SMID Biopharma FOCUS Trades for the Next Move Up
- Seasonality and technicals favor SMID Cap Biotech through July: ASCO,M&A.
- Needs support from sector trades in overall market : IWM up 12.93% YTD, XBI, IBB and Large cap Biopharma earnings.
- Geopolitical backdrop is not a factor except for lack of TRUMP Admin support for University R&D and sciences in general.
As we review and update our SMD biotech portfolio we feel a bit sidetracked by our focus on AI and geopolitical angst. How can an individual or a small player focus on a tiny sector of Healthcare stocks when the momentum and $$$Billions are flowing into AI and Information Technology sector.
First here is a summary of sector performance over the past week which was fabulous bringing most major indices to new highs:
The dominant themes of the market in 2026 are the War with Iran and AI and technology stocks. YTD performance of leading SPDR ETFs:
- Energy (XLE) up 33%, Materials (XLB) up 13.5%, Industrials (XLI) up 12.55%, Infotech (XLK) up 10.79%, Real Estate (XLRE), the laggards are;
- Healthcare (XLV) down 5.69%, Financials (XLF) down 4.82%, Communication services (XLC) down 1 %.
Within Healthcare the sectors can be tracked with the following ETFs:
LARGE CAP PERFORMANCE
Large cap weighted (IBB) down 0.89% YTD, up 33.9% one year; Equal weighted (XBI) up 6.96% YTD, up 58% one year; Van Eck (PPH) down 0.82% YTD up 17.8% one year. SMID Caps led large caps in Q1 2026, just as the Russell 200 (IWM) was up 13.5% YTD.
Here is the last update we did for large cap biopharmaceuticals in early February just before the sector peaked in 2026. Here are major stock gainers over one year in early February: GILD 46%, AZN 32%, ABBV 27%, LLY 26%, AMGN 20%.
Obviously there is volatility in performance since our last review but overall we still believe that large caps should be the core of your biotech portfolio. Some new leaders as of Q1 2026 are: JNJ up 9.78%, BMY up 7.93%, MRK up 6.56% YTD, BIIB up 6.29%., NVS up 5% YTD,27.5% 1 yr. A Top Fund pick FBIOX was down 2.67% YTD.
The total market cap of the top publicy traded biotechnology companies is about $1.8T. The market cap of Microsoft (MSFT) is about $3.T.
SMID CAP TRADiNG MODEL
I’m afraid you you’ll have to review some our SMID Posts to fully understand our SMID cap trading model. But you can re-read this post from mid January for starters. If you are not a frequent trader there is one ETF that reflects the outperformance of SMID cap biotechs the XBI.
Eventually we hope to add more resources in both life science and software expertise now that we know the model works in the current biotech bull market .Consider these overall results from our trading list over the past 12 months:
- Best recent trades among our current holdings % YTD: ABSI up 42%, ADPT 91.5% ! yr), RCUS 7%, AXSM 21%, CYRX 7%,COGT 535% (1 yr), EYPT 85% (1 yr), GH 78% (1yr), ILMN 65% (1 yr),PSNL 43% (!YR), SUPN 47% (1yr), XNCR 9.85% (1 yr),
- Best Picks overall over 1 yr: APLS 91%, BBIO 85%, CBIO 88.6%, DNTH 3045, IMVT via ROIV, PTGX 119%, RYTM 27.5%, SLDB 98%, TXG up 176% TWST 55%, XENE 47%.
Our easiest trades and returns : CRMD, PSNL, VIGL (300% in 1 month).
Current Trading List : Not necessarily a buy list as a few stocks are special trades.
