10/28/24….Movers from a new hot disease areas of kidney disease. Vera Therapeutics soars 15% on Phase 2b results for kidney drug. VERA is up 207% YTD.
- EyePointPharmaceuticals (EYPT) up 27% on interim data for Diabetic Macular Edema.
10/27/24…Update-2 Healthcare stocks are down 3% over the past week but we can show you winners tomorrow from our SMID trading list.Track the following mid-caps as all have potential for more gains ahead: ABOS, CRNX, CPRX, CRMD, DNLI, EXEL,ILMN, RZLT, VCYT. The XBI has been running flat at $97 but we expect it to break through $100 again on the next small cap rally.
- 10 year at 4.232%, Oil at $68.52, GOLD at 2746, S&P500 at 5808.
- BIG week for large cap biopharma earnings and economc reports incl jobs data.
XLV Healthcare ETF chart.
10/24/24 after the close …added to ABBV under $190; good volume this month in IBB and XBI but little price volatility ? Have a look at FBIOX up 19.8% YTD and JNGLX up 14.89% YTD large cap weighted FUNDS since some stocks are down 5% or more over one month.
Intellia (NTLA) was down 20% today despite positive results from a Phase 2 study for IN VIVO gene editing CRSPR treatment for Hereditary AngioEdema (HAE). CRSPR Therapeutics stock was up 4.24% today but is down 23.4% YTD.
10/24/24….1130 a EDT,,Update-1 It’s been a tough week for traders with a lot of whipsaw potential as the chop continues. Even the large cap biopharma stocks are showing volatility with favorites like MRK and REGN losing ground. Even LLY is off about 3% over 5 days. We added a little Roche ADR (RHHBY) just under $40 yesterday up over 11% YTD and paying a 3.36% Dividend. One of our top picks is Abbvie( ABBV) still up over 20% YTD despite recent weakness. Earnings for most of these large caps are coming within 10 working days so we”ll review results at that time. GILD and VRTX remain strong holds with high expectations for the Vertex Phase 3 pain drug . The XBI rally fizzled around $100 but many small cap speculative biotechs soared this week amidst crazy volatility: AIFF, BIVI, DRUG, HUMA and WVE.
LONG: ABBV, BIVI, GILD, HUMA, MRK, REGN, RHHBY and VRTX.
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Six Week Rally on Pause as Treasury Rates Rise with 10 Year Yield at 4.17.
- SMID Biotechs in a broad decline to a “red screen day”, Russell 2000 off 1.57%, IJR off 1.76%.
- XLV down 1.18 %, IBB down 1.3%, XBI down 1.64%.CRMD up 1.73% to $11.20. Wild volatility in more speculative biotech names. Will be reviewed over the weekend.
- Many large caps have already corrected off highs but MRK and REGN were down over 2% today.
A few take-aways from early earnings results but today it’s all about treasury yields rising. Mega-cap tech stocks held up-AAPL, AMD, GOOG,NVDA-but rate sensitive even dividend stocks lost ground. Financials (XLF) and Real Estate (XLRE) were losers. There has been a shift in healthcare stock performance by sub-sector which should be confirmed as we move through the Q3 earnings cycle, with Danaher and Thermo Fisher on deck. Next week is a big week for large healthcare and biopharma companies. So it looks like a risk off situation but earnings have been good. so we’ll need several days to sort it out.
Performance for last week and YTD 10/20:
- The MEDtech Sector US Medical Device (IHI) up 2.5% MTD and 11.75% YTD looks like an uptrend supported by financial results from Abbott and Intuitive Surgical. Medical procedures may be finally recovering from the United Health earnings showing costs are up. BSX earnings coming up this week.
- Large cap biopharmaceuticals have been weaker over the past month: Abbvie, Merck, Regeneron but some laggard stocks outperformed : BMY,GILD. We need to review upcoming earnings with more scrutiny in light of recent weakness bt ABBV, MRK and VRTX are finding a buying range
- Mutual Funds we follow have outperformed ETFs as stock picking is more important. THE XLV was hit by being overweight UNH and
- Although it does not show up in the XBI small cap BIOTECHs show good momentum and selected stocks are expected to do well in Q4. Som of the winners among our LIfeScience trades are: ADPT, CPRX, CRMD, CRNX, EXEL, GERN, NTRA and VCYT.
