Update-5 9A 3/17 Green day especially MedTech: bought more QDEL and sector (IHI) looking to finally get bids: BDX, BSX, ISRG, MDT, SYK etc. SMID biotechs looking good for tradin list XBI……. Update at 2P EDT.
Update-4…MARCH 15,2026…So next week we can look at the AI market where $BBs of capital are invested in AI infrastructure and software compared to the massive daily expenditures of the War in Iran. This Barron’s writer thinks the demand for AI financing is a big problem!
Update-3—3/14/26: A sobering Sell-Off.If you were following the market from the end of February and trying to find a trade or a place to hide amidst the volatility it was energy. Ok utilities were up 3% MTD but Energy was up 6% MTD. But the surprising backstory was Financials down 9% YTD not just because of the war but because there were concerns about BD funds and the private credit panic that boiled over when redemptions were cut back. Healthcare stocks normally a defensive sector lost 5% MTD but improved a bit over the week as did the technology down only 0.72% over the past week. With the big Nvidia show this week- the GPUTechnology Conference on Monday could provide a lift from the GEOpolitical turmoil. The MAGS is down 9.75% YTD and the XLK is down 4.2% YTD, only 0.98% MTD, so this could be a sector to look for new trades.
Healthcare stocks were down about 2.44% for the week, still down about 3% YTD. Conclusion- no damage to our bullish 2026 biotech model yet.
- The XBI at $121.80 was down only about 1.75% WTD, and flat YTD so it looks more like fear buyers than waves of selling.
- The IBB at the $165 level was down 1.22% over the week and down 1.93% YTD.
- Both indices peaked in mid-January as expected.
- The ARKG was more volatile down 5% WTD and 9.1 % YTD.
- The PPH held upper down only 1.4(% WTD, up 1.15% YTD.
Our biggest concern near term for traders would be any weakness in the major small cap indices like the Russell 2000 down 5% MTD which correlates with our SMID trading list. Stocks to watch on our trading list are: ABOS, CYTK, EYPT, ILMN, PPH, PSN, TEM, XNCR.
Here Is our SMID biotech post from 1/19/26 for assessing the strength of the bull market in biotech.
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Update-2…3/11/26–Energy sector strong-majors:COP,CVX, XOM; semis working: AMAT, MU LRCX etc, Major indices holding with NASDAQ and MAGS flat; ORCL up 9% on e; crude up at $87 so wait and see. Precious metals treading water.
- Core CPI at 2.5% w/o oil means potential risk stagflation.
- Large cap biopharma holding: ABBV, AMGN, PFE and some speculation in SMID cap biotechs; MedTECH continued weak: TMO, SYK.
- SMID biotechs choppy with XBI down a tad.
Update-1 3/9/26–Crude drops from $119 to $below $88 on Trump talk about war being almost over easing concerns about another energy crisis, Amazing reversal on S&P 500 closes up 0.8% after being down 1.5% with short covering that began early. But you had to be there ie trading by the hour to appreciate the move. Technology shares were an early big mover up about 1.85% today, followed by healthcare and comm services both up over 1%. For today it was back to the ’25 trade with 2%+ movers like NVDA, GOOGL and big biopharma was back with LLY,GILD and MRK showing nice gains.
SMID biotech trading was active and we added to our tiny position in Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) at under $1.90 and it closed at $1.97. The XBI was up 2.52% to $127. BDSX and XNCR also had good momentum.
Can you keep with up Volatility by Sector in the Midst of War with Iran
- Large cap Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals should be stable or gain as a Defensive Sector- But last week lost over 3%!
- SMID biotech stocks could rally this week but depends on Russell Performance near term :XBI, IWO and IWM.
- Three ETFs or Sectors to consider for rebalancing your portfolio:. Energy, Industrials, Aerospace/Defense (ITA), (XAR) But they are already up big. So look at beaten upTECH stocks MAGS down 0.59% 5 d, down 8.16% YTD; XLK down 1% 5d, down 4.64% YTD.
Cross-currents in the Markets : AI volatility now complicated by War with Iran.
We wrote recently about the sector swings in the market this month caused by AI, Economic data and Administration policies. Now we have to consider re-balancing of portfolio as the War with Iran brings implications for the global energy markets and Aerospace/Defense stocks as examples. Here are Sectors per State Street iSharers ETFs to track and performance as of 3/6/26 after one week of WAR:
- Sector Leaders in 2026 and past 5 days and YTD: Energy (XLE) up 1.4%, 26.3% , Materials (XLB) down 4% 5d, up 12% YTD, Industrials (XLI) ) down 2.63% 5 d, up 10.92% YTD, Information Technology (XLK) down 0.59% 5 d, down 2.63% YTD.
- Healthcare: XLV P $152.70, 5 d down 4.68%, down 1.36% YTD, up 2.3% 1 y., this ETF overweights biopharma, JNJ but top MEDtechs lagging MDT and SYK.
- Equal Weight SMID BIOtech: (XBI) P $124, 5 d down 2.65%, up 1.7% YTD, 1Y up 42.4%.
- Large cap weighted (IBB).P $167.56 5d down 4.45%, down 0.72%. YTD, I y up 23% A core position in large caps needs to comeback this week, with our top five positions: ABBV, BMY, FBIOX, GILD, LLY, RHHBY, NVS, VRTX.
- U.S. Medical Devices (IHI): P $56.76, 5d down 5.76% , down 8.67% YTD. This ETF is overweight ABT, ISRG, BSX, SYK and BDX. Tariffs are one issue.
Recently in February a Sector Review which include other focused ETFs like:Van ECK Pharmaceutical (PPH) P $105.94 down 5.16% up 2.68% YTD,1Y up12 %. The one year high was the $111 mark, a big drop.
PPH compared to XBI.
SMID Cap Biotechs-active trades and Stocks to Watch (all longs):
- Biodesix (BDSX) P $18.78 new to trading list, a new high flyer lung cancer diagnostics stock is up 18.78% this week. We owned a little of BDSX for 2 yrs and added more this week on a breakout,Q4 Revs at $28M, Market cap $150M ,Cash/sh at $1.94 and new $30 price target. Wm Blair Upgrade .
- Xencor (XNCR) P $11.32 on our trading list, a clinical stage biopharma we have owned since about $9 sh, focused on oncology and autoimmune diseases with unique technology for developing engineered therapeutic antibodies. Mark cap $830M, $7.7 cash/sh, Revs $125 M thru partners, was volatile this week because of royalty rift with partner Alexion on Ultomiris product. Buy ratings from Barclays , Piper and Wedbush.
Some of our best SMID Cap trades of the past 12 mos.
ABOS, ADPT, COGT, EYPT, GH, PSNL, ROIV, RYTM, SUPN, XNCR.
Get ready for a volatile week. You should be overweight large cap biopharma, industrials/aerospace defense and energy going into this War. Week. But look for reversal to the upside for Technology and within one month a recovery for small caps (IWM,XBI).
3:50P EDT BIG turnaround looks like the winners will be technology , semis and biopharma .