2018 Biopharmaceutical Performance-Large Caps: Big winners were Merck and Vertex…Update- Rally Underway

11/16…TSRO Alert at $35, Up 32%, Company is for Sale

11/15p buy Gabapentin illegally After Close…Traders: click here Rally is intact but needs another green day to confirm.

go to link Big mid-cap 4% movers today: AGIO ARNA (up 21.6%) ARRY CRSP LOXO NBIX ICPT SRPT  XNCR

We added small positions over the past week in ABBV AMRN KPTI QQQ XLV and XBI as trades but assuming a move off the bottom with XBI at $77.59 up 3.55%

11/15 11:20a EST Update …Traders: look for rally today off XBI bottom of $76; green screen underway in mid and small caps. IBB at $103

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11/14 1:30p EST Update…IBB Can’t Hold -Down another 1.55% to $102.42 near 2018 bottom.

  • Big 2018 winner VRTX down 3.2% on profit taking. ABBV and BMY holding.
  • Red screen day in Mid-Caps.
  • XBI at one year lows down 6.81%.

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11/13 Update…IBB down slightly to $104 over two days

  • Trying to hold but choppy in ABBV GILD MRK RHHBY.
  • XBI down 7.1% to $77.28 over one month at 10/24 lows.
  • S&P Core Small Cap IJR down 10.8% over 3 mos.mirroring XBI.
  • Mid-caps mixed but some big winners:AGIO EXEL FOLD IONS NVCR TSRO XNCR.

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2018 Biopharmaceutical Performance-Large Caps and ETFs

Key Takeaways: Large Cap Biopharmaceutical Performance 

  1. The October 2018 sell-off in the market overall has obliterated biopharmaceutical  stock performance with some improvement over the past week. Highs for the year were hit at the end of August for many stocks especially small and mid caps.
  2. The best performers YTD are MRK up 33% and VRTX up 20.48%.
  3. The worst performers YTD are CELG down 29%, BMY down 12.88% and ABBV down 8.19%
  4. The most expensive stock is VRTX with a P/S over 16 and a Fwd PE of 42.34 but it still has a high analyst recommendation rating of 1.8.
  5. CELG looks like a cheap stock but has disappointed all year off a high in January of $109.89.
  6. The XLV healthcare sector is doing very well up 12.4% YTD and up 4% last week on the post-election rally. The FBT is up 10.8% YTD.
  7. The IBB is outperforming the largest biotech fund the Fidelity Biotechnology (FBIOX) by about 3%.

Disclosure: we have reduced many positions in October but we are still long: ABBV, ALXN,BMY, FBIOX, GILD, MRK XLV,( plus new positions above).

COMPANY Ticker Price 2017 Price MCap Rev$B
% Perform
1/15/18 Rev$B Nov2018 2018 2018
YTD P/S Fwd PE Recomm
Abbvie ABBV 100.340 27.27 88.79 135.55 30.95 -8.19 4.38 10.05 2.6
Alexion ALXN 122.710 3.47 123.44 27.51 3.91 3.22 7.03 14.2 1.8
Amgen AMGN 185.040 23 193.16 128.9 23.32 11 5.53 13.37 2.3
Biogen BIIB 335.950 11.84 325.2 66.07 13.23 2.08 4.99 11.64 2
Bristol Myers BMY 62.810 19.92 53.39 89.62 22.04 -12.88 4.07 13.34 2.5
Celgene CELG 106.000 12.5 74.02 52.75 14.73 -29 3.58 7.13 2.1
Gilead Sci GILD 79.020 27.48 71.18 93.43 2.28 -0.64 4.19 10.52 2.2
Merck MRK 58.660 39.8 74.86 201.43 41.73 33.04 4.83 15.9 1.8
Regeneron REGN 366.960 5.52 356.66 38.13 6.2 -5.13 6.15 16.12 2.6
Vertex VRTX 158.000 2.3 180.55 46.65 2.83 20.48 16.49 42.34 1.8
XBI 80.78 -4.82
IBB 107.73 0.9
FBT 137.98 10.8
FBIOX 21.16 -2.63
XLV 92.95 12.42

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