Rayno Biopharma Portfolio 2018 YTD: Performance Summary

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We added small positions at $32 on August 21 and more on 9/7 at $35+.

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Rayno Biopharma Performance 2018: YTD 8/4

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FBT Is the Best All Around Life Science Play up 19% YTD

We have provided herein a summary of biopharma portfolio positions for our readers. The Rayno portfolio picks are designed for long-term performance and does not include short-term high volatility trades. The best way to make money in biotechnology is to hold the best companies over the long-term.  We do not give sell signals except through more volatile “risk off” periods where ETFs can be used to re-balance portfolios. Our top ETF trading pick has been the XBI, although over the past quarter the FBT has proven to be less volatile and outperformed because of more diversified holdings in tools and healthcare services.

  • Our best pick was Foundation Medicine (FMI) up 118% YTD and almost 7x since inception. The Company is being acquired in a tender offer by Roche Holding AG (RHHBY for $2.4B. Foundation Medicine is a leader in precision medicine for oncology.
  • Our worse pick was Celgene (CELG) down 15% YTD; added 11/20/17 at $102.
  • bluebird bio(BLUE) is down over 17% YTD but is still a 3.4X return since added on 2/3/16.
  • Q2 of 2018 showed strong momentum in mid and small caps and we did not add any of the best performers such as LOXO, NBIX and SRPT. Momentum has eased since mid-July.
  • July 2018 showed a rotation into large cap healthcare with the XLV up 6.2% and many biopharma stocks including the large cap IBB were up ~15% over 3 mos: AMGN BIIB MRK REGN VRTX.

Several analysts have commented on some of the reasons for the recent rotation into large cap drug and biotech stocks among them: perception of value and defensive nature of drug stocks, diversification from overweighted  portfolios in technology and FANG stocks, growth plus value with dividends. The rally could have been ignited by various macro headlines and a slowly building assumption that policy changes in the Administration for control of drug prices with Medicare and Medicaid is not likely. Moreover some drug company executives have responded to Trump’s call to hold the line on drug price increases.

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2017 2018
Company Ticker Date Price Price Perf% 8/3 Perf %
Started 12/31 12/31 P YTD*
Abbvie ABBV 2/3/16 56.5 96.71 41.48 96.53 -1.91
Amgen AMGN 9/12/16 172 173.9 18.9 198 11.86
Biogen BIIB 2/13/17 275 318.57 12.34 344.21 3
bluebird bio BLUE 2/3/16 43.75 178.1 188 150 -17.54
Bristol Myers BMY 2/16/16 61 61.28 4.86 59.16 -3.5
Foundation Medicine FMI 7/5/16 20.4 54.35 285.3 137 118.85 acquired
Gilead Sci GILD 2/3/16 85.8 71.64 0 77.93 5.17
Roche ADR RHHBY 4/4/16 30.36 31.58 2.4 30.91 -2.68
Celgene CELG 11/20/17 102 104.4 -9.8 90.44 -14.81
FBT 127.44 149.15 17
IBB (split 3:1) 6/29/16 250 106.77 20.7 117.17 7.16
XBI 1/31/17 64 84.87 43.4 94.71 8.6 trade
QQQ (reference) n/a 155.76 29.8 180 13.6
FBIOX (reference)
219.4 26 231.79 3.19
*div not incl

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