Update-4..5/13…3:15 p TECH and SEMI rally but nothing for biotech and UNH is a disaster. Too volatile for trading. XBI at $77+.
Update-3…5/12..10a EDT. HUGE rally on China opening deal??…In the meantime SMID biotechs are soaring off the 2025 lows on hopes of big M&A ramp-up. MOMENTUM has come back to SMID biotechs.
Executive order on drug pricing comes back to “most favorite nation” policy to bring down drug prices. Stocks are volatile going from red to green , Who knows? Opening for biopharma companies to legislate drug prices by country GDP. More pressure on PBMs?
UPDATE -2 Continued: Are we back to a BEAR Market in BIOTECH?
There is a red screen today in BIOTECH with the IBB down 2% to the $116 level more than 20% off 52 week highs around $150. The XBI at $76 level is also at 52 week lows. So here are my SMID cap biotech PORTFOLIO winners: ADPT, CRMD, CYRX, GH, RYTM, SUPN. LARGE caps are also struggling. The strongest sectors since the APRIL 8 bottom are energy, industrials and technology.
Update-2—Tariffs for Pharma?
Many biopharma companies have pledged Billions of dollars in new manufacturing and R&D investments in the US: Lilly, Roche and JNJ as stated in their recent quarterly reports. The US drug industry still manufactures about 50% of their finished products in the US, unlike that of semiconductors which has moved abroad. So tariffs may not offer a solution especially with generic drugs which have low margins and have moved abroad. But some experts think changes in the US tax code could be revamped to address this very complicated issue. The consensus seems to be at this reading -nobody benefits from tariffs..
Update-1— 5/7 : Added Layers of Uncertainty for the Life Science Sector
FED will hold rates steady with 10 year 4.27%; biotech and medtech stocks held and in some cases bargain hunting. But the real risk for biopharma is pricing and TRUMP’S plans for tariffs and pricing of drugs. Then there are the tariffs. Many large cap biopharma stocks were down after hours; BMY, MRK,VRTX etc.
And breaking news a new surgeon general pick from the MAHA wing.
- BIOPharmas got crushed yesterday but holding today: ABBV, AMGN, GILD, JNJ all up>1%; IBB up 0.67% at $119.
- SMIDs stable today with XBI up 0.3% at $77 level; winners on our list: CRMD, CRP, GPCR, RYTM, TEM, VCEL etc.
- MEDtech -more green than red with IHI at $60.55: winners BAX, BDX, DHR, GHC, HOLX, SYK;BRKR up 3.3% on good financials.
SMID Biotech Stocks Hit with an Abrupt SELL-OFF on multiple NEWS items.
- Late morning SELL-OFF in BIOTECH stocks Attributed to Hiring of FDA critic
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals down sharply on Earnings and Revenue Miss.
- Serepta Pharmaceuticals down 26% on earnings.
We were going to show you in detail how many of our SMID (small and mid cap) biotech stocks performed since the April 8 lows until we saw the volatility spike in the biotech sector. The news that the FDA named Dr. Vinay Prasad, a critic of FDA policy and the U.S. Covid -19 response, as the top vaccine regulators ,added to big concerns about major changes at HHS, NIH and the FDA all headed up by Robert Kennedy Jr.. Dr. Prasad,a hematologist-oncolgisti is apparently a critic of the industry through his substack posts as well as other media commentary.
This hire must be put in context of the backdrop of the industry under fire for high drug prices from the previous administration and potentially being hit with onerous tariffs that could result in higher drug prices for the consumer. Then you have severe cutbacks in NIH research and clinical trial management so the complexity of policy and interrelated economic issues boggle the mind. As we hear every day, we’ll see.
Early in the day biotech stocks were slipping on earnings from one off the most successful; large cap biopharma companies Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) which was off 10% on an earnings miss because of light sales from their new non-opioid pain killer. The XBI closed down 6.63% to $77.16 off Friday’s high at the $83 handle. The IBB was down 5.77% to $118.60.
Here is a summary of SMID Cap stocks on our trading list. As of Sunday May 4.
