UPDATE 4/15/25: Nice Rally in SMID BiOTECH on Monday then faded. UPDATE tomorrow with UNH
- Congress needs to do their job and prioritize cancer research funding especially for clinical trials.
Update-3 4/13...We will summarize market performance for healthcare and biotech on our next update: XLV was up %1.18% the past week, the XBI up 0.91% and the IBB was flat.
- YTD Healthcare is up about 6.5% YTD whereas Technology is down 11% YTD.
But the bigger issue is not only how NIH cutbacks affect funding of Biomedical Research at Universities and companies but those individuals currently enrolled in clinical trials. Below we have reading materials on NIH cutbacks. More updates are coming later this week:
- WHERE the NIH cutbacks are hitting hardest.
- Major impact on cancer research and ongoing trials. $8 B plus 1220 employee many of which are key administrators .
- Chaos of NIH cutbacks affecting career in science.
- Here is one resource for reporting results of clinical trials that could be slowed
- CHINA could gain on US lead in life science research.
- What RFK Jr. means for biotech stocks.
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UPDATE-2 11:56a TRUMP Offers 90 DAY REPRIEVE on tariffs and STOCKS SURGE.
- NASDAQ up almost 10%, S&P 500 up 8%.
- SENTIMENT shift based on tariff relief,
- Gold, silver copper shine.
- Review sector shift to overweight technology, reduce pharmaceuticals due to tariffs coming,SMID biotechs green screen day-IBB and XBI strong up about 5%
- LOTS of volatility ahead but off the brink.
- FOCUS on CHINA going forward.
- TEN Year TSY at 4.4% after a good auction–tilted toward inflation slower growth.
Update-1a added to TECH stocks, reducing large cap biopharma . Too volatile for trading.
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Update -1 4/8 Tariff chaos solution…Trump should call a truce and say …NO TARIFFS.
See WSJ article,,,
A Win-Win Exit Strategy for Trump on Tariffs
Offer nations truly reciprocal free trade: zero-barriers, zero-subsidies.
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It’s a GoodTime to Trade Biotech Stocks but it’s risky business
- Large cap healthcare stocks have outperformed other sectors during the 2025 Tariff induced sell-off but they still have risks as one can see by Friday’s 5% decline.
- We see a short term trading opportunity for SMID Life Science stocks but it is difficult with technical momentum gone to a risk-off situation,
- The paradox is that speculative small caps are less risky because they are not connected to the MACRO and are attractive on their own merits because of innovation.
Maybe your portfolio has been crushed and you have too many stocks and maybe you are way down year to date. You know there are big concerns about funding basic life science and medical research because of cutbacks at NIH and FDA. But these political issues are lntermediate term 12-18 months and the recent bloodbath in biotech offers an interesting window for trading if you are experienced and can tolerate the risk. Maybe it’s also a crazy idea to even mess with small cap stocks. But that’s the market. Here are three steps to consider before jumping into new SMID cap biotech trades.
Step One: Review recent articles we have published as well as analyst reports and compare the performance to actual YTD. If you were overweight Large Cap biopharma stocks you did better than most market indices.
Step Two: Decide how much risk capital you want in your portfolio and whether you need rebalancing of large cap healthcare and biopharma stocks.
Step Three: Once you have decided to allocate say 5-10% of your portfolio to higher reward SMID cap biotech stocks buy a little XBI an ETF we recommend for tracking bullish momentum in biotech stocks. It is currently at one year low as we would expect after the pummeling of last week. If you already have positions in SMID cap biotech review their charts, RSI, analyst take and cash positions. See our list.
Most of our Life Science portfolio is in Large Cap Biopharma and medtech. But I must say the tumbling of large cap defensive healthcare and energy stocks was a little scary because it says that people are selling highly liquid stocks that pay dividends.
We currently own small positions in the following SMID cap life science stocks from our trading list and will comment on them after what promises to be a volatile week. Most are off their 2024 highs but among here ones we own that are still in the money although way down YTD: ADPT, CPRX, CRMD, GH, PTGX ,RZLT, SUPN, VCYT. Here is a second list that looks like good trades but we do not own; BBIO,EXEL,TWST, VCEL.
As of 10:30a 4/7/25 the XBI was at he $72 handle down about 19% YTD.
