 13.48 11.6 328 n/a n/a 7.4 1.12
GenMark Dx GNMK 11 25 16 n/a n/a 4.4 0.458
GenomHlth GHDX 26 236 68.8 259.2 26 282 2.9 n/a n/a 5.8 0.812
Hologic HOLX 2,160 612.4 2,490 24.4 2,480 2.4 n/a n/a 3.4 6.75
Immucor** BLUD 20 345 83.3 sold 27 n/a 5.5 21 2.2 n/a n/a
Luminex LMNX 20 203 55.2 213.4 17 231 3.4 46 1.2 2.5 0.722
Meridian VIVO 23 179 44.8 188.7 20.4 193.6 4.2 23 1.9 5.4 0.846
NanostringT NSTG New 10.1 $31.50 14.9 47.9 6.3 n/a n/a 7 0.269
Nanosphere NSPH 3.4 10 1.35 19 9.4 n/a n/a 3 0.136
Neogen NEOG 41 194 59.6 225 37.8 245.7 6.9 50 2.7 4.8 1.39
Orasure OSUR 89.4 28.8 98.9 6.32 103.6 3.5 n/a n/a 2.3 352.9
Qiagen QGEN 20 1,250 363 1,310 23 1,370 3.9 79 9.4 2 5.35
Quidel QDEL 15 156 50.2 175.4 22.7 175.7 5 54 n/a 3.4 776.8
Resp Genet RGDX 2 18.1 22.2 2 n/a n/a 16 0.04
Sequenom SQNM 71.5 45.1 162.4 3.07 214 1.3 n/a n/a n/a 0.357
SeraCare# SRLS 3.7 46.2 11 sold 4 43.5 1.8 36 n/a 40 n/a
Techne TECH 81 312 84 330 87.8 357 9.4 29 2.3 4 3,250
ThermoFish. TMO 3470 13,090 116.9 17 2.7 15 2.4 2.3 46,640
TrinityBio TRIB  New 24 110 4.9 59 2.9 3 0.54
** sold for $1.97B to TBG Capital #sold for $80M
* sold for $3.7B to Hologic Names in BOLD are on focus list

Pin It on Pinterest