Update-1..2/15/24…Post from 9/23 biotech bottom when we picked ABBV,GEHC. Near/at new 52 wk. highs : ABBV, LLY, MRK, VRTX, XPH etc.
Update- -2/12/24….Gilead Sciences responds immediately to recent trial disappointment to buy CymaBay,a $4.3B deal expanding liver portfolio. See chart below as well.
IBB Chart
Large Cap Biopharmaceuticals
Our new market model envisions an increase in M&A by large cap biopharma to expand pipelines. Valuations remain attractive. But it’s a MOMENTUM driven market.
- Growing divergence among winners and losers from Eli Liily (LLY) to Pfizer (PFE).
- Gilead Sciences (GILD) hurt by late stage drug cancer trial failure.
- Abbvie (ABBV) antes up investments in neuroscience.
- No end to obesity drug plays LLY,NOVO,AMGN.
- Watch Amgen in coming months for data on AMG786 a obesity drug.
- SMID biotech companies are in a bear market with the IBB flat over one year.
- Top Winners -One Year: LLY, VRTX, REGN, AMGN, MRK,GSK, ABBV.
- Biggest Losers-One Year: PFE, BMY, GILD, AZN, BIIB.
- WINNERS YTD: LLY. MRK, ABBV, GSK, REGN,
- Pfizer is a contrarian turnaround play with new deals..
Long: ABBV, GILD, LLY, MRK,PFE, REGN, VRTX
| Company | Ticker | Price | Price | Price | Price | PRICE | % Perf | Price | tech | ||||||
| 1/15/18 | 3/31/23 | 11/1/19 | 10/8/2023 | 2024 | YTD | FWD | Analyst | % | 52 week H | 1 yr % | 1/7/24 | u/d 10/8 | |||
| 2/11/24 | % Perf | P/S | PE | Recom | Div | ||||||||||
| Abbvie | ABBV | 100.000 | 159.37 | 81.75 | 148.23 | 174.08 | 12.33 | 5.66 | 14.28 | 1.89 | 3.58 | 175.4 | 17.07 | 162.14 | u |
| Alexion*(ALXN) | ALXN | 123.000 | 182.5 | 109.38 | – | 40.33 | n/a | 4.56 | 9.38 | n/a | *acquired by AZN | AZN | |||
| Amgen | AMGN | 185.000 | 241.75 | 221 | 263 | 291.12 | 1.08 | 5.43 | 13.68 | 2.31 | 3.18 | 329 | 21.3 | 303 | – |
| AstraZeneca* | AZN | 35.000 | 69.41 | 40.34 | 67.42 | 62.26 | -7.56 | 4.21 | 13.27 | 1.59 | 2.51 | 76.56 | -7.65 | 68.38 | d |
| Biogen | BIIB | 336.000 | 278.31 | 299.2 | 263.25 | 240.98 | -6.87 | 3.63 | 15.24 | 1.55 | – | 319.76 | -5.69 | 257.88 | d |
| Bristol Myers* | BMY | 63.000 | 69.31 | 57.16 | 56.66 | 49.81 | -2.92 | 2.25 | 6.99 | 2.58 | 4.93 | 75.18 | -30.33 | 52.23 | d |
| Celgene* (BMY) | CELG | 106.000 | n/a | 108.53 | – | 77 | n/a | 4.69 | 8.7 | n/a |
*acquired by BMY
|
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| Gilead Sci | GILD | 79.000 | 82.97 | 61.69 | 74.74 | 73.67 | -9.06 | 3.39 | 9.78 | 2.19 | 4.28 | 88.29 | -13.87 | 87.87 | d |
| GlaxoSmithK* | GSK | 38.000 | 35.58 | 45 | 36.65 | 41.31 | 13.09 | 2.25 | 9.6 | 2.3 | 3.65 | 42.21 | 15.04 | 39.21 | u |
| Eli Lilly | LLY | 85.000 | 343.42 | 113 | 565.22 | 740.16 | 26.97 | 20.59 | 41.48 | 1.7 | 0.71 | 745.7 | 116.55 | 618.55 | u |
| Merck | MRK | 59.000 | 106.39 | 78 | 103.88 | 125.45 | 15 | 5.27 | 13 | 1.59 | 2.6 | 128 | 17.55 | 117.22 | u |
| Pfizer | PFE | 40.8 | 33.13 | 27.56 | -4.27 | 2.66 | 10.1 | 2.25 | 6.18 | 40.32 | -36.41 | 29.47 | d | ||
| Regeneron | REGN | 367.000 | 821.67 | 310.48 | 836.57 | 953.42 | 8.55 | 7.98 | 20.17 | 1.76 | – | 974 | 28 | 913 | u |
| Vertex | VRTX | 158.000 | 315.07 | 196 | 360.62 | 422.91 | 3.94 | 11.08 | 22.89 | 2 | – | 422.91 | 45 | 416.5 | u/- |
| 3/31 | 11/19 | 10/7/23 | 2/11/24 |
%YTD
|
1/7/24 | ||||||||||
| XBI | 76.21 | 93 | 72.23 | 91.04 | 1.96 | 92.6 | 5.75 | 89.3 | u | ||||||
| IBB | 129.16 | 119.65 | 122.48 | 134.59 | -0.93 | 139.41 | 1.65 | 136.12 | u/- | ||||||
| FBIOX | 15.63 | 20.26 | 15.47 | 18.7 | 4.88 | 18.7 | 14.65 | 17.93 | u | ||||||
| PRHSX | 87.75 | 79 | 86.37 | 93 | 5.92 | 93 | 4.91 | 88.33 | u/- | ||||||
| XLV | 129.46 | 121.11 | 1 | 144 | 5.59 | 145.03 | 9.72 | 139.12 | u | ||||||
| XPH | 41.01 | 39.47 | 39.05 | 43.83 | 5.31 | 44.31 | 2.17 | 44.31 | u | ||||||
| UNH | 472.59 | 252 | 524.81 | 518.22 | -1.57 | 525.95 | 6.69 | 537.23 | u/- | ||||||
| QQQ | 320.93 | 201.23 | 364.7 | 437.05 | 6.72 | 387.98 | 44.87 | 396.75 | u | ||||||