Data sources: company WEB sites, Yahoo Finance, FINVIZ. Improved layout coming soon.
| COMPANY | TICKER | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| P | P | % | Price | % | % | MCAP | RSI | P/cash | Price | % | % | % | MCAP | Price | % | % | % |
MCAP
|
Price | % | % | % | MCAP | ||||||||||||
| P 1/20/23 | Initial | 2/4/23 | 12/24/23 | YTD % | 4/8/24 | % | 2/28/26 | YTD | one year | $B | 2/28/26 | 1 month | 1 year | YTD | $B | 3/31/26 | 1 month | 1 year | YTD | $B | 4/30/26 | 1 month | 1 year | YTD | $B | RSI | |||||||||
| Absci Corp | ABSI | 1/24 | 3.61 | -3.22 | 2.27% | 542.84 | 43.97 | 2.77 | 2.74 | -9.27 | -19.88 | -21.49 | 0.41202 | 3.00 | 7.14 | 25.00 | -14.04 | 0.459 | 4.98 | 57.94 | 64.19 | 42.55 | 773.4M | 75.94 | |||||||||||
| Adaptive BiioTech | ADPT | 4.11 | 5 | 2.6 | -46.94 | 15.91 | -8.88 | -2.21 | 2.43 | 68.4 | 10.04 | 16.02 | -12.89 | 97.78 | -1.35 | 2.46 | 13.88 | -13.90 | 84.57 | -14.53 | 2.14 | 14.1 | -2.29 | 91.58 | -13.18 | 2.25 | 51 | ||||||||
| Apelis Pharm | APLS | 7/20/25 | 25.86 | 16.54 | 3.07 | 3.27 | 49.83 | 8.28 | 20.96 | -8.19 | -12.88 | -16.56 | 2.68 | 40.23 | 94.35 | 77.38 | 60.15 | 5.14 | 40.95 | 1.39 | 103.93 | 40.95 | 5.24 | 86.82 | |||||||||||
| Arcus Biosci | RCUS | NEW | 4/6/26 | 22.5 | 25.5 | 16.76 | 195.82 | 7.01 | 3.2 | 59.44 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Atrium Thera | RNA | 7/1/24 | 25 | 72.1 | 0.78 | -0.07 | 10.86 | 79/.76 | 5.75 | 72.82 | 0.11 | 149.21 | 0.96 | 2.29 | 13.37 | -10.33 | -9.36 | -9.36 | 228M | 12.77 | -5.2 | -13.42 | -13.42 | 218.6M | 73.2 | ||||||||||
| Axsome Ther | AXSM | 163.89 | -11.83 | 28.9 | -10.27 | 8.38 | 169.02 | 1.59 | 51.36 | -7.46 | 8.65 | 207.75 | 20.94 | 85.04 | 13.75 | 10.69 | 76.21 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Bridge BIO Pharm | BBIO | 11/30/24 | 27 | 78.24 | 4.65 | 0.57 | 15.08 | 71.47 | 21.39 | 66.48 | -15.03 | 101.39 | -13.09 | 12.88 | 74.26 | 13.37 | 124.89 | -2.92 | 14.40 | 71.11 | -4.49 | 85.18 | -7.01 | 13.92 | 39.29 | ||||||||||
| Caris LIFE SCI | CAI | 8/8/25 | 26.98 | -4.73 | -0.44 | 7.61 | 41.02 | 9.35 | 20.14 | -13.64 | -28.07 | -6.84 | 5.69 | 17.88 | -13.46 | -36.14 | -33.73 | 5.05 | 19 | -0.68 | -31.14 | -29.58 | 5.37 | 44.4 | |||||||||||
| CorMedix | CRMD | 3.9 | 5.31 | 41.22 | 12.16 | 14.29 | 3.36 | 0.958 | 37.12 | 13.65 | 7.13 | -12.73 | -25.65 | -38.69 | 0.56177 | 6.79 | -5.83 | 11.86 | -41.62 | 537M | 7.59 | 8.12 | -21.35 | -34.74 | 600M | 62 | |||||||||
