Update-2 4/5/23…2:20p EDT..Healthcare and other defensive groups continue to run up as concerns grow about rising rates in a slowing economy.
- Biopharma +2% movers:AZN, GSK, LLY, MRK,PFE, RHHBY, VRTX.
- UNH up 3.48% to $510,XLV up 1.79% to $133.28.
- SMID lagging with XBI down 0.59% to 75+; CRSP IBB QDEL SUPN holding green.
- JNJ up 3.97% despite $8.9B offer to settle cancer lawsuit tied to talc claims.
Update- 4/3/23 Reversal to the upside for Healthcare and Biopharma Stocks: UNH, MRK,LLY, etc. PFE off bottom .Energy stocks rallying as well up ~~5%: XLE,CVX XOM etc.
Large Cap Biopharmas Lagged in Q1 Except : REGN up 13.895 and VRTX up 9.1%.
- Winners Q1: REGN,VRTX, AZN:Laggards Q1:PFE, AMGN, LLY.
- Winners 12 mos: GILD 39.56%, BIIB 32%, MRK 29.66%, LLY 29.3%, VRTX 26%.
- Small-caps equal weight XBI down 8.18%, Healthcare XLV down 4.7%, iBB biotech large cap weighted down 1.62%.
It was a nice recovery in a choppy market for Q1 surprising many investors because of fears from the SVB banking collapse that may spread to regional banks. The S&P 500 Financial sector lost 6.05% for Q1 followed by losses in Energy down 5.57% and Healthcare down 4.72%. NASDAQ, Infotech and the QQQ led the charge up over 20% reversing trends from 2022. Even the S&P was up 7% and smaller caps began to recover.
It was very difficult to make money in Q1 trading healthcare or biotech ETFs because of the sharp rally in other sectors. Nonetheless there were two big winners Regeneron and Vertex as well as some of our favorite large caps like GILD, MRK that have done well over 12 months. So our recommendation has been to overweight large cap biopharmas with a basket of stocks because the leadership can change. But most provide dividends and robust product pipelines that can provide growth. For now our picks are strong holds and PFE is a contrarian buy for value and dealmaking.
Most favored by analysts are: AZN, LLY, MRK and REGN. Try using Seeking Alpha for tracking your positions as it will help you with news and technicals.
***(Late news-OPEC production cuts boost crude prices and energy stocks)
Disclosure Long ABBV, BMY, GILD, LLY, MRK, PFE REGN and VRTX.
| Company | Ticker | Price | Price | Price | MktCap | % Perf | |||||||
| 1/15/18 | 3/31/23 | 11/1/19 | 2022 | 1 yr | FWD | Analyst | % | 52 week H | YTD % | ||||
| $B | P/S | PE | Recom | Div | |||||||||
| Abbvie | ABBV | 100.000 | 159.37 | 81.75 | 278.6 | (1.69) | 4 | 14.34 | 2.4 | 3.71 | 169.39 | -1.39 | |
| Alexion*(ALXN) | ALXN | 123.000 | 182.5 | 109.38 | 40.33 | n/a | 4.56 | 9.38 | 2.2 |
*acquired by AZN
|
|||
| Amgen | AMGN | 185.000 | 241.75 | 221 | 129 | – | 4.9 | 12.77 | 2.7 | 3.52 | 283.36 | -7.95 | |
| AstraZeneca* | AZN | 35.000 | 69.41 | 40.34 | 214.3 | 4.63 | 4.83 | 16.1 | 1.9 | 3.51 | 71.94 | 2.37 | |
| Biogen | BIIB | 336.000 | 278.31 | 299.2 | 143.45 | 32 | 3.11 | 8.44 | 2.2 | – | 307 | 0.4 | |
| Bristol Myers* | BMY | 63.000 | 69.31 | 57.16 | 152 | -5.09 | 3.29 | 8.8 | 2.3 | 3.29 | 81.44 | -3.67 | |
| Celgene* (BMY) | CELG | 106.000 | n/a | 108.53 | 77 | n/a | 4.69 | 8.7 | n/a |
*acquired by BMY
|
|||
| Gilead Sci | GILD | 79.000 | 82.97 | 61.69 | 101.7 | 39.56 | 3.73 | 11.49 | 2.6 | 3.62 | 89.75 | -3.35 | |
| GlaxoSmithK* | GSK | 38.000 | 35.58 | 45 | 71.58 | -18.32 | 1.97 | 9.05 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 39.74 | 1.25 | Haleon spinout |
| Eli Lilly | LLY | 85.000 | 343.42 | 113 | 325 | 19.92 | 11.38 | 29.3 | 2.1 | 1.32 | 384 | -6.13 | |
| Merck | MRK | 59.000 | 106.39 | 78 | 268.9 | 29.66 | 4.54 | 12.5 | 2 | 2.74 | 115.49 | -4.11 | |
| Pfizer | PFE | 40.8 | 227.9 | -21.19 | 2.27 | 10.83 | 2.5 | 4.02 | 54.93 | -20.37 | |||
| Regeneron | REGN | 367.000 | 821.67 | 310.48 | 88.72 | 17.65 | 7.29 | 18.23 | 2.1 | – | 835 H | 13.89 | |
| Vertex | VRTX | 158.000 | 315.07 | 196 | 89.25 | 26.08 | 20.73 | 20.34 | 2.2 | – | 325 | 9.1 | |
| 3/31 | 11/19 | %YTD | 1 yr | 2022 high | |||||||||
| XBI | 76.21 | 93 | -8.18 | -15.21 | 97.19 | ||||||||
| IBB | 129.16 | 119.65 | (1.62) | -0.87 | 138.74 | ||||||||
| FBIOX | 15.63 | 20.26 | -3.99 | -3.4 | 17.31 | ||||||||
| PRHSX | 87.75 | 79 | -2.3 | -7.77 | 97.86 | ||||||||
| XLV | 129.46 | 121.11 | -4.7 | -5.5 | 143.42 | ||||||||
| XPH | 41.01 | 39.47 | 0.15 | -9.41 | 46.61 | ||||||||
| UNH | 472.59 | 252 | -10.86 | -7.33 | 558 | ||||||||
| QQQ | 320.93 | 201.23 | 20.52 | -11.48 | 369.31 | ||||||||