Update-1 2/23/24. You know the story by now it’s all about AI and NVDA. As my friend said in the mid -90s “there is no end to chips Rod”.
Overall one of the best weeks for the market but of course led by technology stocks. The equal weight small cap XBI hit a new 1 yr high at the $95 level but lacked Momentum. Large cap biopharma were all at new highs as well as strength in many of our other picks like EVH and GEHC. Our top fund pick PRHSX is at a one year high. Small caps are underperforming but I will review our trading list tomorrow.
- Overall there was little discernible momentum in small cap biotechs although the XBI held near its one year highs.
====
Healthcare Stocks Are Looking Better
- This is a momentum market so watch SMID biotechs for consistent rallies.
- Large cap biopharmacuiticals remain a core holding for growth and value despite political cross-currents on drug pricing.
- Assuming a 5-10% correction healthcare may be less volatile than the S&P or Tech sector.
Healthcare stocks are looking better with the XLV up 44 pts about 20%% off the November lows at $122.59. Of course if you’ve been trading tech stocks you barely noticed it because of the momentum in chip and software stocks. For example led by the AI theme chip stocks have been on a rampage over the past 6 months with Applied Materials (AMAT) up 44.35%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). up 62.21%, and NVDIA (NVDA) up 66.98%. And presumably unlike the tech stock run of 1999, this momentum has been driven by projected revenue growth as tech behemoths shift to the AI paradigm. At the top down Indices level the QQQ is up 18.76 % over 6 months and 41.96% over one year.
In contrast the health care and biotech sector performed as follows:
IBB up 7.57% over 6 mos yet only 2.76% in one year.
XBI up 19.3% over 6 mos and 9.89 % in one year. Bullish at breakthrough cusp.
IHI up 8.54% over 6 mos and 6.33% in one year.
XLV up 8.23% over 6 mos and 11.31% in one year.
PRHSX our Favorite Fund is up 7% YTD,
So clearly the healthcare is trending better led by large cap biopharmaceuticals with new blockbuster products and a revival in M&A. The XLV previously outperformed because of United Health (UNH) which tends to have consistent performance due to demographics and stable growth.. Lately however the performance of the XLV has improved because of large cap biopharma and medtech.
In recent posts we covered healthcare funds, ETFs and Large Cap Biopharmaceuticals but if the Biotech Sector can recover it will require SMID stocks to regain momentm of 2022 highs. While this is hard to project or rationalize, it looks poised for a breakthrough at least for traders. But volatility can mask trends.
We can look at SMID biotech stocks broadly per the following subsectors: cellular therapy, diagnostics and tools, gene therapy, genomics and sequencing and immuno-oncology. And here is an updated list of SMID stocks and ETFs to watch or trade. We will update this list periodically with breaking news. We will focus in the coming weeks on genomics and gene therapy as well as some of the newer picks.
Update on ABBV: The FTC is still lurking.
Focus Stocks: CRBU, CRSPR, ILMN, ROIV, RXRX, TWST, TXG, VCEL.
