Update-1.. 2/6

Big rain is hitting NorCal. NB many are calling this storm a “Pineapple Express ” but if you click on “AR event” below you will see that it is more based on West to East orographic lifting not necessarily an event out of Hawaii. A technical nuance. Models now showing 6-7 in ppt over 72 hrs an upgrade.

Intellicast – Weather Active Map

Orographic Storm and Big Squeeze Is On

Box of Chocolates storm…..”You never exactly know what you’re going to get”……Howard Sheckter 2/5/15

So says Howard in his AR event storm forecast with 5.9 in. of orographics in play. AR means atmospheric rivers.

It’s Almost ShowTime for “AR” event for CA…..Ready….Set Dump….. | Mammoth Weather by Howard Sheckter

Snow above 7000 ft and On the Warm Side


Snow/Rain Mix 2-4 in of Water.

“This could be the base storm we have been waiting for with as much as 2-3 feet of Sierra Cement from MC Coy Station to the top of Mammoth Mountain by Monday night.”

Saturday/Sunday 2/7-8/15 from NOAA

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So big dumps in NW and Canadian Rockies

But high pressure block still lurks off CA Coast

Meantime there is snow in Winter Park and Steamboat CO

But still warm in MT

No rain in San Francisco through January but flooding PPT is on its way

Synopsis: There is an approximately 50-60% chance of El Niño within the late Northern Hemisphere winter and early spring, with ENSO-neutral slightly favored thereafter.

Wet Warm Spring for West



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