| COMPANY | TICKER | ||||||||||||||||||
| P | P | % | P | % | % | MCAP | RSI | Trend | P/cash | ||||||||||
| P 1/20/23 | Initial | 2/4/23 | 12/24/23 | YTD % | 4/8/24 | % | 5/5/25 | 12 mos | YTD | $B | u,f,d H | ||||||||
| Absci Corp | ABSI | 1/24 | 3 | -39 | 15.65 | 0.385 | 50.27 | d, 6.34 | 3 | ||||||||||
| Adaptive BiioTech | ADPT | 4.11 | 5 | 2.6 | -46.94 | 9.84 | 235.8 | 64 | 1.46 | 69.82 | u, 10 | 7.56 | |||||||
| ADMA Biologics | ADMA | 19 | 3/18/25 | 23.52 | 249 | 37 | 5.61 | 61.49 | u, 23.5 | 47.2 | |||||||||
| Avidity Sciences | RNA | 7/1/24 | 25 | 32.2 | 25.88 | 10.7 | 3.88 | 66.8 | f,54 | 2.58 | |||||||||
| Bridge BIO Pharm | BBIO | 11/30/24 | 27 | 39 | 39 | 40.56 | 7.3 | 40.2 | u,66.8 | 13.54 | |||||||||
| Catalyst Pharma | CPRX | 16.1 | 16.58 | -10.86 | 14.89 | 11.42 | 24.84 | 65.38 | 19 | 3 | 62.36 | u,26 | 13.54 | ||||||
| CorMedix | CRMD | 3.9 | 5.31 | 41.22 | 9.38 | 74.67 | 15.8 | 0.64 | 62.64 | u,13 | 11.83 | ||||||||
| Crenetics | CRNX | 42.12 | 18.38 | 34 | -27.8 | -0.34 | 3.2 | 50.6 | f, 50.6 | 2.33 | |||||||||
| CRSPR Therap | CRSP | 49.61 | 55.27 | 63.67 | 56.63 | 53.91 | -13.88 | 38.25 | -30.5 | -2.82 | 3.3 | 58.8 | d, 53 | 1.74 | |||||
| Cryoport | CYRX | 21.75 | 25.24 | 16.09 | -7.26 | 16.38 | 5.75 | 5.86 | -65.85 | -24.88 | 0.29 | 52.3 | d,9.60 | 1.12 | |||||
| Cytokinetics | CYTK | 31 | 65.34 | -21.74 | 37.35 | -30.42 | -5.7 | 4.45 | 42.36 | u,58 | 4.14 | ||||||||
| Denali | DNLI | 22 | 19.21 | -9 | 16.44 | -23.29 | -2.2 | 2.39 | 61.61 | d,24 | 2.87 | ||||||||
| Exelixis | EXEL | 22.25 | 23.75 | -1.21 | 39.6 | 79 | 18.9 | 10.9 | 67.46 | u,38.58 | 9.72 | ||||||||
| Eyepoint | EYPT | 7.13 | 3/6 | new | 7.3 | -63 | -2 | 0.5) | 66.8 | u, 14 | 1.35 | ||||||||
| Guardent Health | GH | 11/6 | 25 | 46.85 | 152 | 53.56 | 5.8 | 53.76 | u, 53 | 8.28 | |||||||||
| Ilumina | ILMN | 10/4/24 | 143 | 77.9 | -35 | -41.7 | 12.33 | 49 | d, 156 | 10.1 | |||||||||
| Natera | NTRA | 60 | 91.66 | 46.33 | 156.7 | 67 | -1 | 21.3 | 57.6 | f, 169 | 21.9 | ||||||||
| Pacific Biosci | PACB | 11.29 | 55.68 | 11.58 | 8.59 | 5 | 1.1 | -85 | 1.13 | -35.8 | -38.2 | 0.339 | 43 | d, 2.7 | 0.87 | ||||
| Novavax | NVAX | 3.67 | – | 6.41 | 36 | -20.3 | 1.04 | 46.79 | d, 6.30 | 1.1 | |||||||||
| Protagonist Thera | PTGX | 12/12 | 41 | 45.51 | 78.2 | 17.9 | 2.82 | 49.58 | f, 60 | 6.67 | |||||||||
| Quidel-Ortho | QDEL | 9/16/24 | 44 | 29.1 | -31 | -34.6 | 1.96 | 48.75 | d,44.8 | 20 | |||||||||
| Rhythm Pharma | RYTM | 4/9/25 | 52 | 64 | 56.2 | 14.34 | 4.07 | 62 | u, 65.6 | 12.7 | |||||||||
| Solid Biosci | SLDB | 3/6/25 | 4.31 | -57.87 | 7.75 | 0.334 | 62.43 | f, 9.5 | 2.24 | ||||||||||
| Structure Therap | GPCR | 27 | -30.5 | – | 1.55 | 72.99 | u,42 | 1.76 | |||||||||||
| Supernus | SUPN | 40.3 | 12.3 | 41.61 | 29.23 | -18.05 | 30.07 | 3.9 | 32.84 | -6.3 | -13.65 | 1.83 | 57.71 | f,40 | 4.04 | ||||
| Tempest AI | TEM | \ | 7/10/24 | 52 | 57 | 41.8 | 69 | 9.87 | 39.6 | f, 92.7 | 22 | ||||||||
| Twist Biosci | TWST | 18 | 3.76 | 34.03 | 31.54 | -14.53 | 39.24 | 22.6 | -15.6 | 2.34 | 50.6 | f,56 | 8.64 | ||||||
| Vericel | VCEL | 31 | 34.75 | 31.93 | 46.05 | 29.32 | 38.95 | -18.65 | -29 | 1.96 | 40 | d, 56 | 15.41 | ||||||
| ViaCyte | VIAC | 30.35 | 50.3 | -23.4 | 2.37 | 50 | f, 44.5 | 8.17 | |||||||||||
| Wave | 8.11 | 37.8 | -34.5 | 1.25 | 59 | u,15 | 4.13 | ||||||||||||
| Xenon | XENE | NEW | 5/5 | 38 | 38.25 | (!!) | -2.35 | 2.93 | 62.83 | u, 46 | 4.58 | ||||||||
| ArkGenomics | ARKG | 35.28 | 32.81 | 16.22 | 23.18 | -29.35 | 22.7 | -6.3 | -3.72 | 55.7 | d,33.9 | ||||||||
| iShares BIO | IBB | 133.77 | -1.89 | 135.21 | -2.48 | 126.6 | -3 | -4.24 | 54.8 | u,148 | |||||||||
| SPDR Biotech | XBI | 90.39 | 87.62 | 5.57 | 83.49 | -6.51 | 83.5 | -5.5 | -7.3 | 56.3 | f, 100 | ||||||||