Update-2 8/19..11:15 am EDT…RALLY in SMID biotechs continue with moves in ARKG and XBI.
UPDATE-1 12n AUG 15…MOmentum is picking up in our SMID trading list.
- We are long bellwether XBI and added ARK Genomic Revolution (ARKG) as a trade because this ETF has many of the biotech names that focus on long term INNOVATION in the life sciences.
- Moreover the inevitable news is hitting the media that some large cap drug stocks may be under pressure from CMS price control action related to the IRA list which has been published. Thus we expect more deals with SMID (small and mid cap) companies.
- Some of today’s big movers: ABOS, CPRX, CRBU, CRSP, DNLI, NVAX, PACB, RNA, SDGR, TEM, VCYT, TXG.
SMID Life Science Stocks Rally on Weaker Inflation Data.
- SMID stocks are very tradeable and balance sheets look surprisingly good.Volatilty remains high.
- Weaker than expected PPI up only 0.1% ignite rally with decline in services. Rate cuts imminent for September.
- Green screen day for SMID sector shows underlying potential of biotechs.
On an active trading day these SMID biotech stocks come to life. But we are in the peak vacation season with few trade shows or medical meetings so little volume and news to excite traders. But after the craziness of last week we”ll enjoy the doldrums in here. As you can see from the data below large cap tech stocks have come down with the QQQ up only about 11% YTD while a diversified health sciences FUND like PRHSX is up 10.7% YTD, close to parity. Even the more defensive large cap healthcare XLV is up almost 10% YTD with much less risk.
SMID Life Science stocks are more volatile of course and the XBI reflects that up only 7% YTD. The IBB has more mixed results but is up 4.65% YTD. We just went through earnings season with many of the Large Cap Biopharmas and they are doing better than technology ETFs as you can see from our previous post, “Port in a Storm”.
We are developing a model for trading these SMID LIFE SCIENCE stocks based on momentum and technicals..We have pre-screened these companies for CASH and ANALYST COVERAGE as well. This is not a “buy and hold list” but a group of companies that have longer term potential for new products and/or M&A. The last column gives some information on our trading results.
The bull case is that even in a weaker economy life science news and dealmaking creates positive sentiment. Update 8/13 3p. A number of reports to today indicate small M&A deals <$5B are picking up. The deals plug pipeline holes and have less FTC scrutiny.
We currently hold the following stocks on our List; ABOS, ADPT. CPRX, CRMD<EXEL.GERN, PACB, TWST, VCEL,VCYT, XBI.
We made profitable trades in the following stocks: GERN NTRA NVAX,TWST,TXG.
We will eventually cull out the companies that are too volatile or have limited upside.
| Company | Ticker | $ | P | YTD % | YTD | %YTD | %MTD | trade | cash | ||||||||
| P | P | % | P | $M | |||||||||||||
| Acumen Therap | ABOS | 5.29 | 3.57 | -33.89 | 3.17 | -17.45 | 2.64 | -31.25 | 16.3 | H | 109 | ||||||
| Adaptive BiioTech | ADPT | 4.11 | 5 | 2.6 | -46.94 | 4.47 | -8.78 | 26.27 | H,$ | 291 | |||||||
| Avidity Sciences | RNA | new | 7/1/24 | 25 | 46.95 | 418.78 | 16.3 | – | 162 | ||||||||
| Catalyst Pharma | CPRX | 16.1 | 16.58 | -10.86 | 14.89 | 11.42 | 18.48 | 9.93 | 18.39 | H | 375 | ||||||
| Caribou Biosci | CRBU | 6.29 | 6.17 | -0.175 | 3.71 | -35.25 | 1.94 | -66.14 | 19.75 | S,$ | 117 | ||||||
