Update-2 Small cap biotech rally continues..11/15/23.. 10:30am EST……As per previous post we are now in the beginning of an SMID Rally.See our post from last week with potential trades many of which are already up 10% or more:ABOS, CRBU, CRSP, CYRX, PACB, SUPN, VCYT…XBI up 2.2% at $72.50.
ARKG up 4% $27, IJR up 1.4% to $97.81.
IWM up 1.5% at $181
Another Weak Month for Healthcare Stocks
- No help from biotech stocks, down 6-7% this month. Needs M&A.
- Medtech continues to lose this past month down over 7%.
- Diabetes and weight loss is the only big play in 2023 with LLY and NVO.
Who knew biopharma stocks could be so volatile. Only LLY and VRTX remain close to 2023 highs with REGN close. The following stocks are closer to 2023 lows: BMY, PFE, GILD, MRK and others are at or near 52 week lows. Are we still dealing with the FED high rates for longer or Government clamping down go on drug pricing? Higher interest rates have definitely made it harder to raise money for SMID biotech companies. And with money markets yielding 5% the dividends from large caps are not as attractive. But still your healthcare portfolio could still have done well with some LLY or NVO. The GLP-1 class of drugs, drugs Mounjuro and Wagovi now have data showing they can reduce cardiovascular events. REGN annd VRTX are off their 2023 highs but doing extremely well YTD.
But now all healthcare sectors are down with only United Health (UNH) showing gains YTD. The NASDAQ -100 (QQQ) has gains of 42 % YTD so the narrative continues to favor TECH stocks especially with the AI theme. We could use some AI news in drug discovery.
Smaller cap biotechs can still do well through January 2023. CRSP made a huge move last week but is down 6% today!. Innovation is alive and well but we need deals and clinical data to validate the technology. And MEDTECH has been trashed so pick up some ABT, BSX or SYK at bargain prices.
LONG: ABBV, BSX, GEHC,SYK, MRK, REGN, UNH,VRTX.
| Model | ||||||||||||
| PORTFOLIO | * | |||||||||||
| 2020 | 2020 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
5 yr % Total Ret
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| Stock/ETF | Ticker | Price | Wgt | Price | Price | Price | Price | |||||
| 10/25 | % | 12/31 | % Perf | 12/31/21 | 12/31/22 | 11/11 | % Perf | %Perf | % | |||
| P | 30 days | YTD | ||||||||||
| iShares NAZ Bio | IBB | 136 | 10 | 151.5 | 25.7 | 152.62 | 130.55 | 115.53 | -6.1 | -12 | 7.24 | |
| iShares Russell 2k | IWM | 163 | 5 | 196.4 | 18.3 | 222.45 | 174.36 | 169.11 | -3.9 | -3.01 | 9.75 | |
| Merck* | MRK | 80 | 10 | 81.77 | -10 | 76.64 | 115 | 101.39 | -2.14 | -8.62 | 41.94 | |
| United Health | UNH | 330 | 15 | 350.7 | 27.19 | 502 | 530.27 | 541.21 | 3.24 | 2.08 | 95.7 | |
| SPDR S&P Bio | XBI | 117 | 5 | 140.8 | 48 | 111.96 | 83 | 66.95 | -7.14 | -19.34 | -17.12 | |
| Healthcare SPDR | XLV | 108 | 20 | 113.4 | 14.71 | 140.89 | 135.88 | 126.27 | -3.67 | -7.05 | 35.85 | |
| T.Rowe Hlth Sci | PRHSX | n/a | 10 | 99.65 | n/a | 104 | 89 | 83.41 | (4.07) | -7.14 | 4.75 | |
| iShares U.S MedT | IHI | 50 | 10 | 54.83 | 65.85 | 52.57 | 45.75 | -5.94 | -12.97 | 27.82 | ||
| MedTech* | ABT | 5 | 123.5 | 127.46 | 109.83 | 93.97 | (3.68) | -14.41 | 29.1 | |||
| peak yr | ||||||||||||
| Tracking Comp | ||||||||||||
| ARK Genomic | ARKG | 93.26 | 61.24 | 28.23 | 24.1 | -10.21 | -14.63 | -19.32 | ||||
| Direx3X Bull | LABU | 7.66 | 2.74 | -24.1 | -61.24 | -94.68 | ||||||
| FIDO Biotech | FBIOX | ** | 25.18 | 19.35 | 16.04 | 14.39 | -7.52 | -11.61 | -31.99 | |||
| FiDO MEDtech | FSMEX | 76.15 | 83.18 | 60.04 | 51.64 | (9.59) | -16.14 | -2.57 | ||||
| DOW | DIA | 310 | 363.32 | 331.34 | 343 | 5.56 | 3.53 | 31.88 | ||||
| S&P 500 | SPY | 379 | 475 | 382.41 | 440.6 | 1.4 | 15.21 | 58.63 | ||||
| NASDAQ-100 | QQQ | 315 | 397.85 | 266.33 | 378.39 | 2.66 | 42.1 | 120.61 | ||||
| Technology SPDR | XLK | 128.93 | 161.97 | 124.44 | 179.52 | 6.01 | 44.26 | 157 | ||||
| Top Biopharmas | * | 2022 | 11/11 | 5 yr % total | ||||||||
| Abbvie | ABBV | * | 161.64 | 138.59 | -6.92 | -14.24 | 56 | |||||
| Astra Zeneca | AZN | * | 68 | 63.17 | -7.12 | -6.83 | 54.19 | |||||
| Bristol Myers Sq | BMY | 71.05 | 50.61 | -10.25 | -29.66 | -5.21 | ||||||
| Gilead Sci | GILD | 85.39 | 75.92 | 0.44 | – | 6.66 | ||||||
| Eli Lilly | LLY | * | 447.71 | 597.71 | 3.18 | 63.38 | 432.67 | |||||
| Merck | MRK | * | 110.95 | 101.39 | -2.14 | -8.62 | 41.94 | |||||
| Pfizer | PFE | * | 51.24 | 29.48 | -11.12 | -42.47 | -29.83 | |||||
| Regeneron | REGN | * | 725 | 798.94 | -4.31 | 10.73 | 124 | |||||
| Vertex | VRTX | * | 288.78 | 373.65 | 3.63 | 29.39 | 106.95 | |||||