Update-4 3/19..2:40p EDT..Stealth rally pre-FED day, call it an AI rally as all major indices are up. 10 year at 4.295%.If TSY yields stays down then small caps can follow: SMID Biotechs UP today are :CRBU, CBRX, CRMD,CYRX, PACB, SUPN etc with some buying in XBI at $94 level shifts model to RISK on for small cap biotech. Healthcare update later today.
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Update -3 3/17…Risk off continues on, small cap Life Science trades. Rotation this week favors Energy (up 3.74%) and Materials (up 1.51%), with S&P 500 and DOW flattish. Notice weakness in all small cap ETFs (IWM) and (IJR) as well as speculative genomics (ARKG) down 13% YTD. If we want to hold bull market in tares we should hold current levels of XBI or worse $92.50. Even the QQQs have lost momentum down 0.14% over past month.
- Winners were rare like Geron (GERN) up 49.33 % for the week; Geron got FDA backing for transfusion dependent anemia.
- Supernus (SUPN) was up 6.15% for the week and 13,96%YTD. Need to look deeper into Neuroscience plays like: ABBV, GEHC and SUPN.
- The IBB is down 0.44% for the month and flat YTD.
- With volatility higher and trend down the safest play would be XLV up 6.58% YTD, down 0.73% for the week.
- Many momentum stocks took a big hit e.g. CRBU.
- Sequencing: We sold Illumina (ILMN) and PacBIo (PACB) is near a new low so maybe an upside trade.
Here is updated Life science trade list, notice the trend continues down tracking the XBI down 4.28% for the week, but still up 6.07% YTD.
No positions in QDEL, RXRX, ROIV,
| P 1/20/23 | % Perf | 2/4/23 | 12/24/23 | Perf % | ||||||||
| Company | Ticker | $ | P | % week | P | 4 wks | YTD % | 3/16/2024 | YTD | trend | ||
| P | % | |||||||||||
| Acumen Therap | ABOS | 5.29 | 3.57 | 51.27 | -33.89 | 4.18 | 8.85 | – | ||||
| Catalyst Pharma | CPRX | NEW | 16.1 | 19.62 | 16.58 | 19.62 | -10.86 | 16.07 | -4.4 | u | ||
| Caribou Biosci | CRBU | NEW | 6.29 | 20.55 | 6.17 | 8.44 | -0.175 | 5.37 | -6.28 | d | ||
| CorMedix | CRMD | NEW | 3.9 | 3.81 | 1.33 | u | ||||||
| CRSPR Therap | CRSP | 49.61 | -25 | 55.27 | 4.72 | 63.67 | -9.68 | 56.63 | 72.95 | 16.53 | – | |
| Cryoport | CYRX | 21.75 | -42.34 | 25.24 | 9.41 | 16.09 | 14.76 | -7.26 | 15.18 | -2 | – | |
| Denali | DNLI | NEW | 2/27 | 22 | 20.13 | -6.2 | – | |||||
| Exelixis | EXEL | NEW | 3/4 | 22.25 | 22.98 | -4.21 | u | |||||
| Evolent Health | EVH | 30.83 | 13.74 | 31.96 | 2.21 | 32.08 | 8.56 | 14.25 | 32.65 | -1.15 | – | |
| Geron | GERN | 3.19 | 9.24 | 3.22 | 3.59 | 2.29 | 17.44 | -5.37 | 3.36 | 59.24 | u | |
| Hologic | HOLX | 79.66 | 22.41 | 84.68 | 2.28 | 71.04 | -1.58 | -5.04 | 75.91 | 6.24 | – | |
| Illumina | ILMN | NEW | 141 | 127.73 | -8.27 | out | ||||||
| Immatics | IMTX | 9.3 | 9.9 | 20.88 | 13.66 | 12.01 | 14.06 | – | ||||
| Pacific Biosci | PACB | 11.29 | 55.68 | 11.58 | -1.7 | 8.59 | 28.4 | 5 | 3.79 | -61.37 | d | |
| Quidel/Ortho | QDEL | 88.13 | -11.56 | 89.7 | 3.93 | 73.98 | 7.19 | -13.65 | 48.41 | -34.31 | out | |
| Recursion Pharm | RXRX | NEW | 10.75 | 11.22 | 13.79 | d | ||||||
| Roivant | ROIV | NEW | 11.4 | 10.14 | -9.71 | d | ||||||
| Supernus | SUPN | 40.3 | 12.3 | 41.61 | 2.29 | 29.23 | 6.04 | -18.05 | 32.98 | 13.96 | u | |
| Twist Biosci | TWST | 12/2 | 18 | 3.76 | 54.39 | 34.03 | 33.64 | -8.74 | d | |||
| 10x Genomics | TXG | 12/2 | 47.84 | 56.58 | 30.52 | 55.27 | 36.33 | -35 | d | |||
| Vericel | VCEL | 31 | 34.75 | -2.09 | 31.93 | 44.26 | 24.29 | – | ||||
| Veracyte | VCYT | 24.89 | 39.43 | 26.67 | 2.46 | 28.27 | 8.23 | 19.13 | 21.1 | -23.3 | d | |
| SPDR Biotech | XBI | 86.99 | 14.75 | 90.39 | 1.12 | 87.62 | 20.36 | 5.57 | 94.71 | 6.07 | ||
| P 2/18 | %YTD | |||||||||||
| wildcard | ||||||||||||
| ArkGenomics | ARKG | 35.28 | 32.81 | 18.88 | 16.22 | 28.44 | -13.32 | trde | ||||
| longs | ||||||||||||
