Clinical Diagnostics and Tools: Big Winners Are In Genomics and Personalized Medicine
- Slower growth in routine clinical diagnostics, tools are favored.
- Hologic has a unique business model for women’s health and diagnostics.
- Gene sequencing is important for future clinical applications and biopharma R&D.
We haven’t updated our Clinical Diagnostics and Tools Portfolio since the severe market correction in 2015/2016. We did keep three stocks on our focus list: Foundation Medicine (FMI), Hologic (HOLX) and Illumina (ILMN). All are up considerably both YTD and since 12/31/16. But only Hologic is an FDA cleared clinical diagnostic product Company.
- Foundation Medicine (FMI) is up 261% YTD at $64 today.
- Hologic, Inc (HOLX) is up 8.4% YTD at $3.49 today.
- Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) is up 67% YTD at $214.74 today.
What happened with our Rayno Dx and Tools Portfolio if you held these stocks from December 2016? What can be learned from this sector?
- The biggest winners were in personalized medicine and NexGen sequencing (NGS): FMI ILMN.
- M&A-two companies were acquired with good returns:Alere and Cepheid.
- Top line growth is critical to stock performance: NEOG at 14% annualized.
- The Clinical Diagnostic Market is in a slow growth mode and dependent on M&A. However molecular and companion diagnostics are growing.
- Flat stocks over two years because of slower growth: ABAX LMNX
- Still looking for new business models and product: GNMK NSTG VIVO
- Large cap players with biopharma R&D tools are winners: TMO
Note: Quidel (QDEL) was involved in a merger with Alere “spin-off” assets.
Old Model from 2016 With Updated Performance
|12/20/16||Current||$Price||5 Yr||%Perf||12/19/17||% YTD|
|Dx and Tools||Symbol||Trend||12/16||High||YTD 2016||P $||12/19|
We will update the chart with financial metrics and after the J.P.Morgan Healthcare Conference and come up with an industry update and new models.
Disclosure long HOLX PACB