- Recent buys are Becton Dickinson (BDX), llumina (ILMN) and Pfizer (PFE). We’ll have to wait until rnext week for earnings from ABBV,
Rayno Life Science
| Model | ||||||||||||||
| PORTFOLIO | * | |||||||||||||
| 2020 | 2020 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 5 yr % | |||||||
| Stock/ETF | Ticker | Price | Wgt | Price | Price | Price | Price | P | Tot Ret | |||||
| 10/25 | % | 12/31 | % Perf | 12/31/21 | 12/31/22 | 11/11 | 10/20 | %Perf | % | % | % | |||
| P | YTD | MTD | WTD | |||||||||||
| iShares NAZ Bio | IBB | 136 | 10 | 151.5 | 25.7 | 152.62 | 130.55 | 115.53 | 145.91 | 7.41 | 42.67 | -1.09 | 0.22 | |
| iShares Russell 2k | IWM | 163 | 10 | 196.4 | 18.3 | 222.45 | 174.36 | 175 | 225.65 | 12.43 | 47.86 | 2.83 | 1.98 | |
| Merck* | MRK | 80 | 10 | 81.77 | -10 | 76.64 | 115 | 101.39 | 108..70 | -0.29 | 34.3 | -8.38 | -0.94 | |
| United Health | UNH | 330 | 15 | 350.7 | 27.19 | 502 | 530.27 | 541.21 | 569.61 | 8.19 | 132.17 | -1.9 | -4.76 | |
| SPDR S&P Bio | XBI | 117 | 10 | 140.8 | 48 | 111.96 | 83 | 66.95 | 99.83 | 11.8 | 26.93 | -0.97 | 1.17 | |
| Healthcare SPDR | XLV | 108 | 25 | 113.4 | 14.71 | 140.89 | 135.88 | 126.27 | 153.13 | 12.28 | 66.88 | -1.44 | -0.49 | |
| T.Rowe Hlth Sci | PRHSX | n/a | 5 | 99.65 | n/a | 104 | 89 | 83.41 | 100.69 | 14.55 | 34.79 | -0.46 | – | |
| iShares U.S MedT | IHI | 50 | 10 | 54.83 | 65.85 | 52.57 | 45.75 | 60.31 | 11.75 | 47.19 | 2.52 | 2.9 | ||
| MedTech* | ABT | 5 | 123.5 | 127.46 | 109.83 | 94 | 119.39 | 8.47 | 44.21 | 3.93 | 2.82 | |||
| Diversfied MED | JNJ | new | 165.12 | 5.35 | 29.3 | -0.62 | 2.27 | |||||||
| Tracking Comp | ||||||||||||||
| ARK Genomic | ARKG | 93.26 | 61.24 | 28.23 | 24.1 | 24.78 | -24.47 | -12.81 | -5.53 | -0.04 | ||||
| Direx3X Bull | LABU | 7.66 | 2.74 | 131.1 | 7.49 | -80.41 | -4.63 | 3.32 | ||||||
| FIDO Biotech | FBIOX | ** | 25.18 | 19.35 | 16.04 | 14.39 | 21.89 | 22.77 | 10.08 | 1.96 | – | |||
| FiDO MEDtech | FSMEX | 76.15 | 83.18 | 60.04 | 51.64 | 68.71 | 10.89 | 24.38 | 1.94 | – | ||||
| JanusHendLifeSc | JNGLX | 81.11 | 17.33 | 45.72 | -0.09 | – | ||||||||
| DOW | DIA | 310 | 363.32 | 331.34 | 343 | 432.64 | 14.8 | 61.65 | 3.95 | 0.91 | ||||
| S&P 500 | SPY | 379 | 475 | 382.41 | 440 | 584.89 | 22.99 | 96.19 | 4.13 | 0.86 | ||||
| NASDAQ-100 | QQQ | 315 | 397.85 | 266.33 | 378.39 | 494.97 | 20.74 | 157.95 | 4.89 | 0.22 | ||||
| Technology SPDR | XLK | 128.93 | 161.97 | 124.44 | 179.52 | 230.91 | 19.97 | 185.39 | 6.33 | 0.04 | ||||
| Top Biopharmas | * | e | 2022 | 11/11 | 10/20/24 | %YTD | 5 yr % total | 1 mo. | week | |||||
| Abbvie | ABBV | * | 161.64 | 138.59 | 188.86 | 21.87 | 147 | -2.11 | -2.74 | |||||
| Amgen | AMGN | 321.66 | 11.68 | 58.67 | -3.38 | -2.04 | ||||||||
| Astra Zeneca | AZN | * | 68 | 63.17 | 78.26 | 16.2 | 78.39 | -0.41 | 1.18 | |||||
| Bristol Myers Sq | BMY | * | 71.05 | 50.61 | 53.22 | 3.72 | 0.36 | 7 | 1.95 | |||||
| Gilead Sci | GILD | * | 85.39 | 75.92 | 86.72 | 7.05 | 8.85 | 3.37 | -0.73 | |||||
| Eli Lilly | LLY | 447.71 | 597.71 | 917.97 | 57.48 | 744.9 | 1.44 | -1.51 | ||||||
| Merck | MRK | 110.95 | 101.39 | 108.7 | -0.29 | 34.3 | -8.38 | -0.94 | ||||||
| Pfizer | PFE | 51.24 | 29.48 | 29.22 | 1.49 | -15.53 | -1.78 | 0.21 | ||||||
| Regeneron | REGN | 725 | 798.94 | 990.68 | 12.8 | 230 | -13 | (2.46) | ||||||
| Vertex | VRTX | 288.78 | 373.65 | 48 | 483 | 31.41 | 1.86 | 0.27 |