Update-1… Climate Change and El Nino   12/28/15

Even though the full impact of El Nino has not hit the West Coast of the US as of yet there is plenty of unusual weather:

Drought in Australia, floods in the UK and tornadoes in TX.

Harsh weather hits Texas,Ok, MS and NM.

As oil drops to $37 handle solar energy gets a boost from the budget deal and investment tax credit.

2015 record warmth. El Nino plus climate change.

Farmers hit by El Nino. Coffee and Cattle.

Confused yet? Well colder weather is coming to the US in late January and Nat Gas futures are soaring today up 7.53% at 2.237. A low of 1.767 was hit on Dec 17. On 5/31/2008 Nat Gas futures were 13.35!!


Wet Weather Predicted for January As El Nino Kicks In

Epic Holiday Skiing If You Liked Storms and Cold Light Powder

A series of storms dumped a lot of snow in the Sierras with Mammoth Mountain getting 69 inches in December, 36 inches over the past week and 125 season to date. Very cold weather assured light powder almost as good as the cold smoke of Montana resorts. Despite all the snow we are only tracking we did last year in December although on a much bigger base because of 56 inches in November. In the last really big year 2010-2011 with a total snowfall of 668 inches, Mammoth received  209 inches of snow in December. There was way too much snow that month with 8 feet falling during the holidays. Lift 8 had 25 minute lift lines so there was little skiing.

Tahoe has 172 inches of snow season to date with Kirkwood a bit higher at 194 inches and 20 inches in the latest storm. Conditions have been challenging however with high winds closing many lifts and temperature in the single digits. High pressure is now building in the region with a minor cold storm on Monday. Powder and packed powder conditions prevail.

Although dry conditions will prevail next week, Howard Schekter expects an ENSO induced condition with more drought relief in January. Stormy weather will shift to the South Central states next week with dry weather in San Francisco forecasted by Accuweather through January 4. NOAA shows high pressure dominating the West over the next week followed by below average precipitation for the Northwest over 6- 10 days. The El Nino pattern is forecasted to kick in by early January with above average precip from NorCal through the lower tier states then up the East Coast. Temperature would remain above average in the Northern tier states.

Watch for this pattern to shift from North to West.

In summary we are still under an El Nino advisory despite dry conditions in SoCal. ENSO neutral or even La Nina conditions are expected by late spring of 2016. Read the detailed NOAA ENSO discussion in the above inks for more information.

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