Update-5 1/27/27…The XLV was down 1.68% today primarily because UNH took \about a 20% hit on their 2026 outlook and proposed Medicare reimbursement from CMMS. Given the Administration’s posture to cut healthcare costs this should not be a surprise. Moreover the XLV currently has only about a 5% weighting in UNH stock because of multiple issues that have crushed the stock over the past year. UnitedHealth is down over 50% from a high over $600 in 2024. We will review sectors of healthcare tomorrow, but our primary focus the SMID caps held up today with the XBI holding the $128 level. The IBB closed at $176.90 up 0.6%.
- One of the SMID stocks we have on our trading list and own has been very active on news speculation is Acumen (ABOS) up 30.77% today and 46% over the past 5 days. The Company announced recently that it would release Phase 2 data on its Alzheimer’s drug, an oligomer selective antibody that targets amyloid beta.
Update-4 1/25/26…Merck no longer in talks to buy Revolution Medicines (RVMD) saying the two parties could not agree on a price which would have valued the Company at about $30B. The stock closed at $117on Friday . Prior to the announcement of potential buyer of RVMD the stock was in the low 80s. Price targets given by several analysts have been in the high 70s and higher with Mishuo at $90 and Truist at $99. The Company develops novel targeted therapies for RAS addicted cancers and has a deep pipeline of clinical stage products with Daraxonrasib in Registration but no product sales.
Update-3 1/24/26…Caution: A constellation of events and a weak tape near to an XBI top tells me to raise some cash. Geopolitical events, combined with domestic unrest and a major storm make it unlikely that we can push ahead to new highs over the next week or two from 1/26.
- ARKG at $32.63 up 6.53% over one month, IBB at $175.33 up 1.88% for one month, XBI at $128.04 up 2.52% for one month.
- Crazy volatile action like this: CRSP down 8.68% after being up big the previous day.
- Update-2 1/23/26: Take a little off after a record high.XBI and IWM weak.
- Sold QDEL on weakness with earnings a week away. Nice trading profit from early $20s.
- Materials and energy strong ; best hedge is precious metals
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Update-1 1/22/26 Strong momentum in SMID biotechs with XBI at 52 week high. GREEN screen day! Todays big movers ABOS up 9% at 2, ADPT up 8.48% at 19, CRSP up 11.11% at $60, DNLI up 12.93% at $20.93, PACB up 10.33 at $2.67, PSNL up 16.55% at 11.25, TEM up 4.65% at 68.36. Poised for new deals.
- ARKG up 5.68% at $34.24.Up 11.84%YTD. Holds CRSPR, TEM, GH, PSNL.
- Antibody Discovery market to hit $35B by 2035 a CAGR of 12.23%.
- Next-GEN Sequencing market to hit $103B by 2035.
- Two ETFs breaking out!.
SMID Biotech Stocks Still Show Bullish Trends
- But Momentum (RSI) is easing post JPM26; traders are taking profits for the new year.
- We need to get through the small cap earnings cycle over next 3 weeks with IWM up 18% over 1 year, 7.08% YTD.
- Upward Momentum post ASCO was relatively an easy call in 2025. e.g. Precision Oncology theme.
Overall despite strong headwinds and the treacherous cross-currents from (we are currently embroiled in the latest Trump Trade Tantrum in DAVOS) the Administration’s policies, life science stocks beat many sectors of the market with the XBI up 41% over 1 year and the IBB up 27%. We did not attend JPM26 this year but there are plenty of reports on the meeting but I think the Innovation trade was a clear winner. With this article I’d like to set some goals for 2026, assuming that the life science niche would continue to outperform the S&P 500 but not to beat 2025 which was a recovery year after peaking during the pandemic bubble year of 2021. My key assumption links the performance of the Russell-2000 (IWM) which has a great start, up over 7% YTD to life science stocks. I say this despite the underlying geopolitical storms brewing with trade wars and general attacks on science. and University research. The key market for 2026 will be the innovation trade represented by the Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at $264 down 0.7%, as of 11am EST.