| CorMedix | CRMD | 3.9 | 5.31 | 41.22 | 3.82 | 1.6 | -11.16 | H,$ | 59 | ||||||||
| Crenetics | CRNX | 42.12 | 18.38 | 47.64 | 33.9 | -1.22 | – | 116 | |||||||||
| CRSPR Therap | CRSP | 49.61 | -25 | 55.27 | 63.67 | 56.63 | 53.91 | -13.88 | 47 | -24.9 | -14.57 | H | 94 | ||||
| Cryoport | CYRX | 21.75 | -42.34 | 25.24 | 16.09 | -7.26 | 16.38 | 5.75 | 8.23 | -46.87 | 37.17 | H,L | 427 | ||||
| Cytokinetics | CYTK | 31 | 65.34 | -21.74 | 55.79 | -33.18 | 1.7 | – | 1840 | ||||||||
| Denali | DNLI | 22 | 19.21 | -9 | 22.39 | 4.33 | 6.82 | – | 1350 | ||||||||
| Exelixis | EXEL | 22.25 | 23.75 | -1.21 | 26.97 | 12.42 | 21.76 | H | 198 | ||||||||
| Evolent Health | EVH | 30.83 | 13.74 | 31.96 | 32.08 | 14.25 | 27.65 | -16.29 | 26.4 | -20 | 38.15 | S,L | 233 | ||||
| Geron | GERN | 3.19 | 9.24 | 3.22 | 2.29 | -5.37 | 3.79 | 79.62 | 4.7 | 2.59 | 2.62 | S,H,$ | 65 | ||||
| Humacyte | HUMA | new | 8/1/24 | 8.25 | 7.91 | 178.52 | 35.1 | H | 80 | ||||||||
| Intelllia | NTLA | 25.5 | 21.46 | (29,62) | -23.98 | H | 144 | ||||||||||
| Immatics | IMTX | 9.3 | 9.9 | 13.66 | 10 | -4.94 | 11.53 | -9.88 | -0.48 | H | 117 | ||||||
| Natera | NTRA | 60 | 91.66 | 46.33 | 114.57 | 82.8 | 4.7 | S,$ | 813 | ||||||||
| Pacific Biosci | PACB | 11.29 | 55.68 | 11.58 | 8.59 | 5 | 1.47 | -85 | 1.59 | (83.790 | 21.37 | H,L | 76.1 | ||||
| Novavax | NVAX | 3.67 | – | 11.6 | 141.67 | -2.03 | S,H,$ | 487.2 | |||||||||
| Recursion Pharm | RXRX | 10.75 | 8.12 | -17.65 | 6.29 | -36.21 | !5.46) | S,$ | 483 | ||||||||
| Rezolute | RZLT | new | 7/8/24 | 4.25 | 4.35 | 338 | 3.08 | S $ | 5.93 | ||||||||
| Roivant | ROIV | 11.4 | 11.03 | -1.78 | 11.12 | -0.98 | 2.68 | – | 6550 | ||||||||
| Supernus | SUPN | 40.3 | 12.3 | 41.61 | 29.23 | -18.05 | 30.07 | 3.9 | 32.1 | 4.53 | 13.47 | H | 52 | ||||
| Tempest AI | TEM | new | 7/10/24 | 39.7 | -3.73 | 12.32 | H S$ | 479 | |||||||||
| Twist Biosci | TWST | 18 | 3.76 | 34.03 | 31.54 | -14.53 | 53.9 | 46.26.61 | 1.91 | S,H,$ | 289 | ||||||
| 10x Genomics | TXG | 47.84 | 56.58 | 55.27 | 27.59 | -50.79 | 20.43 | -63.49 | 11.95 | S,$ | 379.8 | ||||||
| Vericel | VCEL | 31 | 34.75 | 31.93 | 46.05 | 29.32 | 50.11 | 45.62 | -0.98 | H | 75.8 | ||||||
| Veracyte | VCYT | 24.89 | 39.43 | 26.67 | 28.27 | 19.13 | 19.31 | -29.81 | 29.27 | 6.4 | 37.61 | H,S4 | 237 | ||||
| SPDR Biotech | XBI | 86.99 | 14.75 | 90.39 | 87.62 | 5.57 | 83.49 | -6.51 | 95.54 | 7 | 1.24 | H,S,$ | – | ||||
| iShares BIO | IBB | 133.77 | -1.89 | 132.51 | -2.48 | 142.17 | 4.65 | 2.38 | – | ||||||||
| HealthcareSPDR | XLV | 135.02 | – | 143.22 | 5.02 | 149.98 | 9.97 | 3.47 | – | ||||||||
| wildcard | |||||||||||||||||
| ArkGenomics | ARKG | 35.28 | 32.81 | 16.22 | 23.18 | -29.35 | 24.53 | -22.65 | 3.01 | – | |||||||
| T.RowePrice | PRHSX | 86.84 | -3.32 | 92.49 | 5.22 | 96.71 | 10.73 | 1.97 | H,$ | ||||||||
| – | |||||||||||||||||
| 12/24/23 | 8/12/24 | %YTD | m ytd | ||||||||||||||
| iShares CoreS&P | IJR | 108.34 | 14.48 | 107.62 | -0.58 | 109.6 | 1.32 | -1.54 | |||||||||
| iShares Russell | IWM | 201.48 | 15.55 | 204.45 | 1.86 | 205.86 | 2.55 | -3.53 | |||||||||
| NASDAQ-100 | QQQ | 408.38 | 53.36 | 440.47 | 7.56 | 453.19 | 10.7 | -8.42 | |||||||||
| Fido MED Tech | FSMEX | 61.77 | 63.36 | 2.26 | 0.19 | ||||||||||||
| T.RowePrice | PRHSX | 86.84 | -3.32 | 92.49 | 5.22 | 97.33 | 10.73 | -1.1 | |||||||||
| iShares MED Dev | IHI | 53.65 | 2.05 | 57.3 | 6.17 | 55.79 | 3.37 | -1.19 | |||||||||
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