Update-4 7/15 1:30P…Volatlity hits COVID vaccine players; BNTX, INO, NVAX down, MRNA up.
- Comment from CNBC contributor: “maybe vaccine news is priced in”, shows how hard it is to play daily news flow on coronavirus vaccine stocks.
- Strong Coronavirus stocks as of mid-day trading: GNMK MRNA TDOC VIR with XBI up 1.7% to $116 level.
- AstraZeneca (AZN) up 7.37% to $58 level on COVID vaccine report fo Thursday.
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Update-3 7/14…Moderna News Spikes Market at 2:59P ,NAZ up 0.94%.
- Moderna (MRNA) up 4.54% (higher AH) will start Ph 3 Trial Jy 27, MRNA added to NASDAQ-100, upgraded yesterday by Jeffries.
- Most coronavirus stocks are up but need to digest late MRNA news. Added XBI early in day, up 2.55% to $114.80.
- Large cap biopharmas green screen day,IBB up 2.12% to $140 level.
- DOW up 2.13%
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Update-2 As of 7/13 10;35 am trading: vaccine stocks hot again.
Biotech (BNTX) up 14% to $80 on FDA Fast Track designation of COVID-19 vaccines.
- My recent long biotech trades in the money: AXDX, HOLX, PACB, VCYT, XHE.
- Recent trades still red:all shorts, XNCR.
- Core positions in pandemic trade: GILD, GNMK, TDOC, VIR. Plus you have to be in major large cap biopharmas: ABBV, BMY, GSK, MRK, RHHBY,
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Update-1 NASDAQ Record Close to 10,617 up 0.66%, XBI down 1%. Don’t fight the tape?
- Gilead Sciences (GILD) remdesivir results allay some fears of virus with reduction of COVID-19 death risk but more data is needed; major study results coming in August.
- BioNTech (BNTX) up 7.4% on optimist timeline of mRNA vaccine for Q4 filing.
- Vir Biotechnology (VIR) up 3.2% to $48.71 after closing public offering for $345M.
- US Cases Rise led by California.
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Coronavirus Stocks-Take a Breather the Easy Trades Have Been Made
Biotech Bull Market is Intact but Look to Rebalancing and Raising Cash
COVID Risks are Rising and Economic Recovery is Pushed Out
Work at Home Theme Boosts New Software and Telemedicine Access
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July 9. DOW 25,706 S&P 3152 NASDAQ 10547
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The coronavirus trade is not over because COVID Cases are spiking and the scientific news buffets stocks every day. The gains since mid-March are huge so that adding to existing positions in your portfolio will become more difficult. Moreover trends with individual coronavirus stocks will take longer to assess until we get a few months of earnings and clinical data for major vaccine programs. But we are still in a bull market in biotech which we called last fall and early in the pandemic. Investors and even small traders are flush with cash and have a risk appetite for growth and technology. Rotation out of biotech and tech are unlikely. Retail,energy and industrial stocks are stuck in a weak economy. Note that the bull market in technology stocks has rivaled that of biotechs with the XLK up 18% YTD. With a potential second lockdown from COVID in spiking regions an economic recovery has been pushed out.
Momentum traders have big winners on a daily basis.I have made huge gains on weekly trades on small speculative stocks with news.Its a bit frothy!
As of July 9 YTD here is where we are on life science stocks in general and the fight against the coronavirus pandemic:
Selected Core Holdings: GILD up 15% YTD, GNMK up 288.6% YTD, TDOC up 173% YTD.
Major biotech ETFs: IBB up 16.65% at $140.65. XBI up 22% YTD at $116.1, XLV flat at $100.95.
Core Mutual Fund Holdings: FBIOX up 11.4% at $24.61, PRHSX up 10% at $89.54. Two large cap growth companies focused in life science tools and diagnostics are Danaher (DHR) and Thermo Fisher (TMO).
Coronavirus stocks at or or near new 52 week highs: GNMK HOLX NVAX QDEL TDOC
Antibody therapy leaders: GILD REGN VIR (emerging)
Large cap leaders: ABBV AMGN REGN RHHBY VRTX
Individual stocks will become harder to pick and more volatile with clinical data news and a summer doldrums after the upcoming earnings.Traders can still do well with all the volatility. Let’s see how life science stocks perform after a major 10 % correction usually in late August and through September.
Here are some points it consider if you choose to raise cash or re-balance your life science portfolio.
- It has become widely accepted that a coronavirus vaccine will be needed in the long run to fight the virus until herd immunity evolves.The COVID vaccine trades were the easiest early and established current small cap leaders : BNTX INO MRNA NVAX.
- Many diagnostic companies’ stocks have soared on expectation of high growth for COVID testing. However we are at an early stage for assessing market share and product performance of all platforms; PCR/molecular, antibody and now antigen tests.
- Several companies are working on potential breakthroughs for antibody therapies.By early Q4 we should learn more about the clinical efficacy of antibody therapy undergo ing clinical trials.Look for news from Gilead Sciences and Regeneron and a emerging companies such as Vir Biotechnology.