3/30 11;30a Major news on COVID-19 diagnostics spark rally. Abbott launches 5 minute test.
ABT up 7.28% ,JNJ up 6.8%, all large caps up, IBB up 2.55, XBI up 1.61%.
Risk reward still looks good for biotech by year-end 2020. See IBB 2 yr chart below.
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3/27 After today’s big drop in the market in the final hour the only real metric that tracks the market appears to be new cases of coronavirus infections. US cases rose over 100k according to John Hopkins.The NASDAQ fell 3.79% on Friday.
IBB at $104.7 near 12 month lows at $94 handle; XBI at $75.96 above 12 mo. lows of. $65.95.
Risk reward still looks good for biotech by year-end 2020.
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Coronavirus Focus Stocks * Ending March 28, 2020-(not a buy list*) Updated per 3/28
| Company | Stock | Price 3/6 | %Perf | 3/16 P | MCap | 3/28 P | Mcap$B | %Perf | |
| week | 4B | 4 wks | |||||||
| Co-Diagnostics | CODX | 12.89 | -8.83 | 9.09 | 226.49 | 9.15 | 228 | -43 | |
| Gilead Sci | GILD | 80.23 | 8.5 | 68.9 | 87.06 | 72.85 | 93 | flat | |
| Genmark Dx | GNMK | 4.54 | 0.275 | 4.16 | 0.252 | 13.54 | |||
| Inovio | INO | 14.09 | 166.31 | 6.13 | 0.894 | 8.32 | 1.21 | 90.3 | |
| Moderna | MRNA | 29.61 | 8.6 | 26.49 | 9.77 | 30.05 | 9.89 | 14.87 | |
| Regeneron | REGN | 494.43 | 8.3 | 440.83 | 48.5 | 449.52 | 49.5 | 4.15 | |
| Teledoc | TDOC | 135.9 | 9.6 | 116,74 | 8.49 | 164.16 | 11.94 | 21.47 | |
| VIr BIO | VIR | 45.7 | 15.1 | 45.76 | 4.61 | 34.3 | 3.76 | -43 | |
- does not include large biopharma and device companies such as ABT, DHR, JNJ, RHHBY, TMO etc.
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3/26… Big Biotech Rally Underway—-Green Screen Mode
- Large Caps strong MRK up 7.78%
- Mid Caps winners : ICPT NVCR SGEN etc
- in general about a 50% retracement from lows to 2020 highs.
Very broad moves GILD GSK IBB ILMN MRK MRNA TDOC etc
But it is still a traders market. Protect from downside levels
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March 24…At Close–Counter-trend Monster Rally
Follow Technicals
A Pandemic Understood only through Science and Data: Covid-19 Cases in the US are above 54,000.
Today was a good day to nibble on positions and check your portfolio for needed re-balancing. As you know by now all major indices soared with the NASDAQ up 8.11% to 7418. Every sector participated.Now we still need the Senate to conclude the bi-partisan Covid-19 stimulus package and time will tell where this bear market rally takes us. I would like to see another dayor two of gains in the life science sector before making any calls.The market may know the economy will decline and earnings will follow but first we need to see improvement in the Covid-19 infection and death curve (see Johns Hopkins Resource Center Corona virus). I hope to summarize some new thoughts on biotech stocks on Thursday after the close. Assumption #1 : last Friday should be a bottom for well financed biotech stocks because the companies are part of the solution to the pandemic in the same way that the defense industry is to fighting terrorism.
Here is brief snapshot of today where almost every stock was up:
- Coronavirus stocks were mixed to down with GILD holding gains near $74 and REGN at $450 down from last week’s peak during the Trump Press Conference.
- Gene therapy stocks were strong, many with >5% gains: BMRN EDIT CRSP MGTX RGNX VYGR.
- IBB up 5.25% to $10-2.62, XBI up 8.11% to $74.13.
- Top MID-caps were very strong: BPMC GWPH INCY MRTX NBIX NVCR RARE RGEN.
