Update-3 …10/20/25 ,,,BIOTECH SMID RALLY: Traders don’t care about froth or valuations as hot SMID biotechs play the laggards :ABOSup 5%, CRMD up 13%, PACB up 20%, SDGR up 15%, TXG up 9.8 % TWST up 15.65, etc.Plus our best picks continue their run: ADPT, PSNL, GH. A new buy today and where much of the core technology for genomics started Illumina (ILMN) up 4% at $99.39.
Update-2…10/19/25 This would be a good week to see which SMID biotech stocks can show gains and which are stocks are riding the improved sentiment in biotech. Here are stocks from our list that we currently have held for several months with good gains and are still strong holds:
- ADPT, COGT, CYRX,CRMD, GH, PSNL, ROIV, RYTM, SUPN, VCYT XNCR.
There are many other SMID biotechs that we may have traded and regretfully sold because of our overall overweighted holdings in large cap biotech and MEDTECh. :
- BBIO, CYTK, EXEL, LGND, NTRA, RZLT, RNA, TEM.
- For momentum in the sector watch XBI ; for overall sector strength in biotech watch IBB
Update-1…10/17/25 A bit of a sell-off today as the small caps were getting too frothy. Personalis (PSNL) was down about 11% on a volume of over 2M sh showing a lot of speculation, from news yesterday of their MRD test for lung cancer. Personalis stock is up 59% from a month ago. ADPT also a player in ultrsensitive Precision Oncology testing was down 5.62%. As I mentioned earlier we should be more cautious in the SMID biotechs after such a big run-up. many of our longer term picks held up well today: COGT, LGND, ROIV, RYTM, SUPN and the XBI held at about 107. Large caps showed gains: ABBV up 1.19%, GILD up 4.2%, REGN up 1.56% but LLY was down over 2% caught in the TRUMP vise squeeze on pricing despite all the new product innovation and new facility and R&D investment in the U.S.
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Biotech stocks Are Ramping Up Now
- SMID biotech stocks show strong investor interest and MOMENTUM by leading ETFs and FUNDs: ARKG up 37% YTD,24% MTD, XBI up 20.3% YTD, 16% MTD : FBIOX up 25% YTD.
- Most of the stocks on our trading list have made huge moves and are quite volatile.
- Innovation and growth from Precision Oncology, CAR-T, gene therapy, AI and sequencing will drive future gains.
This would be a good time to review your healthcare portfolio for weighting in small and mid-cap biotech stocks. The momentum is back and should continue through Q4. But first we have to get through the the Third Quarter earnings cycle. Many of our picks have already made significant moves up since this bull market began since ASCO in June with the theme of Precision Oncology which targets cancers and monitoring therapies through genomic markers. Earlier in 2025 we wrote about these companies that would provide leadership in this area and two of our picks are outstanding winners: Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) is up 185% YTD and 30.8% MTD now at the $17 level, and Personalis (PSNL) is up 47.6% YTD 43.8% MTD now at 8.50. So with this kind of ramp up in price without a recent Quarterly earnings update, it is difficult to project a growth rate. We are at the beginning of a new market trend with innovative genomic techniques in a large potential market. In the context of the current bull market for technology stocks based on AI you also have the investor sentiment and synergistic effect of creating momentum for these stocks.
Moreover biotechnology stocks have only recently come out of a bear market which began with the pandemic “bubble” peaks of 2021-2022 then eclipsed by the recent boom in AI which has driven semiconductor and large cap tech stocks to new highs. Some of the stocks on our trading list involve companies that employ AI in the core of the business model.But the emerging trend of growth in biotech stocks is not just new product innovation but favorable macroeconomic factors like a pick-up in M&A,and new product approvals from a vast pipeline in these wet funded companies.
Here is an example of a Company on our trading list Tempus AI (TEM) that embodies high sensitivity diagnostics with an AI database for biomarker driven oncology research.
Review our previous posts on how we derived our Trading List and MODEL which has been recently updated.10/5/25, We have made profitable trades on many other stocks we are not currently holding.
Be sure to read our large cap biotech update with top picks and long : ABBV, GILD,LLY, VRTX. And a NEW pick Regeneron (REGN)
LONG: ADPT, FBIOX, CAI, CRMD, COGT, CYRX, EYPT, GH, IBB, ,PACB, PSNL, ROIV, RYTM, SDGR, SUPN, VCYT, XNCR.