| Cognitive Sci | COGT | 7 | 34.74 | -11.74 | -2.53 | 6.09 | 86.58 | 15.71 | 38.85 | 2.34 | 455 | 9.37 | 6.3 | 38.49 | -1.03 | 564.77 | 8.36 | 6.25 | 35.79 | 1.56 | 535.7 | 0.76 | 6.11 | 51.56 | |||||||||||
| Crinetics Pharm | CRNX | 42.12 | 18.38 | 46.73 | -1.46 | 0.24 | 4.43 | 62.67 | 4 | 41.1 | -16.72 | 20.39 | -5.45 | 3.9 | 36.32 | -10.72 | 18.62 | -21.98 | 3.80 | 38.78 | 6.04 | 15.69 | -16.69 | 4.06 | 58.33 | ||||||||||
| Crescent Biopharm | CBIO | 8/10/25 | 11 | 11.08 | -14.7 | -6.85 | .153m | 77.81 | 1.57 | 12.09 | 23.12 | -13.78 | 0.23 | 0.33303 | 18.37 | 64.02 | -8.65 | 54.89 | 506M | 22.37 | 15.79 | -14.88 | 88.62 | 616.7M | 46.7 | ||||||||||
| Crispr Thera | CRSP | 49.61 | 55.27 | 63.67 | 56.63 | 53.91 | -13.88 | 53.77 | -7.58 | 2.09 | 5.12 | 42.9 | 2.65 | 60.14 | 17.21 | 42.21 | 14.68 | 5.77 | 47.57 | -21.72 | 43.54 | -9.29 | 4.57 | 52.34 | 7.23 | 38.72 | -0.19 | 5.05 | 44.72 | ||||||
| Cryoport | CYRX | 21.75 | 25.24 | 16.09 | -7.26 | 16.38 | 5.75 | 9.56 | -3.24 | -1.44 | .478m | 57.56 | 1.14 | 8.42 | -12.47 | 75.42 | -12.29 | 0.42109 | 8.28 | 0.85 | 35.96 | -13.75 | 413M | 10.26 | 20.56 | 87.91 | 6.88 | 515M | 60.2 | ||||||
| Cytokinetics | CYTK | 31 | 65.34 | -21.74 | 61.73 | -7.23 | -2.45 | 7.55b | 65.72 | 8.63 | 62.22 | -4.51 | 45.07 | -2.08 | 7.61 | 65.91 | 7.29 | 75.76 | 3.73 | 8.12 | 63.97 | -3.96 | 49.04 | 0.68 | 7.95 | 51.75 | |||||||||
| Denali Thera | DNLI | 22 | 19.21 | -9 | 16.27 | -19.09 | -2.34 | 2.53b | 70.58 | 3.35 | 21.18 | -6.86 | 39.34 | 28.29 | 3.3 | 19.20 | -8.57 | 56.22 | 16.29 | 3.04 | 18.72 | -4.88 | 16.56 | 13.39 | 2.97 | 42.44 | |||||||||
| Dianthus Thera | DNTH | NEW | 11/13 | 38 | 39.68 | -11.25 | -4.44 | 1.70b | 65.44 | 11.99 | 55.19 | 3.78 | 181.29 | 33.92 | 2.37 | 83.92 | 51.86 | 398.63 | 103.64 | 4.34 | 87.8 | 3.83 | 304.61 | 113.06 | 4.78 | 58.19 | |||||||||
| Exelixis | EXEL | 22.25 | 23.75 | -1.21 | 43.58 | -1.78 | 0.11 | 11.68b | 52.86 | 13.61 | 44.06 | 2.92 | 14.29 | 0.52 | 11.45 | 42.89 | 4.53 | 17.86 | -2.14 | 11.14 | 44.46 | 0.95 | 14.32 | 1.44 | 11.29 | 49.5 | |||||||||
| EyePoint | EYPT | 7.13 | 3/6 | new | 17.48 | 4.55 | -3.21 | 1.45b | 66.39 | 6 | 17.56 | 32.13 | 206.99 | -3.89 | 1.45 | 12.89 | -29.72 | 155.25 | -29.45 | 1.08 | 13.2 | 1.46 | 85.13 | -27.75 | 1.11 | 48.41 | |||||||||
