Mid-Cap Biotechs Lead the Market: Pre-ASCO Scoreboard…Updates 6/4/18

6/4/18…after close Update-2…IBB down 0.65%, XBI down 0.22%.  http://research-consulting.com/what-we-do/  Momentum Waning

Big Winners Today : BLUE, FMI, GHDX, IMMU, MRK

It would appear that biotech stocks need to be bought prior to ASCO as has been then trend in the past i.e sell before the news. However there will be some clear cut winners after the Meeting. Today among the hard hit stocks were 2017 high flierTesaro (TSRO) down another 9.83%, down 49% YTD on ovarian cancer data with their anti-PD-1 PARP inhibitor.

And other 2018 high flier Blueprint Medicines (BPMC) was down 9.24% as their data for RET fusions was perceived as inferior to LOXO Oncology (LOXO) with RET-fusion positive cancers in lung, thyroid and pancreatic.

Merck (MRK) up 2.41% continuing traction with Keytruda immuno-oncology drug. Genomic Health (GHDX) one of our former diagnostic portfolio picks soared 23% on data from their Oncotype Dx gets for targeting patients (personalized medicine) with early stage breast cancer who receive no benefit from chemotherapy.

6/4/18 …12:23P EDT watch Update-1… A Lot of Red Screen Among Mid-caps

We will offer updates on selective stocks during the week. Today two stocks made huge moves. Novacure (NVCR) was down over 7% probably on skimpy news for its Optune device with Abraxane for Phase 3 ovarian cancer data. Mixed results for Opdivo/NKTR-214 combo drug: Nektar (NKTR) is down 39% on “underwhelming” cancer trial data.  

Traders should consider taking profits on XBI at $96 at its triple follow site top way above its April low of $84. Looks like a bit of a sell-off in early trading. Momentum is way down including gene editing stocks. Our top mid cap picks BLUE and FMI are holding top nicely.

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Mid-Cap Biotechs Are Strong in Run-Up to ASCO Meeting

Biotech stocks were strong last week decoupling from the weak healthcare sector performance that has persisted in 2018. Investors are expecting positive clinical data from many companies for treatment of cancer including breakthrough technologies from gene editing. This rally has been ignited despite threats from the Trump administration on drug pricing reform. Stocks are likely to rally with positive news but caution is in order because in the past there have been sell-offs post-ASCO. We wrote about a mid-cap biotech ASCO rally in early May. Stay tuned for daily updates.

See mid-cap 2018 scoreboard below with from our universe.

  • Top Five Winners over past week: FMI, NKTR, LOXO, NKTR, SGEN, AGIO. FMI is our top mid-cap pick.
  • Top Five Winners YTD: CRSP, LOXO, AGIO, NKTR, SRPT.
  • IBB lags in 2018 due to overweighting in large cap laggard stocks: AMGN, BIIB, CELG, GILD.
  • The FBT was up 3% last week with a diverse mix of mid and large cap holdings.
  • XBI hits $96.65 near triple top for 2018. XBI re-balances holdings frequently to add “hot stocks” like AGIO LOXO, SRPT etc. XBI is our top ETF pick for more passive investors.

Company Ticker Price $ Revs $B MktCap %Perf Analyst
5 Day %
6/1/18 $B YTD 2018 Rating*
Acadia Pharma ACAD 18.34 0.1249 2.28 -39 2 5
Agio Pharma AGIO 96.86 0.043 5.58 69.4 2 9.3
Alnylam ALNY 102.81 0.899 10.1 -20.8 2.2 0.76
Anaptys Bio ANAB 76.6 0.01 1.8 -24 1.7 -1.66
ArenaPharma ARNA 48.08 0.021 2.36 41.5 1.8 4.57
Array Biopharma ARRY 16.99 0.139 3.58 32.7 1.6 8.63
AveXis AVXS 217 0 8 96.2 2.8
acquired
BlueBird Bio BLUE 182.4 0.034 9.14 2.41 2.2 0.38
Blueprint Med BPMC 84.48 0.021 3.7 12 1.5 1.36
Clovis Oncology CLVS 47.7 0.055 2.5 -29.8 2 -3.09
CRISPR Ther CRSP 67.13 0.062 3.17 185.9 2.1 -4.06
Exelixis EXEL 20.58 0.452 6.11 -32.3 1.9 0.39
Incyte INCY 67.83 1.54 14.4 -28.3 2.2 1.86
Ionis IONS 46.61 0.507 5.85 -7.34 2.8 3.05
Amicus Ther FOLD 16.5 0.0369 3.11 14.7 1.7 3.64
Foundation Medicine FMI 102.9 0.153 3.81 50.9 2.5 14.3
GW Pharma GWPH 162.2 0.016 4.7 22.9 2.3 0.68
Ligand Pharma LGND 197 0.141 4.2 43.9 2.2 3.82
Loxo Oncology LOXO 186.69 0.02 5.6 121.8 1.3 10.6
Neurocrine Bio NBIX 98.49 0.161 8.85 26.9 1.6 4.5
Nektar Therapeutics NKTR 90.35 0.308 15.49 51.29 1.7 12.12
NovoCure NVCR 31.95 0.177 2.65 58.2 1.6 5.1
Seattle Genetics SGEN 61.62 0.513 9.75 15.1 2.3 10
Serepta SRPT 95.85 0.154 6.3 72.3 1.8 4.64
Tesaro TSRO 46.89 0.223 2.57 -43.42 2 -9.43
*yahoo
First Trust Arca FBT 142.15 14.11 3.01
iSharesBIO IBB 109.84 2.88 2.07
NASDAQ-100 QQQ 172.74 10.9 1.77
SPDR S&P XBI 96.65 13.88 4
HC SPDR XLV 83.36 0.82 0.43
Data from FinViz
and Yahoo

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