2/28/18 Update

Tape looks sluggish at major resistance. Downgrade to HOLD on Celgene (CELG). Bad regulatory news on relapsing multiple sclerosis drug ozanimod.

2/2/18 Update After Sell-Off

  • Cautious on Amgen (AMGN) after earnings release but looks better than the IBB if you are bullish on biotech.
  • XBI remains a top ETF pick but given weak momentum and volatility is currently more of a trade not a buy at these levels of $93.
  • Abbvie (ABBV) recovery today to $117 level is encouraging after a 10 pt drop.
  • A summary of large cap valuations and guidance will be issued after all earnings released.


Rayno Biopharma Portfolio: 2017 Was A Good Year But Lagging in Q4

2017 was a volatile year for biopharma stocks but overall performance was good for those holding ETFs or selected Rayno picks for the period. It was a more difficult year for traders particularly in small caps. Many stocks peaked in early October when concerns about drug pricing hit the news cycle. Catalysts did not help later in the year as expected such as M&A deal news and breakthrough clinical milestones. Also global markets stormed ahead in Q4 2017 offering investors many alternatives to healthcare.

  • Top 2017 winners in the Portfolio were speculative stocks: Foundation Medicine (FMI), a molecular information platform for oncology  up 285% and bluebird bio (BLUE), an emerging gene therapy and CAR-T developer up 188%.
  • The best performing large cap in our portfolio was Abbvie (ABBV) up 41.5%.
  • Our top ETF pick was the SPDR S&P biotech XBI up 43%.
  • Without in-depth analysis it looks like the Fidelity Select Biotechnology Fund (FBIOX) beat the the large cap IBB by 6% points.Use it for large cap exposure.
  • Gilead Sciences (GILD) was flat YTD but the Kite Pharma acquisition should provide long term growth.
  • We added Celgene (CELG), a leading cancer and inflammatory disease growth Company, whose stock was crushed on revised 2018 guidance. The stock hit $109 in December off its lows near $100 before a Bernstein downgrade. Investors holding the stock should wait to see an update at the J.P.Morgan Healthcare Conference before taking action.

Sign up now for J.P.Morgan Healthcare Meeting Updates in early January.



Company Ticker Date Price Price Perf 12/30 Perf %
Started 4/25 %Tot P YTD
Abbvie ABBV 2/3/16 56.5 65.45 71 96.71 41.48
Amgen AMGN 9/12/16 172 165 1 173.9 18.9
Biogen BIIB 2/13/17 275 286.5 16 318.57 12.34
bluebird bio BLUE 2/3/16 43.75 88.1 406 178.1 188
Bristol Myers BMY 2/16/16 61 54.2 0 61.28 4.86
Foundation Med FMI 7/5/16 20.4 34 166 54.35 285.3
Gilead Sci GILD 2/3/16 85.8 67.3 -16.5 71.64 0
Roche ADR RHHBY 4/4/16 30.36 32.4 3.9 31.58 2.4
Celgene CELG 11/20/17 102 2.3 104.36 -9.8  HOLD
IBB split 3:1 6/29/16 250 296 18.4 106.77 20.7 see FBIOX
XBI 1/31/17 64 70.7 32.6 84.87 43.4 trade
QQQ (reference) n/a 135.13 n/a 155.76 29.8
219.4 26

IBB iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF daily Stock Chart

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