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Click Here Natural Gas Update-Oversupply Creates Bearish Headwind
Nat gas is in a funk since reaching a high of $4.61 earlier this month. There appears to be some support and a potential pivot in in the $4.05 range. Prices are oversold so look for a rally to the $4.20 range. Average prices have been at $4.39 compared to $8.92 just two years ago. But despite a bullish tone to crude, coal and now even gasoline, nat gas is bearish for the following reasons:
- Prices have not firmed even with recent cold weather. Supply trumps weather.
- Shale gas drilling boom has led to chronic oversupply. Will drillers shift to oil?
- Gas producers are using derivatives to lock in positions.
- Electricity producers can shift from coal to gas but it takes time; tighter environmental regulations could drive the shift.
Temperatures are expected to be normal over the next two weeks with below normal in the SouthEast. Precip will be above normal in Northwest and Northeast.
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