| Geron | GERN | RE-new | 4/6/26 | 1.54 | -7.23 | 7.69 | 16.67 | 987M | 50.61 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Guardent Health | GH | 11/6 | 25 | 101.74 | -6.25 | -0.55 | 13.11b | 73.72 | 24.04 | 93.9 | -18.28 | 130.49 | -8.07 | 12.32 | 92.37 | 0.15 | 117.49 | -9.57 | 12.12 | 87.08 | -4.47 | 78.19 | -14.74 | 11.54 | 51.27 | ||||||||||
| Ilumina | ILMN | 10/4/24 | 143 | 134.35 | 4.94 | 2.34 | 20.53b | 60.02 | 79.4 | 134.46 | -4.73 | 59.69 | 2.52 | 20.56 | 123.26 | 7.25 | 57.24 | -6.02 | 18.85 | 126.74 | 0.09 | 65.65 | -3.37 | 19.25 | 59.75 | ||||||||||
| Immunovant (ROIV) | IMVT | 8/13/25 | 15.89 | 25.91 | 13.09 | 1.69 | 5.25b | 55.8 | 4.82 | 27.73 | 6.33 | 50.38 | 9.09 | 5.64 | 24.84 | -10.49 | 63.42 | -2.28 | 5.06 | 27.15 | 8.15 | 70.72 | 6.79 | 5.52 | 52.38 | ||||||||||
| Natera | NTRA | 60 | 91.66 | 46.33 | 228.84 | -5.46 | -0.11 | 31.84b | 79.4 | 31.39 | 208.04 | -9.98 | 45.37 | -9.19 | 28.95 | 199.99 | -0.09 | 42.19 | -12.70 | 28.34 | 206.16 | 1.45 | 36.21 | -10.01 | 29.44 | 53.08 | |||||||||
| Pacific Biosci | PACB | 11.29 | 55.68 | 11.58 | 8.59 | 5 | 1.1 | -85 | 1.84 | -26.98 | -5.64 | .555m | 72.32 | 6.33 | 1.68 | -18.45 | 27.27 | -10.16 | 0.50452 | 1.32 | -18.52 | 16.81 | -29.41 | 399M | 1.59 | 17.78 | 43.24 | -14.97 | 493.7M | 52.96 | |||||
| Personalis | PSNL | NEW | 8/10/25 | 4.55 | 7.85 | -25.1 | -3.33 | .697m | 76.32 | 9.77 | 9.06 | -3.1 | 120.44 | 13.82 | 806.35 | 6.37 | -29.69 | 84.64 | -19.97 | 667M | 5.52 | -15.85 | 43.01 | -30.65 | 577.8M | 42.7 | |||||||||
| Protagonist Thera | PTGX | 12/12 | 41 | 87.18 | -0.17 | -0.18 | 5.45b | 56.22 | 6.99 | 92.08 | 10.87 | 139.17 | 5.43 | 5.88 | 105.40 | 11.84 | 124.83 | 20.68 | 6.73 | 98.97 | -4.53 | 119.98 | 13.32 | 6.36 | 50 | ||||||||||
| Quidel-Ortho | QDEL | 11/24/25 | 21 | 28.78 | 3.45 | -0.28 | 1.96b | 59.17 | 19 | 22.74 | -17.76 | -41.77 | -20.38 | 1.55 | 16.43 | -27.30 | -51.38 | -42.47 | 1.12 | 12.3 | -25.81 | -55.58 | -16.26 | 837.6M | 41.83 | ||||||||||
| Rhythm Pharma | RYTM | 4/9/25 | 52 | 105.01 | -0.65 | -1.97 | 7.01b | 56.58 | 17.23 | 92.73 | -14.92 | 76.97 | -13.37 | 6.19 | 86.97 | -8.39 | 73.94 | -18.75 | 5.94 | 81.36 | -7.67 | 27.52 | -23.99 | 5.56 | 38.69 | ||||||||||
| Solid Biosci | SLDB | 3/6/25 | 5.45 | -7.94 | -4.89 | .424m | 58 | 3.2 | 6.21 | -3.42 | 21.29 | 10.11 | 0.48382 | 7.20 | 16.13 | 108.70 | 27.66 | 708M | 7.26 | -1.63 | 98.9 | 28.72 | 714.5M | 41.94 | |||||||||||