- Large caps were up big across the screen with leaders: ALXN AMGN BMY RHHBY VRTX.
$80 would be the mid-point. recovery from the bottom.
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March 23 …2p EST Very difficult to trade this volatile market until we get a bipartisan stimulus package.
- Our top pick continues to run: Teledoc (TDOC) up 16% to $164.
- Gilead Sciences (GILD) holding near $72.
- CRSP and EDIT are up. Somebody likes the long term potential.
- IBB and XBI a tad down under 1%.
- REGN the top large cap of 2020 but off Trump “mention”highs near $507.
We would favor biotech and tech going froward based on news and technicals. Many chips are green today.
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March 17….11:15 am Large Cap Biopharma Rally Underway (market wrap at close)
- IBB up 7.85% XBI up 5.26% etc
- REGN up 14.15%
- GILD up 8.5%, MRK up 7.67%, AMGN up 8.34%. ALXN up .93%, RHHBY up 4.38%
- NAZDAQ up 4.72% S&P up 4.66%
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Movers today 3/17 : CODX MRNA INO but most are up
Update-4 3/13/20-—Healthcare and Biotech Stocks Soar-Bipartisan Relief Package-A Done Deal
The WH news conference on coronavirus worked some magic today despite the lack of a detailed bipartisan economic rescue package (A sweeping coronavirus relief package was announced after the market close at about 6.26p EDT) .The key to the Press Conference appeared to be having commentary from the CEOs of major large companies that can impact the crisis .Despite the usual dose of political sniping by POTUS and some unanswered questions on the availability of coronavirus tests investors were left with some positive sentiment. Stocks rallied big in the last hour with most major indices up over 9%.
Given the crazy market volatility of the past week we should not expect calm trading days ahead.
Those of you who know the molecular diagnostics industry and platform technology knew this coronavirus test could be done, it was just an issue of standardization and scale.
THE IBB was up 6.34 % led by the large caps and our favorite pick Roche (RHHBY) up 13 % to $40.30. Another favorite Abbvie (ABBV) was up over 8% to $85.37. Mid-cap biopharmas near their 52 week lows also rallied big. If you like mid-caps take a look at Biomarin (BMRN) at $84.50 and gene therapy play with an approved treatment for hemophilia . The XBI was up 6.34%.
We will summarize our coronavirus grid later but leaders today were:TDOC and VIR with large caps also saw gains : GILD, RHHBY.
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Update-3 3/11 12N. The focus of discussion among the “experts” regarding the coronavirus epidemic is the need for accurate virus tests and some of these stocks rallied today: CODX GNMK; other plays were up as well; ENO, VIR. These stocks are extremely volatile. “Get enough tests!”
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Update -2 3/10 The speculation in most of these stocks did not go well unless you are a nimble day trader. With the exception of Teledoc (TDOC) a huge winner, first picked by us in January 2019, we can say there was no product nor scientific breakthrough, during the coronavirus crisis. An analysis will follow by weekend. including any major news on these stocks. Biotech ETFs trailed the market gains today with NASDAQ up 4.95%.
Selective DX and Tools stocks did well today so we will look for adding to : ILMN VCYT but GNMK has been disappointing.
- XBI up 2.73% to $85.10.
- IBB up 2.10% to $112.31.
- FBT up 3.05% to $139.05.
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Update-1 Also look at major drug companies for antivirals and dividends: ABBV, GSK, RHHBY.
Biotech Movers Amidst Speculation on Coronavirus Solutions
Major ETFs performance for Week Ending March 6: IBB down 0.4% to $118, XBI down 2.5% to $90.12 , XLV up 2.5% to $95.74, QQQ down 3.6% to $208.
This will be a working document to track and comment on news and speculative plays on coronavirus.We will add stocks on significant news. Teledoc is not a biotech stock but a telemedicine service that offers virtual non-critical healthcare solutions.Futures are down as of 12 a EDT. Monday will be an unusually volatile day not only from coronavirus but the cratering of crude prices from an OPEC clash.