10/4 Update-1 Treasury Yields Drop Sparking Broad rally

Check SMID biotech stocks for year-end rally as tape looks much better. Taking heads warn “its another bear market rally.”

  • 5 Yr Treasury Yield drops 1.11% to 3.84%, 10 Yr to 3.617 %.
  • Broad rally brings all indices up with S&P 500 up 3.06% to 3790, NAZ up 3.34% to 11,176.
  • Leading sectors: ENERGY, FINANCIALS all up >3%, healthcare up 2.32%. materials up 3.675.Watch for transition to cyclicals.
  • IWM up 3.96% to $176, XBI up 3.78% to $83 portending strength in small caps.IBB up 2.86% to 122.65.
  • Large caps all green: GILD up 4.8%, RHHBY up 4.84% on news and dollar weakness?

10/5 1p EDT hot stocks Dept: Illumina (ILMN) up again today 4.85% to $215 handle following SVB and Evercore upgrades and after Company Forum on sequencing innovations.

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Large Cap Biopharmaceuticals: Pick some  Core Holdings for Your Portfolio

Now that some clarity is apparent for drug pricing legislation you should have a few large cap biopharmaceutical stocks in your portfolio. Large cap biotech provide value, growth and dividends with some protection from MACRO volatility. Biotech is a play on innovation in an era of molecular medicine.

Here are some general takeaways:

  1. Top winners YTD among stocks we hold in our portfolio are: VRTX LLY BMY MRK REGN all easily out -performing the IBB down over 23% YTD. Note upgrades LLY, MRK, REGN and VRTX.
  2. Biogen (BIIB) soared up 35% MTD and now up 10% YTD on Alzheimers drug clinical study results. partnered with Eisai.  Monoclonal antibody technology targeting amyloid in the brain.
  3. Biopharmas are off  their August highs because of a few downgrades: ABBV, AZN. BMY, and the general  market weakness in September.
  4. Valuations still look reasonable compared to other sectors. Price to Sales ratio genially under 5 with Forward  PEs in the teens. However we’ll need Q3 earnings and guidance to confirm these numbers.
  5. Gilead Sciences (GILD) is a laggard down 15% but has a FWD PE of 8.6 and a PE of 18.8. Dividend Yield is an attractive 4.73%
  6. The large cap biotech sector is slightly more volatile lately be sure to monitor the news and moving averages like the 200 day and 50 day. The gap between winners and losers is greater as well.
  7. LLY is one of the most expensive stocks in the group because of high expectations of potential blockbuster drugs like Mounjaro.
  8. The strong  tape of selective SMID stocks suggest a rally in Q4 triggered by M&A.

 

Company Ticker Price Price Price MktCap % Perf
COMPANY 1/15/18 9/30/22 11/1/19 2022 YTD FWD Analyst % 52 week high
$B P/S PE Recom Div
Abbvie ABBV 100.000 134.21 81.75 237.2 -0.88 4.14 11.28 2.2d 4.2 175.92
Alexion*(ALXN) ALXN 123.000 182.5 109.38 40.33 n/a 4.56 9.38 2.2
*acquired by AZN
Amgen AMGN 185.000 225.4 221 121 0.19 4.59 12.04 2.7 3.44 258.45
AstraZeneca* AZN 35.000 54.8 40.34 174.2 -5.85 3.96 15 1.7d 3.46 71.7
Biogen BIIB 336.000 267 299.2 39.7 11.29 3.73 17 2.4u 351.86
Bristol Myers* BMY 63.000 71 57.16 153 14 3.25 8.87 2.3d 3.04 80.59
Celgene* (BMY) CELG 106.000 n/a 108.53 77 n/a 4.69 8.7 n/a
*acquired by BMY
Gilead Sci GILD 79.000 66.33 61.69 78.44 -15 2.85 9.53 2.6 4.73 74
GlaxoSmithK* GSK 38.000 29.43 45 59.53 -33.3 1.62 8.45 2.2 6.3 *46.97
Eli Lilly LLY 85.000 323.35 113 306.7 17 10.55 34.22 2u 1.21 330
Merck MRK 59.000 86 78 220 12.37 3.85 11.6 2.2u 3.2 91.05
Regeneron REGN 367.000 689 310.48 74 9.08 5.21 16 2.3u 747.42
Vertex VRTX 158.000 289.5 196 75 31.85 8.98 18.7 2.1u 300
9/30/22 11/19 %YTD
MTD%
2022 high
XBI 79.32 83.66 -29.15 -5.23 111.96
IBB 116.96 109.85 -23.37 -3.17 152.62
FBIOX 15.49 20.26 -19.96 -2.15 19.67
XLV 121.11 221 -14 -2.93 143.42
XPH 40.16 39.47 -12.98 -3.35 46.15
UNH 505 252 0.58 -2.75 550
QQQ 267.26 201.23 -32.82 -10.7 397.85

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