Sierra SnowBlog-Grim Precip Outlook for West Coast Update 1/24/14 PDO

Update 12 N 1/23/14

Accuweather is sticking their umbrellas out calling for rain in San Francisco on Feb 4-but today downgraded that forecast.

Unisys gives us nothing for six days.Same for NOAA9mh.gif 720×729 pixels

Sheckter offers Hope for early Feb as well: Mammoth Lakes Weather brought to you by Howard Sheckter

Montana stormy period ahead. Bridger Bowl has had 168 in on snow.

 

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1/17 No change .  High pressure ridge dominates Pacific Coast.

Here is new site explaining PDO, supposed cause of 30 year cycles climate effects, the PDO.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

Hope from Howard by month end:

Mammoth Lakes Weather brought to you by Howard Sheckter

No Relief From California Drought

Are Water Shortages Imminent?

Blizzard in Midwest and East

The weathermen are getting annoying. They rave about the sunshine and sunny mild temperatures in SoCal with little reference to the continuing drought. Homeowners continue to suck precious water from the Owens River valley and the Colorado oblivious to the water shortages that are coming.

Mammoth Mountain  has a season total of 48 inches snow compared to 225 in last season through December.Looking back to worst seasons ever at Mammoth 2011-12 was bad with 52 in through December and 263 in for the total season. Going back further driest ski season were: 2006-07 222 in,  1989-90 214 in, 1986-87  196 in, 1976-77  94 in. Those last two seasons had virtually no snow through December.

Howard Sheckter reports that 2013 in California is the driest on record in several areas-San Francisco has had only 2 inches of rain- with no relief in sight. Downtown LA has had only 1 inch of rain season to date and 3.44 in for all of 2013. NOAA forecasts show the same pattern over the next 6 days with a high pressure ridge blocking Pacific moisture.The NOAA Climate Prediction Center shows a continuing pattern of below average precipitation for the Southwest and above average for the Northern tier such as Montana, the Midwest down through Texas and the East Coast.

Current ENSO conditions are neutral meaning neither El Nino nor La Nina as was the case last season. The US monthly drought outlook is persistent for the West Coast through January. The Unisys Weather ECMWF Model gives the picture of blocking high pressure for the next 6 days.Note also the low pressure over the Great Lakes bringing bitter cold to the Upper Midwest and East Coast.

We will provide an update with any changes in outlook.

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1/3/13:  As the monster blizzard hits the East Coast  look for the polar vortex over Canada to move East.  This model potentially allows the high pressure ridge in the Pacific to weaken bringing warmer weather in the East and Midwest and a little precip in the West. No big changes for long term drought in West.

 

 

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