Update-3 11/27 12p EST….Biotech rally underway with XBI at $130. Momentum market.IBB at 142.94.Small caps outpacing large caps.
- Vaccine stocks continue to run: BNTX, MRNA, NVAX.
- Gene editing movers : CRSP, EDIT, NTLA; mid caps strong.
- Large caps winners: AMGN VRTX
Update-2 11/24..Another rotation day with Financials, materials and industrials rallying.A bit frothy with rampant call buying?
- Re-balancing idea- Buy laggards BMY and GILD.Both with nice dividends.
Update-1 NOV 23 DOW Up 1.12% ld by Financials, energy and industrials.
- Healthcare continues to lag with XLV down 0.26% to $108.52.
- Vaccine stocks still showing gains: BNTX, CVAC, MRNA, NVAX; race still on. Astra Zeneca/Oxford data shows mixed results..
- Diagnostics lagging: CODX, HOLX, OSUR, QDEL.
- Large cap leaders: ABBV, ALXN, VRTX.
- Energy soaring with XLE up 7%.
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Large Cap Biopharma Performance -As of Q3 Earnings 2020
Quick Take: ETFs Were the Best Plays
Many of these stocks have lagged or declined since January 2018 and in 2020 saw highs in mid-summer. Regeneron has outperformed in 2020 and has bounced 242 points off its 2018 lows because of its deep R&D capabilities. Regeneron (REGN) ran up in 2020 because of its antibody cocktail to treat COVID-19 and recently received emergency approval. We recently picked Merck (MRK) at $75 and Abbvie (ABBV) as a new buy in the high 80s range, now at $100.
We will provide new trading ideas from this large cap biopharma group next week. Or just buy the IBB.
Surging coronavirus infections has even nicked the healthcare sector down 3% for the week. The breakthrough in COVID vaccines has pivoted trades toward small caps, materials and energy so we’ll see if this trend continues through next week. Small cap speculation in many biotechs and life science stocks is strong.
- The best portfolio bet in 2020 for non-traders would have been the IBB up 15% ytd or even the Fidelity Biotechnology Fund (FBIOX) up 25%.
- For aggressive portfolios and as we have commented on many times the XBI up 32% YTD is the best trade but volatile on down NASDAQ days.
- Laggards in 2020 are Biogen (BIIB) and Gilead Sciences (GILD) for good reasons.
- BristolMyers Squibb (BMY) is still assimilating the Celgene acquisition so another laggard.
- AstraZeneca (AZN) is a favorite from analysts for EPS growth in 2021 and also has a COVID vaccine candidate.
- And of course the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) ETF up 36% leads all popular ETFs in 2020
Disclosure: long ABBV, AZN, BMY, FBIOX, GILD, MRK, XBI
| COMPANY | Ticker | Price | 2017 | Price | Price | MktCap |
% Perform
|
|||||
| 1/15/18 | Rev$B | 11/21/20 | 11/1/19 | 2020 | YTD | FWD | Analyst | % | ||||
| 2018 | $ | $B | P/S | PE | Recom | Div | ||||||
| Abbvie | ABBV | 100.340 | 27.27 | 100.84 | 81.75 | 176 | 13.89 | 4.33 | 8.28 | 2 | 5.16 | |
| Alexion | ALXN | 122.710 | 3.47 | 121.38 | 109.38 | 26.7 | 12.23 | 4.56 | 9.38 | 2.2 | ||
| Amgen | AMGN | 185.040 | 23 | 223.17 | 217.95 | 130.8 | -7.43 | 5.23 | 13.12 | 2.4 | 2.87 | |
| AstraZeneca | AZN | 55.3 | 46.88 | 141.5 | 10.91 | 5.47 | 21.9 | 1.6 | 2.53 | |||
| Biogen | BIIB | 335.950 | 11.84 | 244.15 | 299.2 | 37.55 | -17.72 | 2.63 | 9.6 | 2.7 | ||
| Bristol Myers | BMY | 62.810 | 19.92 | 61.61 | 57.16 | 140.3 | -4 | 3.56 | 8.26 | 1.9 | 2.9 | |
| Celgene* (BMY) | CELG | 106.000 | 12.5 | n/a | 108.53 | 77 | n/a | 4.69 | 8.7 | n/a | ||
| Gilead Sci | GILD | 79.020 | 27.48 | 60.11 | 64.66 | 76 | -7.49 | 3.28 | 9.03 | 2.5 | 4.53 | |
| GlaxoSmithK | GSK | 37.03 | 45 | 92.87 | (21,20) | 2.04 | 12.05 | 2 | 5.48 | |||
| Merck | MRK | 58.660 | 39.8 | 80.45 | 84.94 | 203.4 | -11.54 | 4.3 | 12.64 | 2 | 3.23 | |
| Regeneron | REGN | 366.960 | 5.52 | 517.74 | 310.48 | 54.9 | 38.15 | 6.66 | 14.22 | 2.1 | ||
| Vertex | VRTX | 158.000 | 2.3 | 266.5 | 215.21 | 55.12 | -1.71 | 9.2 | 18.74 | 2 | ||
| XBI | 126.04 | 83.66 | 32.52 | |||||||||
| IBB | 138.87 | 109.85 | 15.24 | 0.23 | ||||||||
| FBT | 158.1 | 132.92 | 6.31 | |||||||||
| FBIOX | 26.24 | 20.26 | 25.5 | |||||||||
| XLV | 108 | 94.87 | 6.81 | |||||||||
| XPH | 48.15 | 39.47 | 5.43 | |||||||||
| QQQ | 290.38 | 36.58 | ||||||||||