Update-4 Mixed stock market in healthcare and biotech but in an overall weak day as FED and CPI looms. IBB down 0.62% to $132 level.
- Abbvie (ABBV) beats with Revenue of $58.04B an increase of 3.3% but Humira biosimilars weigh on profit forecast ; pipeline and Botox looks good. New immunology drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq booster immunology sales with total revenues including Humira decline expected to from $28.8B in 2022 to $23.2B in 2026.
- Vertex beat on earnings and product revenue $8.9B an 18% increase.Net income up avert further selling at $292 level.Company is a leader in cystic fibrosis with a partnership deal with CRISPR Therapeutics for gene editing for hemoglobinopathies.
Update-3 …2/6/23…Investors shift back to large cap biopharma with GILD up 2.67% to $86 level with a Fwd PE of 11.67 and a Div of 3.46%, Trodelvy breast cancer drug gets a new indication.
Regeneron (REGN) hits new highs at $794 beats estimates on Dupixent strength.
Earnings review and metrics for all large cap biopharmas by end of the week.Vertex reports tomorrow. Abbvie on Thursday.
Leading large cap stocks: REGN, GILD, VRTX, BIIB, MRK.
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Update-2 …2/1/23…Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) beats again stock is up over 3% to $588 handle. Gives bullish outlook for 2023 with 7% growth to $45.3B. Full year 2022 revenue up 15% to $44.92B with EPS $23.24. Brilliant management with financial savvy and M&A in Life Science Tools and Diagnostics.
See this post from 2015, why would I sell my TMO a TOP Pick??…I said about TMO in 2014, “best managed Company in sector“….!..The lesson is look for companies to bet on for the long term.
FED raises rates 0.25% no surprises and market turns green as Powell speaks. NAZ up 1.54% as of 3P EST.
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Update-1 1/31/23…A Great Start to 2023
January 2023.ends well with a green screen. Many of our small cap shares were up and we added two more SMID biotech stocks: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) at $51and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) at $42. Stops if down 5%.All the major indices had a strong day up over 1%. All sectors were strong but consumer discretionary, materials and industrials led the day.
- The XBI was up 2.07% at $88.90. The IBB was up 1.30% to $136.90.
- The IWM was strong up 2.43% to $191.48.
- The NASDAQ -100 (QQQ) was up 10.64% YTD.
- Regeneron (REGN) was up 2.99% to $758.47 on Dupixent revenues with earnings to report on 2/3.
Large cap biopharma earnings to follow this week. FED day tomorrow.
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Sector Shift Stalls Healthcare Stocks-Big week Ahead with Earnings and FED
- Healthcare stocks were weak last week with the XLV down 2.2% YTD.
- Small cap biotech stocks remain frothy with good gains.
- Trading this week can be perilous ahead of FED and major earnings reports.
Last week saw big 4% gains in the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)and Infotech stocks aa swell as major sectors across the board. Our big winners in 2022 have reversed and are weak in 2023 with ABBV down 9.68% and MRK down 4.3% YTD.Concerns about sales growth from blockbuster drugs such as Humira from Abbvie and Keytruda from Merck curbed buyers. But Abbvie did a good job at #JPM23 showing how the Company expanded their pipeline. UNH also took a 10% hit since mid -December on downgrades and earnings revisions. But all three stocks remain core holdings longer term in a healthcare portfolio. Our recent small cap trades are shown in this post show big gains from 2022.
Biotech stocks are off to a great start in 2023 with the IBB up 4.5% and the XBI up 7.7%. Small cap speculative life science stocks have made big run-ups in 2023 maybe because of tax selling late in 2022 and expectations of less aggressive FED after this weeks’ 0.25% rate rise. Some macro analysts have cautioned traders on speculation in these stocks saying Powell might actually call them out!! The problem with FED Meetings is the Q&A where maestro Powell may go off script and create volatility in the markets.
