Clinical Diagnostic Stocks Were Hit By Bio-Bubble or Revenue Miss
Potential upside in EXAS, NSTG and NEOG all are Rayno Dx and Tools picks.
- With “momentum trading” days over for now, revenue growth is the focus.
- Companies with disappointing Q1 revenues: Abaxis (ABAX), Alere (ALR), Response Genetics (RGDX) and Quidel (QDEL). Q2 recovery will be key.
- Many of these stocks are losers YTD after a great year in 2013; stocks peaked in Feb/March.
- Rayno Dx and Tools winners YTD: Illumina (ILMN), Sequenom (SQNM), Hologic (HOLX), Exact Sciences (EXAS) and ThermoFisher (TMO).
- GenProbe acquisition by Hologic (HOLX) is gold standard for valuation at P/S of 5.
- Look for traction with ExactSci (EXAS), NanoString Tech (NSTG) and Neogen (NEOG ) with upgrade support from bankers.
- Illumina (ILMN) and Pacific Bio (PACB) are sequencing plays but are not in analysis below.
Clinical Diagnostics and Tools Stocks
| Company | Ticker | Price | Rev | RevQ4 | Rev | Price | 2014 | P/S | PE | PEG | P/B | Market | |
| My’11 | 2012 | 2013 | 2013 | 31-May | RevEst | Cap | |||||||
| GenProbe* | GPRO | 80 | 642 | 143 | $-000- | sold 66 | 576 | 5 | 64 | 1.9 | 700 | $B | |
| Abaxis | ABAX | 28 | 179 | 40.8 | 176.4 | 41 | 198 | 4.7 | 67 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 0.937 | |
| Alere | ALR | 36 | 2,710 | 772 | 3,030 | 35.8 | 3,040 | 1.2 | n/a | n/a | 2 | 3.58 | |
| Cepheid | CPHD | 31 | 331 | 113.3 | 401.3 | 45 | 459.7 | 6.8 | n/a | n/a | 8.8 | 3.14 | |
| ExactSci | EXAS | 4.15 | 1 | 4.1 | 13.48 | 11.6 | 328 | n/a | n/a | 7.4 | 1.12 | ||
| GenMark Dx | GNMK | 11 | 25 | 16 | n/a | n/a | 4.4 | 0.458 | |||||
| GenomHlth | GHDX | 26 | 236 | 68.8 | 259.2 | 26 | 282 | 2.9 | n/a | n/a | 5.8 | 0.812 | |
| Hologic | HOLX | 2,160 | 612.4 | 2,490 | 24.4 | 2,480 | 2.4 | n/a | n/a | 3.4 | 6.75 | ||
| Immucor** | BLUD | 20 | 345 | 83.3 | sold 27 | n/a | 5.5 | 21 | 2.2 | n/a | n/a | ||
| Luminex | LMNX | 20 | 203 | 55.2 | 213.4 | 17 | 231 | 3.4 | 46 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 0.722 | |
| Meridian | VIVO | 23 | 179 | 44.8 | 188.7 | 20.4 | 193.6 | 4.2 | 23 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 0.846 | |
| NanostringT | NSTG | New | 10.1 | $31.50 | 14.9 | 47.9 | 6.3 | n/a | n/a | 7 | 0.269 | ||
| Nanosphere | NSPH | 3.4 | 10 | 1.35 | 19 | 9.4 | n/a | n/a | 3 | 0.136 | |||
| Neogen | NEOG | 41 | 194 | 59.6 | 225 | 37.8 | 245.7 | 6.9 | 50 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 1.39 | |
| Orasure | OSUR | 89.4 | 28.8 | 98.9 | 6.32 | 103.6 | 3.5 | n/a | n/a | 2.3 | 352.9 | ||
| Qiagen | QGEN | 20 | 1,250 | 363 | 1,310 | 23 | 1,370 | 3.9 | 79 | 9.4 | 2 | 5.35 | |
| Quidel | QDEL | 15 | 156 | 50.2 | 175.4 | 22.7 | 175.7 | 5 | 54 | n/a | 3.4 | 776.8 | |
| Resp Genet | RGDX | 2 | 18.1 | 22.2 | 2 | n/a | n/a | 16 | 0.04 | ||||
| Sequenom | SQNM | 71.5 | 45.1 | 162.4 | 3.07 | 214 | 1.3 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.357 | ||
| SeraCare# | SRLS | 3.7 | 46.2 | 11 | sold 4 | 43.5 | 1.8 | 36 | n/a | 40 | n/a | ||
| Techne | TECH | 81 | 312 | 84 | 330 | 87.8 | 357 | 9.4 | 29 | 2.3 | 4 | 3,250 | |
| ThermoFish. | TMO | 3470 | 13,090 | 116.9 | 17 | 2.7 | 15 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 46,640 | |||
| TrinityBio | TRIB | New | 24 | 110 | 4.9 | 59 | 2.9 | 3 | 0.54 | ||||
| ** sold for $1.97B to TBG Capital | #sold for $80M | ||||||||||||
| * sold for | $3.7B to Hologic | Names in BOLD are on focus list | |||||||||||