| Supernus | SUPN | 40.3 | 12.3 | 41.61 | 29.23 | -18.05 | 31 | 3.9 | 49.47 | 9.69 | -0.46 | 2.84b | 51 | 9.43 | 54.73 | 12.2 | 72.43 | 10.12 | 3.14 | 51.69 | -6.17 | 63.16 | 4.00 | 2.98 | 48 | 6.69 | 47.92 | -3.42 | 2.76 | 43.69 | |||||
| Tempest AI | TEM | 7/10/24 | 52 | 62.36 | -18.3 | 3.64 | 11.09b | 51 | 18 | 53.25 | -9.05 | 4.56 | -9.82 | 9.52 | 45.22 | -15.18 | -4.24 | -23.42 | 8.08 | 55.48 | 17.97 | 7 | -6.05 | 9.95 | 57.72 | ||||||||||
| Twist Biosci | TWST | 18 | 3.76 | 34.03 | 31.54 | -14.53 | 32.39 | -1.28 | 2.08 | 1.98b | 56.74 | 8.34 | 46.92 | 0.23 | 26.43 | 47.92 | 2.88 | 47.52 | 3.55 | 22.03 | 49.81 | 2.91 | 58.45 | 17.99 | 55 | 84.27 | 3.58 | 53.44 | |||||||
| Vericel | VCEL | 31 | 34.75 | 31.93 | 46.05 | 29.32 | 35.61 | -3.21 | -1.59 | 1.80b | 52.39 | 15 | 35.68 | -3.41 | -27.93 | -0.92 | 1.8 | 32.17 | -9.02 | -25.34 | -10.66 | 1.64 | 34.73 | 6.66 | -8.41 | -3.55 | 1.77 | 56.11 | |||||||
| Veracyte | VCYT | 42.39 | -10.69 | 0.59 | 3.35b | 68.6 | 10.29 | 36.59 | -4.11 | 9.03 | -13.09 | 2.89 | 32.21 | -10.55 | 8.96 | -23.49 | 2.56 | 32.92 | 1.6 | 10.8 | -21.81 | 2.63 | 52.76 | ||||||||||||
| Wave | WVE | 15.95 | 109.32 | -6.29 | 2.91b | 54 | 6.53 | 13.93 | 3.72 | 38.61 | -18.06 | 2.55 | 7.25 | -47.65 | -6.33 | -57.35 | 1.36 | 7.06 | 3.37 | -11.08 | -58.47 | 1.36 | 41.59 | ||||||||||||
| Xencor | XNCR | 9 | 14.92 | -17.75 | 2.48 | 1.07b | 69.79 | 2.63 | 12.77 | 5.45 | -11.69 | -16.59 | 0.96353 | 12.06 | -1.95 | 24.46 | -21.23 | 884M | 11.93 | -4.79 | 9.85 | -22.08 | 884.3M | 57.32 | |||||||||||
| Xenon | XENE | 44.5 | 43.23 | 4.29 | 20.79 | -3.55 | 3.34 | 58.15 | 36.66 | 89.78 | 29.74 | 5.36 | 56.04 | -1.15 | 47.13 | 25.03 | 5.42 | 59.97 | |||||||||||||||||
| ArkGenomics | ARKG | 35.28 | 32.81 | 16.22 | 23.18 | -29.35 | 29.18 | -8.53 | -0.17 | n/a | 64.44 | 29.98 | -2.09 | 29.56 | 3.49 | n/a | 26.42 | -11.67 | 30.79 | -8.80 | n/a | 29.87 | 10.26 | n/a | 3.11 | n/a | 59.29 | ||||||||
| iShares BIO | IBB | 133.77 | -1.89 | 135.21 | -2.48 | 169 | -1.81 | -0.38 | n-a | 76.24 | 175.37 | 0.71 | 30.64 | 3.91 | 11.15 | 168.85 | -2.92 | 35.69 | 0.05 | 10.74 | 168.69 | -0.85 | 35.08 | 0.05 | 10.73 | 48.24 | |||||||||
| SPDR Biotech | XBI | 90.39 | 87.62 | 5.57 | 83.49 | -6.51 | 121.52 | -1.4 | -0.76 | na | 78.24 | 127.37 | 0.02 | 48.8 | 4.46 | 5.79 | 127.73 | 0.93 | 63.42 | 4.76 | 5.81 | 131.33 | 2.16 | 59.19 | 7.71 | 5.97 | 53.46 | ||||||||