Stocks are weak across the screen today but GE Healthcare is up over 3% to $72 level today the spinout from parent GE doing very well since #JPM23. Keep in the back of your mind that the Biden Administration has a plan in September to target companies for excessive pricing through legislation. Regeneron (REGN) was down 1% today despite news on Dupixent and an upgrade by Cowen with targets in mid $800s.
We are all annoyed by it but yes its all about a “soft landing” and the FED.
| Model | |||||||||||
| PORTFOLIO | |||||||||||
| 2020 | 2020 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | ||||||
| Stock/ETF | Ticker | Price | Wgt | Price | Price | P | 1Y | Price | YTD | ||
| 10/25 | % | 12/31 | % Perf | 12/31/21 | 12/31/22 | %Perf | 1/28 | % Perf | |||
| iShares NAZ Bio | IBB* | 136 | 20 | 151.5 | 25.7 | 152.62 | 130.55 | 10.96 | 137.23 | 4.52 | |
| iShares Russell 2k | IWM | 163 | 10 | 196.4 | 18.3 | 222.45 | 174.36 | -1 | 189.58 | 8.73 | |
| Merck* | MRK | 80 | 10 | 81.77 | -10 | 76.64 | 110.81 | 30.78 | 105.38 | -5.02 | |
| United Health | UNH | 330 | 20 | 350.7 | 27.19 | 502 | 530.27 | 5.3 | 486.05 | -8.32 | |
| SPDR S&P Bio | XBI | 117 | 10 | 140.8 | 48 | 111.96 | 83 | 4.54 | 89.39 | 7.7 | |
| Healthcare SPDR | XLV | 108 | 20 | 113.4 | 14.71 | 140.89 | 135.88 | 3.9 | 132.86 | -2.2 | |
| T.Rowe Hlth Sci | PRHSX | n/a | 5 | 99.65 | n/a | 104 | 89 | 3.71 | 90.08 | 0.29 | |
| iShares U.S MedT | IHI | 50 | 5 | 54.83 | 65.85 | 52.57 | -4.15 | 54.06 | 2.83 | ||
| MedTech* | ABT | new | 5 | 123.5 | 127.46 | 109.83 | -8.71 | 109.95 | 0.15 | ||
| Tracking Comp | |||||||||||
| ARK Genomic | ARKG | 93.26 | 61.24 | 28.23 | -22.57 | 34 | 20.65 | ||||
| Direx3X Bull | LABU | 7.66 | -43.94 | 8.51 | 20.37 | ||||||
| FIDO Biotech | FBIOX | 25.18 | 19.35 | 16.04 | 10.95 | 16.82 | 3.32 | ||||
| FiIDO MEDtech | FSMEX | 76.15 | 83.18 | 61.58 | -5.14 | 63.88 | 3.73 | ||||
| DOW | DIA | 310 | 363.32 | 331.34 | -0.57 | 339.61 | 2.5 | ||||
| S&P 500 | SPY | 379 | 475 | 382.41 | -5.93 | 405.68 | 6.08 | ||||
| NASDAQ-100 | QQQ | 315 | 397.85 | 266.33 | -13.15 | 296.26 | 11.26 | ||||
| Top Biopharmas | |||||||||||
| Abbvie | ABBV | 161.64 | 7.58 | 146.28 | (9..49) | ||||||
| Bristol Myers Sq | BMY | 71.58 | 13.45 | 72.45 | (0.690 | ||||||
| Gilead Sci | GILD | 85.39 | 24.47 | 83.73 | -2.47 | ||||||
| Eli Lilly | LLY | 362.94 | 44.52 | 342.1 | -6.49 | ||||||
| Merck | MRK | 110.94 | 30.78 | 105.38 | -5.02 | ||||||
| Regeneron | REGN | 721.7 | 22.03 | 742.83 | -2.96 | ||||||
| Vertex | VRTX | 288.78 | 40.85 | 321.45 | 11.31 | ||||||