| Becton-Dickinson | BDX | old pick | add? | 236.71 | -2.92 | long | ||||||
| Cerevel | CERE | acquired | ABBV | 42.7 | – | out | ||||||
| Cytokinetics | CYTK | in play | missed | 65.19 | -21.92 | out | ||||||
| 12/24/23 | ||||||||||||
| iShares CoreS&P | IJR | 108.34 | 12.96 | 14.48 | 106.7 | -2.01 | d | |||||
| iShares Russell | IWM | 201.48 | 13.11 | 15.55 | 202.41 | 0.85 | – | |||||
| iShares BIO | IBB | 133.77 | 12.68 | -1.89 | 135.92 | – | d | |||||
| NASDAQ-100 | QQQ | 408.38 | 4.7 | 53.36 | 433.92 | 5.96 | – | |||||
| HealthcareSPDR | XLV | 135.02 | 3.52 | – | 145.36 | 6.58 | – | |||||
| T.RowePrice | PRHSX | 86.84 | 3.67 | -3.32 | 93.17 | 6 | – | |||||
| iShares MED Dev | IHI | 53.65 | 7.34 | 2.05 | 57.1 | 5.8 | – | |||||
Update-2 3/15 11a EDT…XBI is now down over 8pts since last week from $102 level to $94.8 today quite a sell-off. So look for some stabilization today if not- risk down to $92. BIG winner today is GERN up 93% to $3.38 on FDA Oncologic Advisory Committee meeting in favor of clinical benefit. for Imetelstat a first in class telomerese inhibitor. More updates coming today.
Update-1 MARCH !2…..An unexpected rally today given a 0.4% increase in the CPI; the S&P 500 was up 1.12% and the NAZ was up 1.54%, DOW up 0.6%. Technology stocks were on the run again with backing from the AI theme: MSFT,NVDA,META and as Oracle (ORCL) blew away earnings the stock surged 11.75%. Large cap biopharma stocks were strong with Eli Lilly ( LLY ) leading the way up 2.8% followed by JNJ and ABBV. MEDtech winners were BSX, ABT and SYK with the IHI up a tad near the top at $58.39. We bought a little Natera (NTRA) yesterday at $90. Natera is a novel molecular diagnostic company focused on high-end tests for genetic conditions, oncology and transplantation to help with personalized healthcare decisions.
Small caps continue to lag with the IWM and IJR stuck at same levels for a week.But the Russell Value 1000 looks much better (IWD) up almost 6% YTD. And as we said on Friday it’s risk off for small cap biotech with the bellwether XBI off its 100+ highs down to the $96 level off 3.28% for the week.
XBI chart
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SMID Life Science Trades-Harder To Pick Winners as Volatility Rules
- Biotech is in a bull market aș measured by 2023 trends with a double testing of lows on 11/23.
- Large cap biopharma stocks are strong needed for deal making that continues to support SMID cap biotech financing and markets.
- It’s a momentum market creating more volatility with risk of “over-trading”.
We developed this list of small cap “Trades” about a year ago for tracking of the emerging bull market in biotech. Although overall results were profitable it proved to require more frequent trading and portfolio rebalancing than we expected. Some trades were losers from the beginning in 2/23 like QDEL, a bubble stock of the pandemic times. But a buy and hold of the ETF (XBI) up 21.81% over one year and Fund (PRHSX) up 10% are in the money and tracking the bull market. Other SMID picks that outperformed over one year were: CRSP up 64.66%, CRBU up 26.41%, IMTX u 51.29%, and VCEL up 48.29%. We siill like HOLX and EVH for the long term even though they underperformed in 2023. In general one should look at performance since 11/23 as the low point of the current bull market with double testing of lows twice in 6/22 and 11/23.
Here is our year-end 2023 take on SMID cap performance. Meanwhile the XLV Healthcare ETF is up 15.89% over one year, up 10.89% over 6 months running concurrently with the biotech bull market since November.
Within the healthcare sector MedTech stocks are beginning to outperform with the IHI up 8.62% YTD and13.17 % over one year.
Time to think about your strategy : Are you a Trader or Investor?
Meanwhile bitcoin continues to roll up over 4% to 71,000 level. Look for sector rotation this week.