Our best calls this year came with large cap biopharma earlier in 2025 followed by a year-end Q4 rally which exceeded our expectations up 27% for the year with the IBB. Picking large cap biopharma stocks did much better. Our trades in SMID stocks did much better but required too many trades which caused me to ask : “Are you a trader or long term investor?”. Apparently you can use your instincts leveraged at times with margin, in a Momentum Driven market to make profitable trades with annual returns exceeding 50%!. But in a true bull market like like 2025 one can also beat market indices with an ETF and a FUND or two and get a 25% return.
So refresh your timeline with our previous posts on SMID caps bacause they should determine how well the biotech markets perform because of clinical milestones, licensing and M&A. Here are some of the SMID life science stocks that should help us guage performance in 2026. This is not a “buy list” but a screen for overall SMID performance and stocks we have owned. We will periodically update the list.
PRICES are as of 1/19/26.
| Company | Ticker | P 1/19 | MktCap | % 1 YR | % YTD | P Cash | RSI | Recm | |
| Adapttive Biotech | ADPT | 17.52 | 2.67 | 153.18 | 7.86 | 12.57 | 55.81 | 1.26 | |
| Axsome Thera | AXSM | 1777.27 | 8.94 | 89.21 | -2.94 | 27.47 | 64.5 | 1.14 | |
| BridgeBio Pharma | BBIO | 76.26 | 14.7 | 123.57 | -0.3 | 22.75 | 54.35 | 1.26 | |
| Cogent BIosci | COGT | 38.94 | 5.92 | 379 | 9.63 | 15.15 | 59.25 | 1.31 | |
| Cytokinetics | CYTK | 62.58 | 7.65 | 33.18 | -1.51 | 7.92 | 48.17 | 1.43 | |
| Dianthus Therap | DNTH | 44.1 | 1.89 | 129.6 | 1.89 | 4.7 | 68.7 | 1.13 | |
| Exelixis | EXEL | 43.96 | 11.79 | 20.27 | -0.3 | 11.92 | 50.11 | 2.14 | |
| Eyepoint | EYPT | 37.12 | 1.25 | 107.43 | -17.46 | 6.12 | 37.12 | 1.08 | |
| Guardant Health | GH | 112.14 | 14.51 | 200.56 | 9.79 | 25.01 | 64.41 | 1.51 | |
| Illumina | ILMN | 141.65 | 21.6 | 3.12 | 8 | 16.94 | 55.14 | 2.5 | |
| Personalis | PSNL | 9.89 | 0.878 | 106.19 | 24.25 | 5.84 | 61.73 | 1.29 | |
| Protagonist Thera | PTGX | 82 | 5.13 | 124.38 | -0.62 | 8.9 | 42.31 | 1.23 | |
| Rhythm Pharma | RYTM | 101.63 | 6.78 | 85.93 | -5.05 | 16.3 | 44.63 | 1.12 | |
| Supernus | SUPN | 50 | 2.87 | 32 | 0.6 | 10.2 | 51.11 | 1.33 | |
| Tempest AI | TEM | 70.33 | 12.51 | 102.4 | 19.1 | 16.47 | 54.4 | 1.88 | |
| Veracyte | VCYT | 41.57 | 3.29 | 1.14 | -1.26 | 8.97 | 44.48 | 1.62 | |
| Xencor | XNCR | 12.79 | 0.913 | -36.15 | -16.46 | 1.94 | 33.7 | 1.21 | |
| ARK Genomics | ARKG | 31.82 | 30.25 | 9.72 | 57.63 | ||||
| iShares BIO | IBB | 170 | 27.83 | 0.71 | 49.43 | ||||
| SPDR Bio | XBI | 124 | 41.29 | 1.85 | 53.72 | ||||
Be sure to review the earlier post on our model with a more complete List of recommended biotech Trades.