Update-5 SMIDS are running today. Added NVAX to list. ADPT RXRX XBI are movers.
UPDATE-4…AT close…XBI tried to rally back to $90 but closed at $88+. XBI drives SMID biotechs and as you can see it’s a red screen day if you are tracking our spec trading list below. BUT the bull market is intact with biotech lagging a bit. From spec biotech list: CPRX up 1.85%,NTRA is up 5%, VCYT up 3.59%.
STOCK of the day is NOVAVAX (NVAX) up almost 100% on a broad $1.2B Sanofi deal.
Large caps are holding up post earnings. AI is still strong and industrials are outperforming the S&P.
UPDATE 3,,,5/9 …2:30P EDT. …Market broadly up and DOW leads. SMID Biotech trades winners: ABOS up 3.5%, ADPT up 9%, CPRX up 6.7%, GERN up 2%, TWST, TXG,VCYT all up over 2%. XBI flat at $89. PFE up 1% to $28.11.
Update-2 …5/8 11:45–MOmentum fading, raise a little cash. Maybe my trigger finger is too nervous but there are some signs that our model for SMID spec stocks and trading has turned negative. For starters the S&P 500 at 5186 is close to a value that one astute analyst is calling a trading top.
More important for our biotech model our list of SMID Life Science stocks is broadly a red screen with the exception of: ABOS,DNLI and SUPN. The XBI rally broke under $90 which was caused me to sell to protect gains. MEDtech is also weak which could mean a broader correction with most growth stocks near 2024 highs. However PFE is up 1.76% and VRTX is up 2.97%. The XLV is at $142,
Update-1 …I’ve been on a 4 -day vacation weekend so here is review of biotech and healthcare stocks for the month of May and our last article on APRIL 27. Among the large caps our recent top pick was Pfizer (PFE) up over 8% to $27.77.
Looking at the major indiices and ETFs over 5 trading days :
- The major healthcare ETF we track is the XLV which is off a recent bottom and up to $142.57 up 1.6% and 4.4% YTD.
- The biotech equal weight IBB has improved up 5.01% to $133.28 but still off 1.89%YTD.
- Our recent trade the XBI has been coming back up 6.87% to $90.43 and 1.28% YTD.
So the overall performance is tracking slightly lower than the SPY which is up 8.8% YTD. Keep in mind that the healthcare sector is a defensive sector compared technology which can be more volatile but has been strong YTD. This current post is focused on SMID speculative stocks and we have developed a trading list which we update weekly. THE SMID stocks correlate to XBI performance and we went long with the XBI when the price was in the low 80s.
The stocks on the list below have been picked based on analyst reports, cash position , and product pipeline, but really with our model we want to see price momentum. The following stocks show positive price momentum over the last 3 mos: CRMD,CRNX,CYRX, GERN, NTRA,TWST,VCEL.
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Trading Window Is Open For SMID Life Science Trades
- Green screen day as FED risk fades although rate cuts are on pause. Data dependent on inflation and labor.
- XBI bellwether romps off bottom now up over 5% but tracking toward $90.
- Model below is still under development and is MOMENTUM dependent.
We are past the monthly angst of the latest FED drama and the market seems to believe interest rate risk is down. Biotech stocks do not like rising rates because they are always raising funds. Keep in mind that this list of SMID stocks is highly speculative and for experienced traders however we hope to build a portfolio of stocks that are less volatile and have M&A potential. Based on today’s follow-up action you may want to rebalance your SMID cap holdings. An alternative to trading SMID life science stocks is to own a health science fund like PRHSX or trade the XBI.
Two major issues are high treasury yieids of 5% and underperforming of small cap Indices with the IWM down 2.3% YTD and the IJR down 3.5% YTD. The ARKG is down 26.58% YTD There are several stocks that are showing gains and were good trades but nothing to tout.
LONG: ABOS, ADPT, CPRX, CRMD, CYRX, GERN, HOLX, NTRA, SUPN, VCYT, XBI.
| Company | Ticker | $ | P | % week | P | 4 wks | YTD % | 4/28/2024 | YTD | trend | |||
| P | % | ||||||||||||
| Acumen Therap | ABOS | 5.29 | 3.57 | 51.27 | -33.89 | 3.17 | -17.45 | d | |||||
| Adaptive BiioTech | ADPT | NEW | 4.11 | 5 | 2.6 | -46.94 | d | ||||||
| Catalyst Pharma | CPRX | 16.1 | 19.62 | 16.58 | 19.62 | -10.86 | 14.89 | 11.42 | d | ||||
| Caribou Biosci | CRBU | NEW | 6.29 | 20.55 | 6.17 | 8.44 | -0.175 | 3.71 | -35.25 | d | |||
| CorMedix | CRMD | NEW | 3.9 | 5.31 | 41.22 | u | |||||||
| Crenetics | CRNX | NEW | 42.12 | 18.38 | – | ||||||||
| CRSPR Therap | CRSP | 49.61 | -25 | 55.27 | 4.72 | 63.67 | -9.68 | 56.63 | 53.91 | -13.88 | d | ||
| Cryoport | CYRX | 21.75 | -42.34 | 25.24 | 9.41 | 16.09 | 14.76 | -7.26 | 16.38 | 5.75 | u | ||
| Cytokinetics | CYTK | 31 | 65.34 | -21.74 | d | ||||||||
| Denali | DNLI | 2/27 | 22 | 15.34 | -28.1 | d | |||||||
| Exelixis | EXEL | 3/4 | 22.25 | 23.75 | -1.21 | u | |||||||
| Evolent Health | EVH | 30.83 | 13.74 | 31.96 | 2.21 | 32.08 | 8.56 | 14.25 | 27.65 | -16.29 | – | ||
| Geron | GERN | 3.19 | 9.24 | 3.22 | 3.59 | 2.29 | 17.44 | -5.37 | 3.79 | 79.62 | u | ||
| Immatics | IMTX | 9.3 | 9.9 | 20.88 | 13.66 | 10 | -4.94 | – | |||||
| Natera | NTRA | NEW | 60 | 91.66 | 46.33 | u | |||||||
| Pacific Biosci | PACB | 11.29 | 55.68 | 11.58 | -1.7 | 8.59 | 28.4 | 5 | 1.47 | -85 | d | ||
| Recursion Pharm | RXRX | 10.75 | 8.12 | (17.65) | d | ||||||||
| Roivant | ROIV | 11.4 | 11.03 | -1.78 | d | ||||||||
| Supernus | SUPN | 40.3 | 12.3 | 41.61 | 2.29 | 29.23 | 6.04 | -18.05 | 30.07 | 3.9 | u | ||
| Twist Biosci | TWST | 12/2 | 18 | 3.76 | 54.39 | 34.03 | 31.54 | (14.3) | -U | ||||
| 10x Genomics | TXG | 12/2 | 47.84 | 56.58 | 30.52 | 55.27 | 27.59 | -50.79 | d | ||||
| Vericel | VCEL | 31 | 34.75 | -2.09 | 31.93 | 46.05 | 29.32 | u | |||||
| Veracyte | VCYT | 24.89 | 39.43 | 26.67 | 2.46 | 28.27 | 8.23 | 19.13 | 19.31 | -29.81 | d | ||
| SPDR Biotech | XBI | 86.99 | 14.75 | 90.39 | 1.12 | 87.62 | 20.36 | 5.57 | 83.49 | -6.51 | – | ||
| 4/6 | %YTD | ||||||||||||
| wildcard | |||||||||||||
| ArkGenomics | ARKG | 35.28 | 32.81 | 18.88 | 16.22 | 23.18 | -29.35 | d | |||||