| COMPANY | TICKER | ||||||||||||||||
| P | P | % | Price | % | % | MCAP | RSI | Trend | P/cash | ||||||||
| P 1/20/23 | Initial | 2/4/23 | 12/24/23 | YTD % | 4/8/24 | % | 10\5/25 | i mo. | YTD | $B | |||||||
| Absci Corp | ABSI | 1/24 | 3.38 | 37.4 | 29.01 | 0.468 | 72.36 | u | 4.21 | ||||||||
| Adaptive BiioTech | ADPT | 4.11 | 5 | 2.6 | -46.94 | 14.38 | 11.91 | 139.67 | 2.19 | 60 | u | 10.04 | |||||
| Apelis Pharma | APLS | 7/20/25 | 23.8 | -15.39 | -25.42 | 3.01 | 52.68 | u | 8.28 | ||||||||
| Avidity Sciences | RNA | 7/1/24 | 25 | 47 | -6.67 | 61.62 | 6.38 | 56.72 | u | 5.69 | |||||||
| Bridge BIO Pharm | BBIO | 11/30/24 | 27 | 52.86 | -0.97 | 92.64 | 10.11 | 62 | u | 13.78 | |||||||
| Caris LIFE SCI | CAI | NEW | 8/8/25 | 31.78 | -8.81 | 13.5 | 8.94 | 52.37 | f | 12.77 | |||||||
| CorMedix | CRMD | 3.9 | 5.31 | 41.22 | 11.34 | -8.55 | 40 | 0.846 | 46.13 | f | 4.73 | ||||||
| Cognitive Sci | COGT | NEW | 7 | 15.76 | 20.77 | 102.05 | 2.2 | 77.4 | u | 9.34 | |||||||
| Crenetics | CRNX | 42.12 | 18.38 | 40.86 | 14.74 | -20.09 | 3.85 | 63.77 | f | 3.28 | |||||||
| Crescent Biopharm | CBIO | NEW | 8/10/25 | 11 | 11.72 | -17.7 | -52.93 | 0.162 | 34.48 | f | 1.06 | ||||||
| CRSPR Therap | CRSP | 49.61 | 55.27 | 63.67 | 56.63 | 53.91 | -13.88 | 67.74 | 23.48 | 72.1 | 6.16 | 66.34 | u | 3.7 | |||
| Cryoport | CYRX | 21.75 | 25.24 | 16.09 | -7.26 | 16.38 | 5.75 | 9.68 | -6.47 | 24.42 | 0.484 | 59.5 | u | 1.17 | |||
| Cytokinetics | CYTK | 31 | 65.34 | -21.74 | 56.97 | 7.47 | 21.11 | 6.82 | 77.98 | u | 8.44 | ||||||
| Denali | DNLI | 22 | 19.21 | -9 | 15.42 | -0.065 | -24.34 | 2,25 | 59.92 | f | 2.48 | ||||||
| Exelixis | EXEL | 22.25 | 23.75 | -1.21 | 40.09 | 5.83 | 20.39 | 10.79 | 52.86 | f,u | 13.61 | ||||||
| Eyepoint | EYPT | 7.13 | 3/6 | new | 13.73 | -2 | 84.3 | 0.946 | 54.73 | u,f | 3.67 | ||||||
| Guardent Health | GH | 11/6 | 25 | 62.84 | 4.51 | 105.7 | 7.84 | 62.36 | u | 12.56 | |||||||
| Ilumina | ILMN | 10/4/24 | 143 | 102.12 | 3.22 | -23.58 | 15.7 | 54.29 | f | 15.34 | |||||||
| Immunovant | IMVT | NEW | 8/13/25 | 15.89 | 16.9 | -1.4 | -31.77 | 2.95 | 55.8 | f,u | 4.82 | ||||||
| Natera | NTRA | 60 | 91.66 | 46.33 | 167.44 | -0.35 | 5.77 | 22.97 | 55.02 | u,f | 23 | ||||||
| Pacific Biosci | PACB | 11.29 | 55.68 | 11.58 | 8.59 | 5 | 1.1 | -85 | 1.49 | 17.32 | -18.58 | 0.447 | 69.25 | f,a | 1.45 | ||
| Personalis | PSNL | NEW | 8/10/25 | 4.55 | 7.34 | 40.08 | 26.99 | 0.65 | 72.7 | u | 3.69 | ||||||
| Protagonist Thera | PTGX | 12/12 | 41 | 64.83 | 7.1 | 67.95 | 4.03 | 56.22 | f | 6.99 | |||||||
| Quidel-Ortho | QDEL | 9/16/24 | 44 | 29.98 | 4.53 | -32.7 | 2.04 | 53.95 | d | 13.25 | |||||||
| Rhythm Pharma | RYTM | 4/9/25 | 52 | 99.02 | -3.04 | 76.88 | 6.58 | 49.1 | f | 22.33 | |||||||
| Solid Biosci | SLDB | 3/6/25 | 5.9 | 7.27 | 47.5 | 0.459 | 46.11 | f | 1.59 | ||||||||
| Schrodinger | SDGR | 8/13/25 | 20.59 | 7.63 | 6.74 | 1.52 | 62.41 | u,f | 3.39 | ||||||||
| Supernus | SUPN | 40.3 | 12.3 | 41.61 | 29.23 | -18.05 | 31 | 3.9 | 48.35 | 5.11 | 33.71 | 2.71 | 71.21 | u | 5.18 | ||
| Tempest AI | TEM | 7/10/24 | 52 | 91.66 | 15.12 | 171.5 | 15.92 | 70 | u | 56.7 | |||||||
| Twist Biosci | TWST | 18 | 3.76 | 34.03 | 31.54 | -14.53 | 31.07 | 20.61 | -33.14 | 1.88 | 72.94 | u | 7.79 | ||||
| Vericel | VCEL | 31 | 34.75 | 31.93 | 46.05 | 29.32 | 32.44 | -4.73 | -40.92 | 1.64 | 52.39 | d,f | 14.34 | ||||
| Veracyte | VCYT | 36 | 11.01 | -9.09 | 2.83 | 66.37 | u | 8.81 | |||||||||
| Wave | WVE | 7.15 | -13.75 | -42.2 | 1.14 | 47.42 | d | 5.58 | |||||||||
| Xencor | XNCR | 9 | 11.77 | 37.66 | -48.78 | 0.839 | 80.94 | u | 1.89 | ||||||||
| ArkGenomics | ARKG | 35.28 | 32.81 | 16.22 | 23.18 | -29.35 | 30.04 | 17.71 | 27.56 | n/a | 57.31 | u | |||||
| iShares BIO | IBB | 133.77 | -1.89 | 135.21 | -2.48 | 151 | 5.51 | 14.21 | 9.6 | 67.05 | u | ||||||
| SPDR Biotech | XBI | 90.39 | 87.62 | 5.57 | 83.49 | -6.51 | 101.39 | 8.52 | 15.03 | 4.71 | 67.28 | u | |||||