1/5/26..A red screen day in biotech and biopharma : SMID caps brought two ETFS down about 1% but damage in SMIDs was contained off the lows. some stocks we own were actually up over 2%: CYRX up 2.82%,TEM up 3.75%, TMO up 3.15%,PSNL up 2.16%,QDEL up 4.44% …etc. But many large caps were down over 1% with some rotation as buyers shifted their focus to energy services and refining as these two sub- sectors were expected to benefit early from investment into VZ.
We will summarize large biopharma metrics tomorrow as baseline prior to 2026 earnings and the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference. One trend that is beginning is positive for MEDTECH, with BDX up 2%,ILMN up 5.2% and TMO up 3.15%.
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1/4/26…SMID caps that should be strong holds and are now in the money.
- ADPT, COGT, CRMD, EYPT, GH, ILMN, NTRA, QDEL, RNA, RYTM, ROIV (IMVT), SUPN, XNCR.
Stocks to watch for gains in Q1:BBIO, CYTK, TEM, VCYT.
Assumptions: XBI needs to hold 117 to maintain momentum; IBB 165 before JPM Conference. Then exceed current highs.
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!/2/26…Happy New Year!
We shoudn’t be surprised at the action over the past week as trading volume was way down and sellers were presumably taking profits on tax related trades. The IBB was down 2.45% for the week closing at $169 up 27% for one year. Most of the gains took place in Q4, of a recent low of $139 on 928/25.
Similarly the equal weighted, more volatile XBI was down 3.78% for the week at $121.52 and up 32.77% over one year.The XBI reached a high of $124 on 12/24.
The XLV gained 13% over one year, closing at $155.51 again with good gains in Q4.
Expectations are higher for 2026 as many investors feel there will be some rotation into the SMID cap sector as well as continued momentum from stocks we follow. But get ready for the Annual JPMorgan Healthcare Conference on Jan. 12-15 as major news tends to drop at this Conference coinciding with 2025 earnings and some guidance for 2026.
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Health Science Stocks: Biopharma and MedtTech Large Cap Picks
- We should see a pick- up in the lagging MedTech sector in 2026 with good potential in large caps like Intuitive Surgical.
- Large Cap Biopharma have been our best picks; review your positions after earnings- new ideas: BMY. NVS RHHBY.
- SMID biotechs should continue to run but with more volatility-expect a brief late January sell-off.
We recently did a review of the healthcare sector with a focus on “Health Science” stocks encompassing both Biotechs and MedTech sectors. After the rally on Friday it might be good time to review your Large Cap portfolios to see if it needs rebalancing. My top picks in 2025 in order of holdings and conviction are as follows : ABBV, GILD, LLY and VRTX. Early in Q4 we added Regeneron (REGN) and it has rewarded us with a huge move of 49% over 6 months from the low $500s to current value of $768. Over the past week we also added Bristol Myers (BMY) at a price of about $$52 and it is now at $54.19 up 18% over one month. BMY offers good value with a fwd PE of 9 and a P/S of 2.3 with a Dividend of 4.5%.Not all analysts have a buy on the stock but two recent upgrades see a $60 handle. BMY also settled with the ADMINISTRATION on “Affordability” by offering a 3 yr discount to Medicaid patients for their Eliquis drug.
We added two attractive Swiss stocks as a hedge against a weak dollar and with good pipelines: Novartis ()NVS) and Roche ADR RHHBY). Both stocks pay a 2+% dividend.
We commented last report that the MedTech sector is lagging with the IHI is up only 7.34% YTD and 1.15% over one month. We have owned several large caps in this sector for many years such as ABT, BDX, BSX and FSMEX, but in 2025 they are flat. I am temped to add an call option position in Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) which recently bounced on a positive earnings report in October.. ISRG is a purel play in robotic surgery with little competition and QtQ sales growing above 20%. But the stock is expensive with a fwdPE of 59 and a P/S of 21.11.The stock shows spurts of buyers with an RSI now at 59.45. Many analysts are skeptical with an overall ration of 2.06, a strong hold. Because of a strong available marke and an aging population and more applications coming we are expecting tea any good news in guidance or earnings will boost the stock. Two upgrades by Truist and RBC Capital should help the stock now at the $572 level with price targets at $650. A good example for bargains in the sector is we bought Quidel (QDEL) in the low 20s now at $29 just 2 weeks ago.
SMID Cap Life Science stocks. Almost all of our focus trading stocks are up BIG today. Winners we still hold. ADPT, COGT, CRMD, EYPT, GH, ILMN, IMVT (ROIV), RYTM, QDEL, SUPN, XNCR. Many of these companies will present at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference on Jan 13 2026.
- ETF trackers as of 11:!5 a EST: ARKG up 4% at $30.80, IBB up 1.4% at $172, XBI up 2.3% at $126.
- The XBI is up 40% YTD!
- The Fidelity Biotechnology Fund (FBIOX) is up 33.6% YTD.
Normally you think of year-end with holidays, vacations and busy with family activities; but the last weeks of 2025 and through January should be unusually manic with all the crosscurrents of global news, M&A and high volume trading, tax selling etc. So stay tuned for opportunities and volatility.