Update-2 1/3/25…10:55 EST. SMID biotechs bounce with all tracking ETFs up: ARKG, IBB, XBI. Select Winners over 12 mos. from our trading list: ADPT up 39%, CPRX up 25%, CRMD up 119%, EXEL up 41%, GH up 21%. NTRA up 165%, PTGX up 69%, SUPN up 32%, TWST up 35%, VCEL up 62%, VCYT up 50%. Keep in mind that the SMID Life Science group has been very weak over the past month with the XBI down 7% at $92.19.
Caution as these stocks can be volatile. JPMorgan Healthcare Conference begins on January 13.
With the XLV at 12 month lows among the large caps we still like: ABBV, ABT, BMY, PFE, VRTX and UNH.
========
Update-1 12/31..11:30a EST Green opening turns to chop. Biotech mixed with XBI and IBB flat to down. Most SMIDs trading down 5-10 % over one month. Need help from ETFs before trading longs.
Large caps green except LLY down 1%. UNH down 0.46%. Recap at end of day.
XLV at today’s low of $136.28 is low for the year. Keep in mind that healthcare is only about 11% of the S&P500 by weight, whereas InfoTech is 33%. And based on recent momentum the healthcare impact is lower.
==========
Healthcare Stocks Offer No Refuge from Broad Market Sell-Off
- Negative sentiment for U.S.healthcare system is fallout from UNH killing.
- Uncertainty on health policies from TRUMP 2.0
- Momentum Market is over with no new themes from life science.
Biotech shares continued their slide which began in early November and got no help from small caps which also sold off through December.We won’t try to explain why except to say that healthcare and drug stocks have been under fire lately beginning with some disappointing news from companies then the pall cast by United Health and lately a lack of momentum for small caps. You can layer on that a great year for MEGACAPs and technology stock leaving investors with little appetite for speculative biotech stocks.So for now let’s assume there is a dearth of buyers.
It’s been a great year for stocks and that is why the negative sentiment for healthcare seems worse.The healthcare sector performance is trailing in despite huge gains in 2024 for technology stocks.Look at the performance of SPDR sector ETFS where the Healthcare ETF finished at the lower end: Communication service were up about 25% YTD, technology and industrials were up over 35% and the S&P 500 was up over 25 %. Biotech investors are playing it safe holding large cap biopharmaceuticals paying dividends. Eventually innovation and M&A will return to biotech.And you do have an option to get intermediate bond yields of about 4.5%.
So beginning today I’ll be looking for some green that portends new trends in biotech and I expect new ideas to come out of the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference.
Healthcare and Biotech Scoreboard
| Model | ||||||||||||||
| PORTFOLIO | * | |||||||||||||
| 2020 | 2020 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 5 yr % | |||||||
| Stock/ETF | Ticker | Price | Wgt | Price | Price | Price | Price | P | ||||||
