Caution-Follow Technicals-Potential for Macro Risk Off
The Life Science sector is about 2% off highs of February 1 and has formed a double top from October 5 highs. In recent posts we urged caution as some MO stocks had blow-off tops (ALXN,MDVN, REGN) and the IBB and XBI were unable to reach new highs with both charts looking toppy in Q1. We do not expect new highs for the sector until Q2 unless the NASDAQ or QQQ ($66.57) gather momentum.
- Look for a stable bottoming in ALXN,REGN and SGEN.
- AMGN,BIIB and GILD are very stable behaving more like blue chips.
- Albany Molecular (AMRI) and Pharmacyclics (PCYC) are the best performers YTD up 50%+.
- Three major ETFs are still up about 5% YTD: FBT,IBB and XBI
- The Five Star Fidelity Biotechnology Fund (FBIOX $117.68) is still up 7% YTD.
- No portfolio changes have been made except some profit taking.
- Stock sponsorship is most important as major funds will still buy their favorite stocks.
- Small and mid cap biotech stocks show good volume with many new highs.
| 2013 | Price | Original | P | Price | %Ret | Price | Price | % Ret | Price | ||
| Summary | Jy’10 | Recomm | Dec’10 | 2010 | Apr’11 | Dec’12 | YTD | Feb’26 | |||
| 2012 | |||||||||||
| Alexion | ALXN | 50.45 | 2/2/09 | 35 | 80.6 | 130 | 100.8 | 95.4 | 33.4 | 85.5(split) | |
| Albany Mol | AMRI | 2/10/11 | 4.68 | added | 4.32 | 5.3 | 81.2 | 7.94 | |||
| Astex | ASTX | 12/27/11 | 1.63 | 2.7 | 43.4 | 3.08 | |||||
| Amgen | AMGN | 51.7 | 2/2/09 | 55 | 54.9 | 0 | 54 | 87.4 | 36.1 | 89.5 | |
| Biogen | BIIB | 49.42 | 2/2/09 | 48.5 | 67.1 | 37 | 73.25 | 149 | 35.5 | 161.62 | |
| Cephalon | CEPH | 55.95 | 2/2/09 | 76.5 | 61.7 | -19 | 76.92 | 80.18 | 30 | acquired | |
| Cubist | CBST | 20.7 | 2/2/09 | 21.5 | 21.4 | -3 | 28.35 | 42.4 | 7 | 40.77 | |
| Exelixis | EXEL | trade | 9/2/10 | 3.3 | 8.21 | 148 | 11.12 | 4.58 | -3.2 | 4.43 | |
| First Trust | FBT | 30.4 | 4/15/10 | 37.5 | 39.1 | 3 | 41.3 | 46 | 41 | 49 | |
| Gilead | GILD | 34.9 | 2/2/09 | 51 | 36.2 | -29 | 42.81 | 72.7 | 77.5 | 41.96(split) | |
| iShares ETF | IBB | 76.6 | 2/2/09 | 70.5 | 93.4 | 32 | 101.1 | 137.8 | 32 | 143.95 | |
| SPDR Bio | XBI | 86.38 | 30 | 91.67 | |||||||
| Micromet | MITI | 6.28 | 2/2/09 | 4 | 8.12 | 103 | 5.46 | 10.91 | 272 | acquired | |
| ImmunoGen | IMGN | 12/22/11 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 14.7 | |||||
| Optimer | OPTR | 2/18/11 | 11.8 | added | 13.8 | 9.2 | -25 | 10.77 | |||
| Regeneron | REGN | 21.6 | 2/2/09 | 17.5 | 32.8 | 82 | 45.43 | 173 | 212 | 160 | |
| Seattle Gen. | SGEN | 11.85 | 2/2/09 | 9.5 | 15 | 57 | 15.72 | 23.3 | 39.4 | 27 | |
| ViroPharma | VPHM | 10.88 | 2/2/09 | 12 | 17.3 | 44 | 20.05 | 22.9 | -16 | 24.7 | |
| Paired Trade | |||||||||||
| Pharmacycl | PCYC | long | 6/8/12 | 38.2 | 60 | 51 | 88.78 | ||||
| Medivation | MDVN | short | 6/8/12 | 86.8 | 50 | 7 | 47.85(split) | ||||