Update -5 …5/6 A wild volatile week catalyzed by FED policy statements. We won’t go into the debate over FED communications about rate hikes and just say that rising rates are a headwind for equities and curb speculation. With higher rates small cap growth has a higher bar of financial metrics.
If your portfolio had an overweight of equities in large cap biopharma, energy and defense stocks this year you beat the S&P500 and NASDAQ, We will summarize the week’s performance in healthcare tis weekend. And technicals matter because earnings and interest rates are in play.
Major indices declined again on Friday with the S&P 500 testing the recent bottom at the 4100 level.
- Healthcare(XLV) was flat for the week at $130 level.
- The IBB tried to rally but sunk on Friday t0 $113.17.
- Large cap biopharmas still near new highs: ABBV,BMY,LLY,MRK.
- ABBV up 4% for the week.
- IWM at 52 week lows.
Update-4 5/4 FED raises rates 50 bps not 75 bps which ignites relief rally! S&P up 3%. NASDAQ up over 3%. Investors believe FED can slow inflation with a “soft landing.” Tech, energy and materials are leaders.Here are latest earnings in some key biopharmas:
- Regeneron (REGN) flat despite beat revs up 17.5% to $2.97B; EYELEA and Dupixent sales strong. GAAP Diluted EPS $8.61.
- Biotech rallied with IBB and XBI showing 2%+ gains; GILD LLY lead among large caps.
- Moderna (MRNA) up 5.81% on Q1 GAAP diluted earnings of $8.1B, q1 revenues of $6.1B. Focus on future mRNA virus programs.
Update -3 …5/1...How did healthcare and biotech sectors compare to other sectors in April the worst month since 2008? Here is some performance data with some key points:
- Large cap biopharma were outstanding performers even though they were off their 2022 tops hit in early April.
- My best picks were Abbvie, Merck and Vertex although ABBV took a hit earnings and clinical news updates.
- All sectors took a 2.5-5% hit last week ( DIA, XLV, SPY. QQQ, etc) . Faring better were commodities and energy (XLV) down 1.29%.
- Fridays sell-off was severe and unusual after the 3% gains on Thursday.
|10/25||%||12/31||% Perf||12/31/21||% Perf||4/30/22||%Perf|
|iShares NAZ Bio||IBB||136||25||151.5||25.7||152.62||-24.7||116.65||-23.57|
|iShares Russell 2k||IWM||163||10||196.4||18.3||222.45||-18.88||184.95||-16.86|
|SPDR S&P Bio||XBI||117||5||140.8||48||111.96||(46..52)||73.83||34|
|T.Rowe Hlth Sci||PRHSX||n/a||5||99.65||n/a||104||-16.09||86.99||-16.42|
|iShares U.S MedT||IHI||50||10||54.83||65.85||-7.69||55.02||-16.45|
|Bristol Myers Sq||BMY||19.69||75.27||20.72|
Update-2 4/29 11a..Sell-Off on AMZN miss and macro headwinds. Abbvie (ABBV) takes a big 8%+ hit on revenue miss, Humira weakness and lower guidance; biosimilar competition coming. immunology portfolio revenues were $6.141B an increase of 6.9%. ABBV still up 5.96% YTD and 29.43% for 12 mos.
Note that technicals flashed a warning for ABBV last week.
Bristol-MyersSquibb (BMY) weak on guidance. sales up on Eliquis and Opdivo but generic competition overseas for Revlimid. Revenues rose 5% for Q1to $11.65B, EPS of $1.96 vs forecast of $1.91 excluding one time items. Yesterday the FDA approved BMS’ an oral heart disease drug a myosin inhibitor. FWD PE is only 9.46.
Worst month since October 2008. Stocks and bonds are losers in bear market.
Update-1 4/28...A broad rally leaves small caps behind. Large Cap Biopharma led by Lilly (LLY) and Merck (MRK) earnings and innovation. AZN, BMY, BIIB, PFE also show good gains. Most small and mid-caps we track are near the bottom of their 52 week range.Despite recent gains we still have bearish undertones and bifurcated market.
- Gilead Sciences (GILD) revenues up 3% with Biktarvy HIV drug up 18% YoY to $2.2B; total revenue for Q1 were up 3% to $6.6B; diluted EPS declined to 0.02 because of,R&D charge from Immunomedics acquisition. Stock able AH. Low PE at 12.49 with a high dividend of 4.66%.
- Despite 3% gains in NASDAQ and 1.8% gains in Russell 2000 the IBB was flat at $119 and the XBI was flat to down at $76 handle.
- Tomorrow we get earnings from ABBV, AZN and BMY all look good and in an uptrend in 2022. Regeneron (REGN) reports on May 4.
Big Biopharma Earnings Week
Abbott and JNJ kicked off healthcare earnings last week and results were just OK with some weakness in MEDTECH stocks with the IHI down 10.17% over five days and 15.61% YTD at $55.57. JNJ had good results but after a brief pop last week the stock has been flat.
On Wednesday Amgen (AMGN) was down 5.30 % after hours to $235.60 on a revenue beat but with. a lag in guidance.More unusual was the request from the IRS to pay billions in back taxes. Total revenues increased 6% to $6.2B with a 2% growth in global product sales. GAAP earnings per share decreased 5% to $2.68. AMGN stock had been in a recovery mode from the $200 level in early January but analysts ratings were in the neutral range.
Futures were buoyed after the close with positive results from Facebook and Qualcomm so we can expect a better day today.Merck (MRK) was up pre-market on an earnings beat. Keytruda sales grew 23% to $4.8B. MRK opened up almost 3% to $86.83.
Eli Lilly (LLY} was up 2.77% to $293 on beat and revenue guidance boost, new obesity drug data.
AS of 10 am EDT large cap biopharma leaders were BMY, MRK, and PFE.
APPL earnings on deck for today. Updates after the close today.