| 10/25 | % | 12/31 | % Perf | 12/31/21 | 12/31/22 | 11/11 | 12/29 | %Perf | % | % | H | |||
| P | YTD | MTD | 2024 | |||||||||||
| iShares NAZ Bio | IBB | 136 | 10 | 151.5 | 25.7 | 152.62 | 130.55 | 115.53 | 133.52 | -1.72 | 9.84 | -5.7 | 149.47 | |
| iShares Russell 2k | IWM | 163 | 10 | 196.4 | 18.3 | 222.45 | 174.36 | 175 | 222.39 | 10.8 | 34 | -7.7 | 242.4 | |
| Merck* | MRK | 80 | 10 | 81.77 | -10 | 76.64 | 115 | 101.39 | 99.7 | -8.55 | 14.19 | -3.32 | 132.96 | 3.25 |
| United Health | UNH | 330 | 15 | 350.7 | 27.19 | 502 | 530.27 | 541.21 | 509.99 | -3.13 | 72.31 | -16.17 | 625.25 | 1.65 |
| SPDR S&P Bio | XBI | 117 | 10 | 140.8 | 48 | 111.96 | 83 | 66.95 | 91.35 | 2.31 | -5 | -8.65 | 104.19 | |
| Healthcare SPDR | XLV | 108 | 25 | 113.4 | 14.71 | 140.89 | 135.88 | 126.27 | 138.95 | 1.88 | 34.98 | -5.44 | 157.24 | 1.54 |
| T.Rowe Price** | PRHSX | n/a | 5 | 99.65 | n/a | 104 | 89 | 83.41 | 80.46 | -8.44 | -1.7 | -16.66 | 102.48 | |
| iShares U.S MedT | IHI | 50 | 10 | 54.83 | 65.85 | 52.57 | 45.75 | 59.29 | 9.86 | 34.26 | -2.72 | 61.11 | ||
| MedTech* | ABT | 5 | 123.5 | 127.46 | 109.83 | 94 | 115 | -4.47 | 31.57 | -3.33 | 120.96 | |||
| Diversfied MED | JNJ | new | 145.09 | -7.46 | -0.48 | -6.66 | 167.38 | 3.42 | ||||||
| Tracking Comp | ||||||||||||||
| ARK Genomic | ARKG | 93.26 | 61.24 | 28.23 | 24.1 | 24.43 | -25.54 | 29 | -3.93 | 32.96 | ||||
| Direx3X Bull | LABU | 7.66 | 2.74 | 94.04 | -22.9 | -92 | -25.84 | 174.12 | ||||||
| FIDO Biotech | FBIOX | ** | 25.18 | 19.35 | 16.04 | 14.39 | 19.12 | 7.23 | -14.11 | -8.34 | 22.47 | |||
| FiDO MEDtech | FSMEX | 76.15 | 83.18 | 60.04 | 51.64 | 63.14 | 1.9 | 4.62 | -8.37 | 69.41 | ||||
| JanusHendLifeSc | JNGLX | 68.86 | -0.68 | 11.28 | -11.38 | 82.6 | ||||||||
| DOW | DIA | 310 | 363.32 | 331.34 | 343 | 430 | 14.1 | 50.18 | -3.96 | 450.94 | ||||
| S&P 500 | SPY | 379 | 475 | 382.41 | 440 | 595 | 25.18 | 84.29 | -0.64 | 608 | ||||
| NASDAQ-100 | QQQ | 315 | 397.85 | 266.33 | 378.39 | 522.5 | 27.59 | 144.6 | 3.4 | 539 | ||||
| Technology SPDR | XLK | 128.93 | 161.97 | 124.44 | 179.52 | 237.49 | 23.8 | 158.39 | 2.55 | 241.76 | ||||
| Top Biopharmas | * | 2022 | 11/23 | 11/30/24 | %YTD | 5 yr % total | 1 mo. | H | div | |||||
| Abbvie | ABBV | * | 161.64 | 138.59 | 178.01 | 14.87 | 99.56 | -2.77 | 203.9 | 3.69 | ||||
| Amgen | AMGN | 262.65 | -8.81 | 8.74 | -6.22 | 337 | 3.62 | |||||||
| Astra Zeneca | AZN | 68 | 63.17 | 66.26 | -1.62 | 31.36 | -1.4 | 87.62 | 2.24 | |||||
| Bristol Myers Sq | BMY | 71.05 | 50.61 | 57.68 | 12.41 | -10 | -2.68 | 59.94 | 4.3 | |||||
| Gilead Sci | GILD | * | 85.39 | 75.92 | 94.11 | 16.17 | 42.7 | 1.84 | 97.9 | 3.27 | ||||
| Eli Lilly | LLY | * | 447.71 | 597.71 | 783.17 | 34.35 | 495 | -0.64 | 960 | 0.77 | ||||
| Merck | MRK | * | 110.95 | 101.39 | 99.7 | -8.55 | 14.19 | -3.32 | 132.9 | 3.25 | ||||
| Pfizer | PFE | * | 51.24 | 29.48 | 26.62 | -7.54 | -28.64 | 3.06 | 31.39 | 6.46 | ||||
| Regeneron | REGN | * | 725 | 798 | 712.4 | -18.89 | 9.83 | -5.63 | 1202 | |||||
| Vertex | VRTX | * | 373.65 | 408.76 | 0.46 | 84.98 | -12 | 516.7 | ||||||