| P 1/20/23 | % Perf | 2/4/23 | 12/24/23 | Perf % | ||||||||
| Company | Ticker | $ | P | % week | P | 4 wks | YTD % | 2/18/2024 | YTD | P 2/24 | ||
| P | % | |||||||||||
| Acumen Therap | ABOS | 5.29 | 3.57 | 51.27 | -33.89 | 3.28 | -14.58 | 3.56 | ||||
| Catalyst Pharma | CPRX | 16.1 | 19.62 | 16.58 | 19.62 | -10.86 | 14 |
-16.72
|
14.04 | |||
| Caribou Biosci | CRBU | NEW | 6.29 | 20.55 | 6.17 | 8.44 | -0.175 | 6.91 | 20.5 | 6.94 | ||
| CorMedix | CRMD | NEW | 3.9 | 3.3 | -11.97 | 3.28 | ||||||
| CRSPR Therap | CRSP | 49.61 | -25 | 55.27 | 4.72 | 63.67 | -9.68 | 56.63 | 82.22 | 31.34 | 83.99 | |
| Cryoport | CYRX | 21.75 | -42.34 | 25.24 | 9.41 | 16.09 | 14.76 | -7.26 | 15.69 | 1.29 | 15.82 | |
| Evolent Health | EVH | 30.83 | 13.74 | 31.96 | 2.21 | 32.08 | 8.56 | 14.25 | 30.95 | -6.3 | 34.07 | |
| Geron | GERN | 3.19 | 9.24 | 3.22 | 3.59 | 2.29 | 17.44 | -5.37 | 2.01 | -4.74 | 1.96 | |
| Hologic | HOLX | 79.66 | 22.41 | 84.68 | 2.28 | 71.04 | -1.58 | -5.04 | 73.79 | 3.29 | 76.15 | |
| Illumina | ILMN | NEW | 141 | 143.41 | 2.99 | 133 | ||||||
| Immatics | IMTX | 9.3 | 9.9 | 20.88 | 13.66 | 11.67 | 10.83 | 12.22 | ||||
| Pacific Biosci | PACB | 11.29 | 55.68 | 11.58 | -1.7 | 8.59 | 28.4 | 5 | 5.74 | -28.62 | 5.11 | |
| Quidel/Ortho | QDEL | 88.13 | -11.56 | 89.7 | 3.93 | 73.98 | 7.19 | -13.65 | 41.76 | -43.34 | 46.89 | |
| Recursion Pharm | RXRX | NEW | 10.75 | 13.15 | 33.37 | 13.37 | ||||||
| Roivant | ROIV | NEW | 11.4 | 11.59 | 3.21 | 11.60 | ||||||
| Supernus | SUPN | 40.3 | 12.3 | 41.61 | 2.29 | 29.23 | 6.04 | -18.05 | 28.42 | 2.95 | 29.06 | |
| Twist Biosci | TWST | 12/2 | 18 | 3.76 | 54.39 | 34.03 | 40.89 | 10.93 | 38.20 | |||
| 10x Genomics | TXG | 12/2 | 47.84 | 56.58 | 30.52 | 55.27 | 48.45 | -13.42 | 44.98 | |||
| Vericel | VCEL | 31 | 34.75 | -2.09 | 31.93 | 49.2 | 38.16 | 47.32 | ||||
| Veracyte | VCYT | 24.89 | 39.43 | 26.67 | 2.46 | 28.27 | 8.23 | 19.13 | 24.74 | -10 | 22.18 | |
| SPDR Biotech | XBI | 86.99 | 14.75 | 90.39 | 1.12 | 87.62 | 20.36 | 5.57 | 93.15 | 4.32 | 94..75 | |
| P 2/18 | %YTD | |||||||||||
| wildcard | ||||||||||||
| ArkGenomics | ARKG | NEW | 35.28 | 32.81 | 18.88 | 16.22 | 31.4 | -4.3 | 30.21 | |||
| longs | ||||||||||||
| Becton-Dickinson | BDX | old pick | add? | 236.27 | -1.26 | long | ||||||
| Cerevel | CERE | acquired | ABBV | 42.7 | sold | |||||||
| Cytokinetics | CYTK | in play | missed | 85.6 | out | |||||||
| Illumina | ILMN | redo | 138.04 | in | ||||||||
| 12/24/23 | ||||||||||||
| iShares CoreS&P | IJR | 108.34 | 12.96 | 14.48 | 107.38 | -0.8 | ||||||
| iShares Russell | IWM | 201.48 | 13.11 | 15.55 | 201.66 | -0.47 | ||||||
| iShares BIO | IBB | 133.77 | 12.68 | -1.89 | 135.73 | – | ||||||
| NASDAQ-100 | QQQ | 408.38 | 4.7 | 53.36 | 430.57 | 5.14 | u | |||||
| HealthcareSPDR | XLV | 135.02 | 3.52 | – | 145.62 | 6.78 | u | |||||
| T.RowePrice | PRHSX | 86.84 | 3.67 | -3.32 | 94.19 | 7.16 | u | |||||
| iShares MED Dev | IHI | 53.65 | 7.34 | 2.05 | 56.81 | 5,26 | u |