It’s Been a Tough Month for Healthcare Stocks

It’s Been a Tough Month for Healthcare Stocks but Momentum Favors Small Cap Biotechs.

• Large cap Biopharmaceutical stocks sold off because of competition and lower revenue growth.
• MedTech sector show less volatility and more growth potential for 2025.
• SMID caps show good trading prospects because of new products, pipeline and M&A.

It’s been a very difficult month for the healthcare sector not only because of disappointing Company news but also disruption  caused by the election and future policy issues with an incoming TRUMP administration. We covered some these issues on previous posts but we can say in general that I cant remember a period where so many issues have arisen with specific large cap companies. We wrote about some of the fallout on November 3 and recommended a tighter portfolio review with some rebalancing.

In the meantime the overall market performance has been broadening out with general indices like the S&P 500 or even the DOW industrial and cyclical stocks. All major indices have hit new highs last week up about 25% YTD, almost twice as good as typical diversified heathcare portfolio for an active fund for example the PRHSX up 10% YTD.  Investors have moved away from MAG 7 up 5.87% MTD and technology stocks as well: XLK up 25% YTD . So given all the usual changes we expect as the 2024 Calendar turns we have a NEW ADMINISTRATION with potential for unprecedented news and potential for greater volatility.

Momentum in the market is expected to continue through year-end.  However the sectors with the strongest momentum are in order: technology, financials and consumer defensive and industrial all stronger than healthcare. Looking at actual sector performance through  the  SPDR ETFs  it looks something like this: Communication services up 27.78%, Financials up 25.8%, Industrials up 18.61%, Technology up 16.1% and Healthcare 8.98%.

We provided an update of our SMID cap trading portfolio recently and here are some notable winners: ADPT, BBIO, CPRX, CRMD, EXEL, NTRA, SUPN, TEM, TWST, VCEL.VCYT.

AS of the 12/2 opening at 10a EST biotech stocks are mixed to down with the XBI at the $98 level a stalled rally. MAG 7  stocks are up: AAPL, META, NVDA, TSLA etc.

Here are some takeaways from November 2024 stock performance after Q3 earnings;

1. Only three of our large cap biopharma picks “avoided” the recent correction: ABBV up 18% YTD, LLY up 36% YTD, VRTX up 15% YTD. But all stiil took a hit.
2. Two lagging large caps showed gains for the month : BMY up 12.5% and GILD up 4.3%.
3. Two big large cap losers for the month: LLY and REGN had competitive and revenue issues  See November  reports
4. Big gainers for the month in healthcare:  UNH up 7.95% and XBI up 11.57%.
5. We favor SMID biotechs because of M&A and general trends in the market favoring small cap growth (IWM,IGR).
6. MedTech and devices show strength after Q3 earnings: FSMEX up 4.5% for November and 15.9% YTD; the IHI is up 3.77% for November and 13.23% YTD.
7. Top ETFs trending up are the IHI and the XBI, although technically IBB is also in an uptrend.