LONG: XBI ,PRHSX: long all stocks below unless noted. Not in RXRX, ROIV.
| Company | Ticker | $ | P | % week | P | 4 wks | YTD % | 3/9/2024 | YTD | short term trend | ||
| P | % | |||||||||||
| Acumen Therap | ABOS | 5.29 | 3.57 | 51.27 | -33.89 | 4.37 | 13.8 | u | ||||
| Catalyst Pharma | CPRX | NEW | 16.1 | 19.62 | 16.58 | 19.62 | -10.86 | 16.25 | -3.33 | u | ||
| Caribou Biosci | CRBU | NEW | 6.29 | 20.55 | 6.17 | 8.44 | -0.175 | 7.42 | 29.49 | u | ||
| CorMedix | CRMD | NEW | 3.9 | 3.68 | -2.13 | – | ||||||
| CRSPR Therap | CRSP | 49.61 | -25 | 55.27 | 4.72 | 63.67 | -9.68 | 56.63 | 78.92 | 26.07 | – | |
| Cryoport | CYRX | 21.75 | -42.34 | 25.24 | 9.41 | 16.09 | 14.76 | -7.26 | 16.85 | 8.78 | u | |
| Denali | DNLI | NEW | 2/27 | 22 | 20.95 | (2,47) | – | |||||
| Exelixis | EXEL | NEW | 3/4 | 22.25 | 22.21 | -7.42 | – | |||||
| Evolent Health | EVH | 30.83 | 13.74 | 31.96 | 2.21 | 32.08 | 8.56 | 14.25 | 34.32 | 3.91 | u H | |
| Geron | GERN | 3.19 | 9.24 | 3.22 | 3.59 | 2.29 | 17.44 | -5.37 | 2.25 | 6.64 | – | |
| Hologic | HOLX | 79.66 | 22.41 | 84.68 | 2.28 | 71.04 | -1.58 | -5.04 | 77.05 | 7.84 | u H | |
| Illumina | ILMN | NEW | 141 | 135.43 | -2.74 | out, trade | ||||||
| Immatics | IMTX | 9.3 | 9.9 | 20.88 | 13.66 | 12.27 | 16.52 | u | ||||
| Pacific Biosci | PACB | 11.29 | 55.68 | 11.58 | -1.7 | 8.59 | 28.4 | 5 | 4.43 | -54.84 | d | |
| Quidel/Ortho | QDEL | 88.13 | -11.56 | 89.7 | 3.93 | 73.98 | 7.19 | -13.65 | 46.26 | -37.23 | out | |
| Recursion Pharm | RXRX | NEW | 10.75 | 11.19 | 13.48 | d | ||||||
| Roivant | ROIV | NEW | 11.4 | 10.68 | -4.9 | d | ||||||
| Supernus | SUPN | 40.3 | 12.3 | 41.61 | 2.29 | 29.23 | 6.04 | -18.05 | 31.07 | 7.36 | u | |
| Twist Biosci | TWST | 12/2 | 18 | 3.76 | 54.39 | 34.03 | 37.57 | 1.93 | – | |||
| 10x Genomics | TXG | 12/2 | 47.84 | 56.58 | 30.52 | 55.27 | 48.45 | -28.86 | d | |||
| Vericel | VCEL | 31 | 34.75 | -2.09 | 31.93 | 49.2 | d | u | ||||
| Veracyte | VCYT | 24.89 | 39.43 | 26.67 | 2.46 | 28.27 | 8.23 | 19.13 | 22.72 | -17.41 | d | |
| SPDR Biotech | XBI | 86.99 | 14.75 | 90.39 | 1.12 | 87.62 | 20.36 | 5.57 | 98.95 | 4.32 | u | |
| P 2/18 | %YTD | |||||||||||
| wildcard | ||||||||||||
| ArkGenomics | ARKG | 35.28 | 32.81 | 18.88 | 16.22 | 30.37 | -2.44 | trde | ||||
| longs | ||||||||||||
| Becton-Dickinson | BDX | old pick | add? | 236.27 | -1.61 | H | ||||||
| Cerevel | CERE | acquired | ABBV | 42.7 | sold | |||||||
| Cytokinetics | CYTK | in play | missed | 85.6 | out | |||||||
| 12/24/23 | ||||||||||||
| iShares CoreS&P | IJR | 108.34 | 12.96 | 14.48 | 108.01 | – | – | |||||
| iShares Russell | IWM | 201.48 | 13.11 | 15.55 | 201.66 | 3.05 | – | |||||
| iShares BIO | IBB | 133.77 | 12.68 | -1.89 | 138.65 | 2.06 | ||||||
| NASDAQ-100 | QQQ | 408.38 | 4.7 | 53.36 | 439.02 | 7.02 | u | |||||
| HealthcareSPDR | XLV | 135.02 | 3.52 | – | 146.43 | 7.37 | u | |||||
| T.RowePrice | PRHSX | 86.84 | 3.67 | -3.32 | 94.35 | 7.34 | u H | |||||
| iShares MED Dev | IHI | 53.65 | 7.34 | 2.05 | 58.62 | 8.62 | u | |||||