Biomarker MicroCap Challenge: BGMD,RGDX,VRML Update 8/21

http://lakesidepizzeriawi.com/menu-card/mama-zappas-margarita/ Vermillion (VRML) stock outperforming follow site BG Medicine (BGMD) YTD and Past Month

Response Genetics thrown into the mix

We have dropped the term “Face-Off” due to negative connotations of the “Face-” part. Here is an update since our last post on go to link 7/6/12 post Q2 earnings. We have also added Response Genetics (RGDX $0.91) as it is a microcap in a similar space although it is a much more mature Company in terms of revenues. This challenge is in effect until year-end 2012. RGDX stock has been hit hard over 3 months due to lack of revenue growth and selling by institutional shareholders although they still own 54.6% of the Company. A new institution Bridger Management LLC now owns 3M shares of RGDX.

Withe the S&P up 13% YTD (over the past month the Russell 200 has rallied 3.27%) there was no good reason to speculate in microcap stocks and this remains the case. However Q4 has always been the “sweet spot” of small cap investing so we expect rallies in selected microcaps with good news.

————–7/6/12 post with new financial data

Vermillion Stock Outperforms BG Medicine Since April 3

On 4/3/12 we posted the biomarker challenge featuring two emerging public companies that have approved diagnostic products. In a few weeks we will have Q2 financial data on these two companies BG Medicine (BGMD) and Vermillion (VRML).  Here is a comparison over 90 days with prices as of 7/6/12.

  • VRML stock is up 7% while BGMD stock is down 7.7%.
  • No significant changes were made in product revenue forecasts for either Company.
  • VRML shows more active trading with an average of 367k per day compared to 75k for BGMD,but VRML shows greater volatility.
  • VRML on June 15 presented a Poster on a new Peripheral Artery Disease biomarker currently in development.
  • BGMD on June 18 announced the availability of their galectin-3 diagnostic test through Atherotec Diagnostic Lab.

We will provide additional information on these and other diagnostic companies as we cover the AACC Meeting in Los Angeles on July 16. We will look for personalized medicine trends that could impact diagnostic companies such as Qiagen (QGEN), Response Genetics (RGDX), Sequenom  (SQNM) as well as major genomic tools companies like Life Technologies (LIFE) and Illumina (ILMN).

————

Financials updated 8/20/12

Company BGMedicine Vermillion  RespGenet
BGMD VRML  RGDX
Price 4/3/12 $7 $2
 8/21/12

7/6/12

4.88

6.46

 1.87

2.14

$0.91 

1.20

Market Cap$M $139.40 $30.10
 8/20/12  129  $97.6  31.8  $28.15  $22.7
Cash Bal.$M 28 22
 Q2 22.8  18.3  $1.7M
Book Value 8/20 8.6 7.1  (6.1)
Retain.Earn$M -108.6 -316
 121  318.1  52.6
Rev Est 2012$M $3.2M $2.76M  $16.5
EPS Est 2012 ($1.25) ($0.94)  ($0.43)
 ($1.40)  ($0.77)
Lead Product Galectin-3 OVA1
Disease focus Cardiovascular Ovarian cancer  Cancer markers

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